KEY POINTS:
The Fed is widely expected to deliver a “hawkish” 25 bps cut today bringing the FFR to 3.50-3.75%. The reason for the “hawkish cut” expectations are due to large disagreement among Fed members, which is what prompted Fed Chair Powell to admit that a December cut was not a foregone conclusion at the last press conference.
At some point the market was pricing just a 30% chance of a rate cut in December and those expectations weighed on risk assets with the S&P 500 falling back to October lows. Everything changed after Fed’s Williams endorsed a December cut on November 21. The probabilities for a cut jumped to 60% and from there they just kept on increasing giving support to risk assets.
At this meeting, the Fed is likely to go back into neutral stance and confirm that the “insurance easing” process is now over. This would also come with strong data dependency and a message that the bar for further cuts is now much higher. The economic projections are expected to show minimal changes and the dot plot to keep the median projection of one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027.
STATEMENT
Given the lack of key economic reports like the November NFP and CPI, which were postponed to next week, there shouldn’t be material changes to the first paragraph.
The statement is likely to bring back the “extent and timing of additional adjustments” message to highlight the pause and the higher bar for further cuts.
We should also see more members dissenting for a rate cut this time. The expectations range from a minimum of 2 to a maximum of 5. This won’t be a surprise, although 5 would be slightly more hawkish. Based on the recent speeches and commentary, the likely dissenters should be Schmid, Collins, Musalem and Goolsbee.
Fed’s Barr hasn’t committed to either action and Fed’s Cook hasn’t commented on policy since the October meeting. The former could dissent while the latter should support the rate cut.
Potential surprises:
SUMMARY OF ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS AND DOT PLOT
The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) is expected to remain roughly unchanged given the lack of key economic reports and material changes in the economy. At the margin, we could see slight downgrade to inflation projections and upgrade to unemployment rate.
The median projection in the Dot Plot is also expected to remain unchanged with one rate cut in 2026 and another in 2027. Despite the market pricing two rate cuts in 2026, it should tolerate the Fed keeping the dot plot unchanged with one cut in 2026.
Potential surprises:
PRESS CONFERENCE
Fed Chair Powell will have a hard time striking a balance between not sounding too hawkish or too dovish. He’s likely to say that the process of insurance cuts is now over and that the extent of further easing will hinge on the data.
His goal will likely be keeping things as neutral as possible, and to defer future policy actions to the economic data. Therefore, stressing data dependency should be his playbook.
MARKET PRICING
MARKET REACTION
Hawkish surprises:
*If we see an aggressive selloff in the stock market protracting for days, at some point it should start weighing on the dollar as the market will likely price in more or more aggressive rate cuts further down the curve.
Dovish surprises:
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
Someone told me that Etheruem rally had no volume so I had to go and check that deeply. His claim? Some flashy instagram post. So I had to deep dive with orderFlow Intel.
Ethereum futures exploded higher on December 9, pushing from the low 3,100s into the 3,409 zone before pulling back into the mid-3,300s. With the FOMC meeting hours away, traders are asking one major question:
Was yesterday’s rally a bull trap?
Using orderFlow Intel, investingLive.com’s proprietary AI-supported order flow engine, the answer for now is no.
Ethereum currently earns a +4 score on our -10 to +10 sentiment scale:
-10 = extremely bearish
0 = neutral or indecisive
+10 = extremely bullish
A +4 reflects a clear bullish bias, supported by price structure, volume, and order flow patterns “under the hood,” but also acknowledges the potential for volatility around tonight’s FOMC decision.
This report explains why the move does not exhibit classic bull trap signatures, why volume was healthier than some believe, and what key levels traders should watch during the next 24–48 hours.
This analysis is educational and for decision support only. It is not investment advice. Always trade at your own risk.
1. Market Context Since December 1
Ethereum’s market structure has been clean, progressive, and consistent with a bullish continuation:
December 1 – Capitulation Flush
Futures dropped from ~3,060 to 2,728 on high selling pressure.
But the close near 2,800 VWAP suggested meaningful buy absorption.
December 2–3 – First Bullish Impulse
ETH reclaimed 3,000 and rallied to ~3,178.
This created the first leg of the uptrend, driven by solid buy volume.
December 4–5 & 7–8 – Sideways Base
Several sessions formed a tight horizontal range between 3,000 – 3,250, repeatedly rejecting breakdowns under 3,000. This built a structural base.
December 9 – Breakout Day
ETH surged from ~3,125 to 3,409.
Price broke through the previously untouched 3,257 level and held above it.
The next upside reference is 3,451.5 (a higher naked level).
As of early December 10:
Price holds near 3,330–3,350, above
Yesterday’s VWAP at ~3,277, and
Yesterday’s POC near 3,335.5,
And the reclaimed naked level 3,257.
This is not typical post-trap behavior. It is what we see when a market accepts higher value.
The simple and effective technical analysis (but before the important ‘under the hood’ order flow analysis below)
The following Ethereum futures technical analysis video is for context, it is not part of orderFlow Intel analysis which reveals hints under the hood, and beyond the charts you are looking at.
But it is still a relevant and important context.
The above video is a continuation of my previous on 08 Dec: Ethereum Technical Analysis on the 4 Hour Chart: A Potential Bull Flag, and Upcoming FOMC (again, with the video, they do not represent the complete technical analysis but don’t miss it, if you want to get a good view of the context).
2. Volume Analysis – Addressing Claims of Weak Volume
Some on social media claim yesterday’s rally lacked volume.
The data shows otherwise:
Key point:
The December 9 rally occurred on higher volume than four of the previous six sessions.
That is not a bull trap signature.
Bull traps typically show:
Low volume breakouts, or
Climactic high volume with a weak close and heavy selling pressure.
Neither is present here.
3. What orderFlow Intel Sees Beneath the Surface
While most traders see price candles, orderFlow Intel analyzes:
Aggressive buy vs aggressive sell activity (delta)
How buyers and sellers behave near the highs and lows of each session
Volume clustering and acceptance zones
VWAP dynamics
Recurring behavioral patterns detected by AI
This deeper layer is generally inaccessible to retail traders.
Understanding Delta (in simple terms)
Delta > 0: more aggressive buyers than sellers
Delta < 0: more aggressive sellers
Examining delta near the low or high of the session helps identify who is truly in control.
Delta progression this month:
1 Dec: Heavy selling delta during the flush, but strong absorption into VWAP.
2–3 Dec: Strong positive delta – confirming genuine buyer aggression.
4–5 Dec: Negative delta – sellers counterattack during consolidation.
8 Dec: Positive delta returns as ETH reclaims 3,150+.
9 Dec (yesterday):
Moderately positive delta, not euphoric.
Buyers engaged at both dips and highs.
Price closed well above VWAP.
No evidence of exhaustion or distribution near the top.
If this were a bull trap, orderFlow Intel would expect:
Heavy selling delta into the highs, or
A very strong positive delta spike followed by a weak close.
We saw neither.
This is why ETH earns a +4 bullish score instead of a neutral or bearish one.
4. Why Yesterday’s Move Does Not Look Like a Bull Trap
✔ Volume supports the move
Volume increased significantly versus the consolidation days.
✔ Value shifted higher
ETH is trading around yesterday’s POC, not collapsing below it.
✔ Key technical levels held
ETH remains above 3,257
Above yesterday’s VWAP (3,277)
Above 3,221 and 3,150 – prior rejection zones
✔ Order flow does not indicate distribution
No signs of aggressive selling at the highs.
No delta-based exhaustion.
Buyers are still active near pullbacks.
Conclusion:
The rally has structural legitimacy. It is not behaving like a bull trap.
5. Critical Levels for Traders to Monitor
Upside
3,409 – yesterday’s high
3,451.5 – next major naked level
A breakout with strong buy flow would reinforce the bullish case.
Immediate Support
3,335–3,350 – yesterday’s POC
3,277 – yesterday’s VWAP
Holding above these keeps ETH in a constructive posture.
Major Support Zone
3,257 – reclaimed naked level
3,221 – 3,150 – deeper consolidation shelf
Bearish Reversal Warning
A daily close below 3,257 with strong selling participation and falling value would warn that the breakout is failing.
6. FOMC: What Could Change the Picture in the Next 48 Hours
The FOMC is the wildcard.
Bullish continuation scenario
ETH holds above 3,257–3,277 after volatility
Pullbacks are bought
Value remains above 3,330
ETH breaks 3,409 with healthy order flow
Shakeout then resume
Sharp volatility in both directions
Temporary dip to 3,221–3,257
Recovery above yesterday’s VWAP
This is common during major macro events.
Real bull trap scenario
Spike toward 3,451.5
Followed by a reversal and daily close below 3,257
With clear negative delta and heavy selling volume
That would likely reduce the score toward neutral (0 to -2).
7. How to Use orderFlow Intel as Decision Support
orderFlow Intel—guided by the expertise of Itai Levitan, Head of Strategy at investingLive.com—distills institutional-grade order flow analysis into a clear, actionable score:
+4 today means:
Bullish structure
Healthy volume
No evidence of a bull trap
But heightened sensitivity to macro events
Traders can use this insight as a second opinion, especially those who may not have access to advanced delta and volumetric analytics.
Final Thoughts & Disclaimer for Ethereum Traders Before the FOMC Tonight
At this time, Ethereum futures do not show the typical fingerprints of a bull trap.
Volume supports the move.
Order flow is constructive.
Key levels are holding.
But with the FOMC ahead, volatility risk is elevated. The next 24–48 hours will determine whether ETH continues its upward trajectory or revisits lower value areas.
Educational use only. Not investment advice. Trade at your own risk.
Ethereum futures, like all leveraged instruments, carry substantial market risk.
Always conduct your own research and use appropriate risk controls.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.
End of content
End of content