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Summary

• Core CPI held at 3.0% in November
• Underlying inflation pressures remain firm
• Data supports gradual BoJ tightening

Japan’s nationwide inflation data for November showed price pressures remaining firmly entrenched, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan will continue its gradual path toward policy normalisation.

Government data released on Friday showed core consumer prices rose 3.0% year-on-year in November, matching market expectations and marking another month of inflation running well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target. The core measure excludes fresh food prices but includes energy, making it one of the most closely watched gauges of underlying inflation trends.

Headline inflation was little changed, with overall CPI rising 2.9% year-on-year, underscoring persistent price pressures across the economy despite recent volatility in energy markets and a modest slowdown in global growth momentum.

A broader measure of underlying inflation, which excludes both fresh food and energy prices, also rose 3.0% from a year earlier. The strength of this “core-core” gauge suggests inflation is no longer being driven solely by imported cost pressures, but is increasingly supported by domestic factors such as services prices, labour costs and corporate pricing behaviour.

The November data reinforces the view that Japan’s inflation backdrop remains fundamentally different from the deflationary environment that characterised much of the past two decades. While policymakers continue to stress the need for sustainable, demand-driven inflation, recent readings point to a more persistent trend than initially expected.

From a policy perspective, the inflation figures strengthen the case for the Bank of Japan’s expected rate hike, which would take its policy rate to the highest level in roughly three decades. However, officials are likely to maintain a cautious tone, mindful of the recent rise in Japanese government bond yields and the sensitivity of financial conditions to further tightening.

For markets, the data is broadly in line with expectations and therefore unlikely to trigger significant volatility on its own. Instead, attention is expected to remain focused on the BoJ’s policy guidance and Governor Kazuo Ueda’s assessment of whether current inflation dynamics are sufficiently durable to justify further rate increases over time.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Japan’s National Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.9% YoY in November, compared to the previous reading of 3.0%, according to the latest data released by the Japan Statistics Bureau on Friday.

Japan National CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) down to 3% in November from previous 3.1%

Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) dipped from previous 3% to 2.9% in November

Japan National CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) meets forecasts (3%) in November

EUR/USD retreated on Thursday after a busy economic docket on both sides of the Atlantic. A benign inflation print in the US and the European Central Bank (ECB) keeping interest rates unchanged at the last meeting of the year, barely moved the needle for the single currency.

Summary

• Goldman sees CPI having limited Fed impact
• December data more important for January meeting
• Core PCE disinflation remains intact

The latest U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data released on 18 December is unlikely to materially alter the Federal Reserve’s near-term policy outlook, according to Goldman Sachs, which argues policymakers will instead focus on inflation data still to come ahead of the January FOMC meeting.

In a note following the CPI release, Goldman said today’s reading is “unlikely to move the needle” for the Fed, despite headline and core measures continuing to show progress on disinflation. The bank emphasised that December inflation data, which will be released just before the Fed’s January meeting, will carry greater significance for policymakers assessing whether price pressures are cooling in a sustained manner.

Goldman’s analysis suggests that recent downside surprises in core CPI have been driven largely by technical and timing-related factors rather than a broad-based easing in underlying inflation. Specifically, the firm points to a sizeable drag from shelter components, stemming from methodological issues related to missing October data, as well as softer core goods prices due to later-than-usual price collection in November.

Looking beyond CPI, Goldman estimates that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, rose by an average of 0.12% month-on-month across October and November. The bank estimates a 0.10% increase in October and 0.14% in November, which would lower the year-on-year core PCE rate to 2.66% in November, down from 2.83% in September.

(As an aside, there is no official release date yet set for the November PCE and core PCE data).

While this trajectory supports the broader disinflation narrative, Goldman cautions against over-interpreting recent CPI softness. The firm notes that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has not yet clarified how it will address the identified distortions, raising the possibility that some of the recent drag could reverse in coming months.

Goldman expects part of the shelter weakness to unwind in future releases, while goods inflation could re-accelerate modestly in December. As a result, the bank sees the Fed remaining patient, with policymakers likely to rely on a broader run of data rather than a single CPI print when shaping policy decisions in early 2026.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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