Year: 2025

Dollar came under broad pressure in early US trade after delayed employment data confirmed a deeper-than-expected loss of momentum in the labor market. The October payrolls collapse was the key shock. A steep contraction marked the third negative print in six months, a development that few had anticipated. To compound the damage, both August and […]

The post NFP Shock Slams Dollar, March Fed Cut Now More Likely Than Not appeared first on ActionForex.

Dollar came under broad pressure in early US trade after delayed employment data confirmed a deeper-than-expected loss of momentum in the labor market. The October payrolls collapse was the key shock. A steep contraction marked the third negative print in six months, a development that few had anticipated. To compound the damage, both August and […]

The post NFP Shock Slams Dollar, March Fed Cut Now More Likely Than Not appeared first on ActionForex.

Summary of the comments from WH Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett:NEC Director Kevin Hassett said there is plenty of room to cut interest rates, arguing that US rates are out of touch with the rest of the world, even as he described the underlying jobs trajectory as solid, noting recent data were distorted by the government shutdown. He said President Trump believes rates could be lower, but emphasized that any Fed action requires consensus built on facts and data. Hassett said deficit reduction is critical to lowering rates and expressed confidence the economy can return to 3% growth with 1% inflation, citing a productivity boom, particularly from AI-driven gains that are boosting worker productivity and wages. He was bullish on the labor market into 2026, argued that sustainable growth requires supply-side expansion north of 4%, and rejected the idea that the US is falling behind China, pointing to leadership in semiconductors, deregulation plans, and rapid progress in energy generation. On trade, Hassett said the administration is confident the Supreme Court will rule in its favor on tariffs, but noted Sections 232 and 301 remain available as backstops if needed. He also said Trump will announce a Fed chair nominee soon and expressed confidence there will never be another government shutdown.

Headlines from the White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett’s interview on CNBC:

• There is plenty of room to cut rates
• US rates are out of touch with the rest of the world
• on the jobs data sees a solid upward trajectory.
• Trump thinks interest rates could be lower.
• If I were there, I’d have to negotiate with the rest of the committee.
• Fed would have to see what kind of consensus could be reached.
• Thinks we can reach 3% growth and 1% inflation again
• Deficit reduction is a key to the economy to lower rates.
• We are pretty positive that the Supreme Court will rule in our favor, and if not we have backup plans.
• We have deals 232s and 301s to use as a backstop for tariffs if the Supreme Court rules against the tariffs.
• If Trump has a good reason, and I agree with it, I will present it to the others at the Fed
• Need consensus based on facts, data.
• On jobs data, he is bullish on 2026
• The jobs data was colored by the governement shutdown.
• ON GDP growth, looking at supply side, need to have north of 4%
• On jobs, AI, seeing AI-trained workers have increased their productivity and wages.
• Does not think we are falling behind China.
• We have the best chips, plan to deregulate.
• We’re catching up fast on energy generation.
• Trump will announce the Fed chair nominee soon
• Productivity boom is coloring all the data.
• He is confident there will never be another shutdown.

Earlier today, the latest US jobs and retail sales data painted a mixed picture of the economy, shaped in part by distortions from the recent government shutdown. Nonfarm payrolls showed a decline in October followed by a rebound in November, making it difficult to gauge the true trend in hiring, while the unemployment rate moved up to 4.6% from 4.4% which could be a worry but keep the Fed on the downside tilt.

On the consumer side, October retail sales were flat at the headline level, but the control group rose a solid 0.8%, pointing to firmer underlying demand that feeds directly into GDP. Together, the reports suggest moderating but still resilient economic momentum, leaving markets data-dependent and keeping the focus on whether growth can remain supported without reigniting inflation pressures.

Hassett was the overwhelming favorite to be the next Fed chair a couple weeks ago. He has now been replaced as the favorite by Kevin Warsh according to Polymarket, but it is close at 45% to 42%.

For your guide:

• Section 301 and Section 232 are two US trade-law tools used to impose tariffs, but they serve different purposes and carry different market implications. Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 is aimed at addressing unfair foreign trade practices, such as intellectual property theft, forced technology transfers, or discriminatory policies. Under Section 301, the US Trade Representative (USTR) investigates whether another country’s practices are unreasonable or burden US commerce and, if so, can impose targeted tariffs, quotas, or other trade restrictions. These measures are often country-specific and product-specific, and they tend to be used as negotiating leverage in broader trade talks.
• Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, by contrast, is grounded in national security concerns. It allows the US Department of Commerce to investigate whether imports of certain goods—such as steel, aluminum, autos, or critical supply-chain items—threaten national security. If a risk is found, the president can impose tariffs or quotas regardless of country, making Section 232 actions broader and more structural. Markets typically view Section 232 tariffs as more persistent and harder to unwind, since they are justified on security grounds rather than trade imbalances.

For traders and markets, Section 301 tariffs are often seen as tactical and negotiable, while Section 232 tariffs are viewed as strategic and long-lasting. Both can affect inflation, supply chains, corporate margins, currencies, and risk sentiment, but Section 232 actions generally

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Fundamental backdrop: mixed US data weighs on the dollar

The USDCAD moved lower following a heavy US data dump, with the October jobs report showing a decline, followed by a rebound in November, a pattern heavily distorted by the recent government shutdown. At the same time, October retail sales were unchanged at the headline level, but the control group jumped a strong 0.8%, pointing to firmer underlying consumer demand. The initial market reaction saw the USD weaken, dragging USDCAD lower before a modest rebound.

Technical picture: moving average caps upside

Despite the bounce higher earlier in the day, the USDCAD price remains below a key resistance level, keeping sellers in control. On the hourly chart, the 100-hour moving average continues to define the topside, and has now repelled price for the fifth time since November 26. Ahead of the jobs report, USDCAD chopped sideways, allowing the moving average to drift lower toward price, but sellers once again leaned against that level.

The 100-hour MA currently sits at 1.37802 and continues to slope lower. A move above that level is required to give buyers the minimum technical victory needed to trigger a deeper corrective bounce. Absent a break above, the sellers retain control. The current price trades near 1.3748.

Upside targets: what buyers need

If buyers can push and hold above the 100-hour moving average, the next upside targets come into view:

• 1.3799–1.3800: swing lows from December 8

• 1.3827: falling 200-hour moving average

• 1.3839: 50% retracement of the rally from the mid-June 2025 low

Only sustained trade above these levels would shift the broader short-term bias more firmly toward the upside.

Downside risk: sellers eye key swing support

On the downside, a break below today’s low at 1.3738 would open the door for a retest of a key swing-area floor between 1.3720 and 1.3726, a zone that dates back to August and September. A move below that area—and staying below it—would increase the risk of renewed downside momentum.

Watch the video analysis

In the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving USDCAD in real time, outlining the bias, the risk-defining levels, and the next upside and downside targets that matter most.

Be aware. Be prepared.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.