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Japan economy minister Akazawa

• Told U.S. negotiation counterparts Japan wants best solution as soon as possible for both nations

• Strongly requested revocation of tariffs on Japan

• Agreed to hold second meeting this month
• Says there was no discussion of forex

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Trade balance data from Japan for March 2025

544.1bn JPY

• expected +485.3bn yen, prior +590.5bn

Exports +3.9%

• expected +4.5%, prior +11.4%

Exports to:

• US +3.1% y/y
• EY -1.1% y/y
• China -4.8% y/y
• Asia +5.5% y/y

Imports +2.0%

• expected +3.1%, prior -0.7%

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid.

• There’s a lot of nervousness in the agricultural sector from tariffs
• I’m an optimist, need to be patient to see how it plays out
• We will react to disruptions that might affect mandates
• Politicians and the public seem to be pleased with Fed independence and its structure

more to come

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Deutsche Bank expects the European Central Bank to cut its policy rates by 25 basis points to 2.25% at its meeting on 17 April. While the ECB left the door open in March for either a rate cut or a pause, the balance of risks has since shifted decisively in favour of easing.

The economic hit from reciprocal tariffs, elevated uncertainty, and tightening financial conditions appears to be more severe than the ECB had anticipated. Moreover, the assumption that tariffs would prove inflationary is now being challenged, with disinflationary forces increasingly dominant.

Key downside risks include the euro’s rapid appreciation, falling oil prices, and the growing likelihood of trade diversion—all of which weigh on the inflation outlook. Deutsche Bank notes that inflation risks are now clearly skewed to the downside.

While post-tariff-pause guidance may be only mildly dovish, Deutsche Bank stresses that the ECB must remain agile in the face of a complex and evolving shock. The firm maintains its view that the terminal rate will settle at 1.5%, warning that markets may still be underestimating the risk of disinflation.

—

The ECB statement is due at 1215 GMT / 0815 US Eastern time

• European Central Bank President Lagarde’s press confernce follows at 1245 GMT / 0845 US Eastern time

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.