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• High yield 4.810%
• WI level at the time of the auction 4.814%.
• Tail -0.4 basis points versus six-month average of +0.8 basis points
• Bid to cover 2.63X vs six-month average of 2.56X
• Directs 12.32% vs six-month average of 17.9%
• Indirects 70.68% vs six-month average of 66.8%
• Dealers 16.99% vs six-month average of 15.3%

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The US Customs and Border Protection told CNBC that the department has collected more than $500 million under Pres. Trump’s latest tariffs. That is woefully short of the $2 billion per day that Pres. Trump repeatedly cites.

If true, how long will it take for Pres. Trump to enact tariffs that truly brings in $2B? (or tries too).

The problem is supplies may never make it to port especially from China. If no goods are coming in, no tariffs can be collected.

If the tariffs are not working in hurting China, what hurts would be things like chip exports into China.

This stuff cannot be good.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q2 improved to -2.2% from -2.4% on April 9. The GPS meant adjusting for imports and exports of gold also improved to -0.1% from -0.2% last estimate.

in their own words

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2025 is -2.2 percent on April 16, up from -2.4 percent on April 9. The alternative model forecast, which adjusts for imports and exports of gold as described here, is -0.1 percent. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, both the standard model’s and the alternative model’s nowcasts for first-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth increased from 0.7 percent to 1.4 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Thursday, April 17. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Cleveland Fed Pres. Hammack is adding additional comments saying:

• It is not appropriate to respond to every twist and turn of markets.
• Focuses on how markets impact economy, not focused on asset prices per se.
• It’s going to take time to see how trade policies impact economy.
• ‘Right thing’ might be to stay on hold for now, steady policy is ‘active choice’.
• When things are uncertain better to think about scenarios over forecasts.
• Sustained tariff battles could create more extended pressures.
• Goes into every Fed meeting with an open mind.
• Key for Fed is to keep inflation expectations contained
• Hearing lots of uncertainties from businesses about the economy
• Trade policies up to elected officials, feds navigate impact of those policies.
• Recent market moves are somewhat unusual, hard to interpret.
• Market-based inflation expectations are well behaved.
• It looks like inflation expectations are reasonably close to desired levels.

Earlier today:

Hammack said there is a “strong case” for the Federal Reserve to hold policy steady for now, emphasizing the importance of patience as the central bank gathers more data. She noted that the Fed is in a position to take its time and assess economic conditions, arguing that moving slowly and responding appropriately is preferable to acting too quickly. Hammack stated that if the labor market remains firm and inflation picks up, a more restrictive policy path may be necessary. Conversely, if growth weakens and inflation declines, the Fed could pivot to rate cuts more rapidly. She also acknowledged that it will take time to fully understand the economic impact of new tariffs and reiterated that there is still more work to be done to bring inflation back to the 2% target.

Hammack’s comments align with her consistently hawkish stance, even as others like Waller have turned more dovish. The broader outlook for Fed policy remains uncertain, particularly as Chair Powell’s stance is still unclear. However, Powell will have his chance when he speaks on the economy at 1:30 PM ET.

Hammack is a voting member in 2026.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.