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Markets:
It’s a brand new week and a brand new month, but it’s the same old story for the dollar.
The greenback is getting roughed up once again as trade uncertainty continues amid the policy incoherence on Trump tariffs. On Friday, the US court moved to temporarily reinstate the reciprocal tariffs before Trump himself threatened to double steel and aluminum tariffs. And then, we saw things hit a bit of a roadblock with China. The latter in particular is something that might stir up more pessimism in the week(s) ahead.
As such, risk sentiment is slightly on the defensive and the dollar is not finding much love. EUR/USD moved up from 1.1370 to 1.1435 before keeping around 1.1415 now – up 0.6% on the day. Meanwhile, USD/JPY is slipping all the way down to 142.75 now – down 0.9% today.
The dollar is not seeing much reprieve elsewhere, with GBP/USD up 0.6% to 1.3535 and AUD/USD up 0.7% to 0.6480 currently. USD/CAD is also marked down by 0.3% to near 1.3700 with the low earlier touching 1.3675.
European stocks are leaning towards the softer side, siding with US futures amid the ongoing uncertainty on trade/tariffs. S&P 500 futures are down 0.4% but at least off earlier lows, with tech shares lagging a little more to start the week.
In other markets, gold is seen picking up nicely amid the latest developments with the precious metal up 2% to $3,354. Meanwhile, oil is also a strong beneficiary as OPEC+ moved to hike output by less than expected over the weekend. WTI crude is up over 4% to $63.40, extending gains after the opening gap higher from earlier in the day.
This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.
The market is pricing just one rate cut, on the other hand. The BoC has already cut quite aggressively and even delivered some insurance cuts for the trade war.
The underlying inflation rate in Canada has been rising steadily since last December and with the aggressive monetary easing and easing in trade war tensions, we could see upward pressure on inflation to remain.
This is what led the market to price out the second rate cut and if the economic activity picks up, we could see the market price out the remaining rate cut bets.
This week we have the BoC rate decision and a hold is widely expected. I would also expect the central bank to sound more hawkish in light of the recent setback on inflation.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.
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