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  • Fed chair Powell: Future path of monetary policy driven by data and risk assessments

    The Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell is speaking on the economy and policy and says:

    • Future path of monetary policy driven by data and risk assessments

    • Data before the U.S. government shutdown suggested growth may be better than expected

    • Right now there is no ‘risk-free’ path for monetary policy

    • Data in hand suggest current economy is where it was in September

    • Downside risks to U.S. job market have risen

    • Rising risks to job market justified September interest rate cut

    • Available data show tariffs pushing up price pressures

    • Recent data point to low-hire, low-fire employment landscape

    • U.S. central bank has other data beyond government sources to use

    • May be approaching end of balance sheet contraction ‘in coming months’

    • Sees signs some parts of money markets seeing tighter conditions

    • Sees space for Fed to be more ‘nimble’ with balance sheet size

    • Current Fed policy toolkit working very well

    • Stripping Fed of interest-paying powers would greatly complicate rate control

    • Fed losses do not affect monetary policy, profits will return eventually

    • Fed officials will be discussing composition of balance sheet

    • Fed still aiming for Treasury-only balance sheet over longer run

    • Stopping balance sheet expansion sooner would have had small impact

    • Balance sheet remains an important monetary policy tool

    Powell’s message was measured — recognizing cooling labor conditions but signaling patience and flexibility rather than an aggressive easing bias. The chair says that may be approaching the end of balance sheet contraction which is stimulative.

    The market is still pricing in a rate cut for October and December.

    This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

  • Fed Powell scheduled to speak at 12:20 PM ET on the economy

    Fed chair Powell is scheduled to speak on the economic outlook and monetary policy at 12:20 PM ET. The chairs comments, come ahead of the blackout period which will commence after the close on Friday. The next Fed rate decision will be on October 29.

    Going into the speech, US stocks are mixed with the S&P down -0.20% and the NASDAQ index down -0.66%.

    In the US debt market, the 2-year yield is at 3.497%. The 10 year yield is at 4.0475%.

    Crude oil is down $0.90 at $58.59. Gold is up $21 at $4131 while silver is down $0.69 and $51.63.

    This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

  • US stocks rebound from sharp declines. Comments from USTR Greer allay some fears:

    The major US stock indices are continuing to retraced some of the large losses from earlier in the day. USTR’s Greers comments on US China relations helped to ease some of the fears. Greer said that

    • US and China had stopped level talks on Monday,
    • He thinks that they will be able to work through issues with China over rare earth supply chains and
    • That he is hard for child to have an offramp at this point

    The Dow industrial average is now higher by 163 points or 0.35%. The gains are led by Caterpillar, Walmart, and American Express – each with gains of over 3%. Below are the top gainers in the Dow industrial average:

    • Caterpillar +3.87% at $524.30

    • Walmart +3.44% at $105.63

    • American Express +3.01% at $332.86

    • Cisco +1.97% at $68.79

    • Home Depot +1.47% at $384.93

    • Honeywell +1.41% at $205.77

    • 3M +1.34% at $153.12

    • McDonald’s +1.34% at $304.14

    • Verizon +1.32% at $40.28

    • Travelers +1.17% at $273.55

    The S&P index is down -11 points or -0.17% after trading as low as -99.65 points.

    The NASDAQ index is down -164 points or -0.73% at 22529.95. At session lows a traded down -480.88 points. Despite the rebound, there are a number of large stocks which are still down over 2% including:

    • Intel −5.37% at $35.22

    • Stellantis NV −3.79% at $9.79

    • CrowdStrike Holdings −3.55% at $490.53

    • NVIDIA −3.31% at $182.09

    • Western Digital −3.13% at $115.14

    • Broadcom −2.97% at $346.11

    • Palo Alto Networks −2.81% at $207.28

    • MicroStrategy −2.78% at $306.69

    • Snowflake −2.63% at $240.77

    • Oracle −2.43% at $300.53

    • Nebius NV −2.37% at $132.25

    • Tesla −2.13% at $426.61

    • Goldman Sachs −2.05% at $770.62

    Chair Powell will be speaking shortly. The blackout period for the Fed ahead of the next interest rate decision starts on Friday after the close.

    This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

  • Greer adds fuel to the rebound, S&P 500 now nearly flat on the day

    The S&P 500 has trimmed today’s decline to just 13 points from upwards of 90 points early in the day.

    The latest catalyst was the USTR’s Greer saying that China realized it overstepped on rare earth controls. He also noted there were staff talks going on as recently as yesterday. It sounds like he was marched out to cool market nerves and that’s what he did.

    Overall, I didn’t think the flavor of his comments was quite as optimistic as the headlines but the momentum is clearly up right now and Trump has shown that he will TACO at the earliest possible moment.

    This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

  • European indices close mixed

    The major European indices are closing mixed German DAX, France’s CAC, Italy’s FTSE MIB moved lower while the UK FTSE 100, Spain’s Ibex, moved higher.

    • Germany’s DAX declined -0.64% to 24,231.89

    • France’s CAC 40 declined- 0.18% to 7,919.63

    • UK’s FTSE 100 rose by 0.10% to 9,452.76

    • Italy’s FTSE MIB declined -0.22% to 42,075.65

    • Spain’s IBEX 35 rose 0.29% to 15,586.01

    As London/European traders look toward the exit, the broader US stock indices are down but well off the lows. The Dow industrial average is now trading near unchanged.

    • Dow industrial average up 19 points or 0.04% at 46086
    • S&P index -23.14 points or -0.34% at 6632.75
    • NASDAQ index -174.35 points or -0.77% at 22549.30.

    Looking at the US yield curve, the shorter end is lower while the longer end is higher:

    • 2 year yield 3.503%, -1.9 basis points
    • 5 year yield 3.61%, -1.5 basis points
    • 10 year yield 4.050%, unchanged
    • 30 year yield 4.644%, +1.0 basis points.

    Looking at other markets:

    • Crude oil is trading down $-1.33 at $58.13
    • Gold is trading up $31 or 0.75% at 4141.70
    • Silver is trading down -$0.57 or -1.10% at $51.76.
    • Bitcoin is trading down $3400 at $111,795

    This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

  • USTR’s Greer: China realizes it over-stepped

    • China is putting restrictions on very small amounts of rare earths
    • Asked about the US restricting chips, says ‘everyone does that’
    • China realized they over-stepped and started to qualify what they’d done
    • The President is a deal-maker
    • We’ve been successful in finding a path forward
    • China’s reactions are completely disproportionate
    • We had senior staff talks yesterday
    • Calls it a ‘major escalation’
    • November 1 tariffs depends on what China does
    • We’re trying to have a good relationship with the Chinese
    • We want to make sure markets are responding to ‘appropriate information’

    It sounds like they’re leaning on China to back down but it’s not clear what China would want in return. The market took some of the things at face value like ‘China overstepping’ and that’s further lifted risk assets.

    This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

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