Markets News that German parliament was set to approve a record €52bn in military procurement contracts next week extended the latest Bund sell-off immediately at the start of trading, resulting in new cycle/near term highs across the curve. Unlike the past few days, the move lacked technical momentum and triggered some return action. Yesterday’s hawkish […]
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Markets Monday’s ECB Schnabel driven rally in EMU yields ran into resistance yesterday. Investors in some way embraced her message that the next ECB move, after a period of rate stability, will likely be a rate hike. EMU money markets priced out the probability of a final fine-tuning/risk management cut next year and at the […]
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FOMC rate decision is the clear centerpiece of today’s sessions, with markets fully convinced the Fed will deliver a 25bps cut to 3.50–3.75%. The probability of anything else is effectively zero, and policymakers have little incentive to risk unsettling sentiment by defying expectations at this stage of the cycle. The real debate is not about […]
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He’s been talking mostly about the French economy but touched on the ECB policy too now. Goes without saying that this is no news for the market as no rate cut is expected.
The market has been actually starting to look for signs that the ECB could hike rates in 2026 or 2027. Right now, there’s a 33% probability of a 25 bps rate hike by the end of 2026.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
This has been the core ECB message for a long time now. The central bank is not expected to cut at all for years, on the contrary, the market is pricing some tightening in 2026 following the hawkish comments from ECB’s Schnabel recently.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
Everybody knows the Federal Reserve (Fed) will announce a 25bp rate cut today. I know it, you know it, he/she/it knows it, my five-year-old knows it, my cat, your dog, the birds in the sky. Everyone knows the Fed is lowering rates later today. Market pricing is giving it roughly an 88% probability — too […]
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