Year: 2025

  • US S&P global manufacturing PMI for May 52.0 versus 52.3 preliminary

    • Preliminary 52.3
    • Prior 50.2
    • Final S&P global manufacturing PMI for May 52.0

    From Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P
    Global Market Intelligence

    “The rise in the PMI during May masks worrying
    developments under the hood of the US manufacturing
    economy. While growth of new orders picked up and
    suppliers were reportedly busier as companies built
    up their inventory levels at an unprecedented rate, the
    common theme was a temporary surge in demand as
    manufacturers and their customers worry about supply
    issues and rising prices.

    “These concerns were not without basis: supplier
    delays have risen to the highest since October 2022,
    and incidences of price hikes are at their highest since
    November 2022, blamed in most cases on tariffs.
    Smaller firms, and those in consumer facing markets,
    appear worst hit so far by the impact of tariffs on supply
    and prices.

    “Encouragingly, manufacturers regained some optimism
    in May after sentiment had been hit hard by tariff
    announcements in April, partly reflecting the pauses
    on new levies. However, uncertainty clearly remains
    elevated amid the fluid tariff environment, and factories
    have so far shown a reluctance to expand headcounts in
    the face of such volatility.”

    The details from S&P GLobal:

    Headline PMI Data

    • PMI: 52.0 in May (up from 50.2 in March and April)

    • Best reading since February; indicates solid growth in the manufacturing sector

    🔹 New Orders

    • Rose to the strongest level in 3 months

    • Domestic demand was the primary driver

    • Export sales remained weak; only slight recovery after April’s sharp fall

    • Clients were front-running tariffs, placing orders early

    🔹 Input Inventories

    • Record-high increase in input inventories (largest in 18 years of data)

    • Stockpiling driven by concerns over tariffs and supply chain disruption

    🔹 Production & Output

    • Production volumes trimmed slightly for third straight month

    • Backlogs of work continued to fall modestly

    • Firms had sufficient capacity to meet demand

    🔹 Employment

    • Employment rose for the first time in 3 months

    • Growth was marginal due to difficulty finding qualified workers

    🔹 Prices

    • Input price inflation remained high, though eased to a 3-month low

    • Tariffs cited as key reason for cost increases; suppliers passed costs on

    • Factory gate prices (output charges) rose at the fastest pace since Nov 2022

    🔹 Supply Chains

    • Supplier delivery delays worsened to the worst level since Oct 2022

    • Delays linked to stock shortages and tariff-related disruptions

    🔹 Finished Goods Inventories

    • Rose in May for the first time since November

    🔹 Business Confidence

    • Outlook improved to a 3-month high

    • Optimism driven by expectations that tariff-related disruptions may ease within a year

    This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

  • US S&P global manufacturing PMI for May 52.0 versus 52.3 preliminary

    • Preliminary 52.3
    • Prior 50.2
    • Final S&P global manufacturing PMI for May 52.0

    From Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P
    Global Market Intelligence

    “The rise in the PMI during May masks worrying
    developments under the hood of the US manufacturing
    economy. While growth of new orders picked up and
    suppliers were reportedly busier as companies built
    up their inventory levels at an unprecedented rate, the
    common theme was a temporary surge in demand as
    manufacturers and their customers worry about supply
    issues and rising prices.

    “These concerns were not without basis: supplier
    delays have risen to the highest since October 2022,
    and incidences of price hikes are at their highest since
    November 2022, blamed in most cases on tariffs.
    Smaller firms, and those in consumer facing markets,
    appear worst hit so far by the impact of tariffs on supply
    and prices.

    “Encouragingly, manufacturers regained some optimism
    in May after sentiment had been hit hard by tariff
    announcements in April, partly reflecting the pauses
    on new levies. However, uncertainty clearly remains
    elevated amid the fluid tariff environment, and factories
    have so far shown a reluctance to expand headcounts in
    the face of such volatility.”

    The details from S&P GLobal:

    Headline PMI Data

    • PMI: 52.0 in May (up from 50.2 in March and April)

    • Best reading since February; indicates solid growth in the manufacturing sector

    🔹 New Orders

    • Rose to the strongest level in 3 months

    • Domestic demand was the primary driver

    • Export sales remained weak; only slight recovery after April’s sharp fall

    • Clients were front-running tariffs, placing orders early

    🔹 Input Inventories

    • Record-high increase in input inventories (largest in 18 years of data)

    • Stockpiling driven by concerns over tariffs and supply chain disruption

    🔹 Production & Output

    • Production volumes trimmed slightly for third straight month

    • Backlogs of work continued to fall modestly

    • Firms had sufficient capacity to meet demand

    🔹 Employment

    • Employment rose for the first time in 3 months

    • Growth was marginal due to difficulty finding qualified workers

    🔹 Prices

    • Input price inflation remained high, though eased to a 3-month low

    • Tariffs cited as key reason for cost increases; suppliers passed costs on

    • Factory gate prices (output charges) rose at the fastest pace since Nov 2022

    🔹 Supply Chains

    • Supplier delivery delays worsened to the worst level since Oct 2022

    • Delays linked to stock shortages and tariff-related disruptions

    🔹 Finished Goods Inventories

    • Rose in May for the first time since November

    🔹 Business Confidence

    • Outlook improved to a 3-month high

    • Optimism driven by expectations that tariff-related disruptions may ease within a year

    This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

  • Canada S&P Global May manufacturing PMI 46.1 versus 45.3 in April

    • Prior month 45.3
    • Canada may manufacturing PMI 46.1

    Looking at the details from the S&P global:

    • Headline PMI: 46.1 in May (up from 45.3 in April)

      • Below 50.0 for the 4th consecutive month → continued contraction

    • Production & Orders:

      • Output and new orders declined again; contractions remained steep

      • International demand especially weak; export orders fell more than domestic

      • Clients hesitant to place new orders due to tariff uncertainty

    • Inventories & Supply Chains:

      • Input and finished goods inventories cut further to reduce stock costs

      • Some firms dipped into inventories due to supplier delays

      • Vendor delivery times worsened again amid port congestion and customs delays

    • Prices & Inflation:

      • Input cost inflation accelerated, near March’s 31-month peak

      • Tariffs cited as key reason for higher input prices (e.g., livestock, metals, plastics)

      • Firms raised output prices, though the rate of increase was at a 3-month low

    • Employment & Capacity:

      • Job losses for 4th straight month; steepest since June 2020

      • Backlogs of orders declined but less sharply than in April

      • Spare capacity remains elevated

    • Purchasing Activity:

      • Purchasing volumes cut for 5th straight month (since January)

      • Contraction in buying reflects lower production needs

    • Business Sentiment:

      • Confidence remained subdued

      • Hopes for macro stability, but trade policy concerns dominate outlook

      • U.S. trade flows remain weak

    Paul Smith,
    Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence
    said:

    “With manufacturers continuing to be hit by tariffs and
    trade uncertainty, May saw the sector experience a
    further significant contraction. Although declines were
    softer than in April, both production and new orders
    again fell to noticeable degrees amid reports that
    market demand was weak – again largely because of
    tariffs.

    “Moreover, the hard to predict nature of trade policies
    means the outlook for production remains extremely
    uncertain and given the recent scale of the downturn
    in the sector, job losses are mounting. Indeed, latest
    data showed the steepest decline in employment since
    the height of the COVID pandemic in 2020 with spare
    capacity and rising costs also an increasing problem for
    many firms.

    “Unsurprisingly, tariffs remain the primary source of
    price pressures, whilst also leading to an intensification
    of supply side delays. No wonder firms therefore
    remained circumspect in their purchasing and inventory
    management decisions during May, with the survey again
    revealing declines in both input buying and stocks.”

    This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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