Markets:
The non-farm payrolls numbers were largely in-line with expectations but when you factor in revisions and some quirks, it was probably a shade negative. But what the price action revealed was a market that was anxiously waiting to spring; whether that was post-ADP angst or just buyers waiting for a risk event to pass is tough to say. The newsflow on US-China remains positive so I assume that’s the major driver.
In any case, it was a strong day for the US dollar and stocks. The fall in gold prices also indicates a backing off on trade tensions. Rising yields might also indicate that Elon’s budget suicide mission didn’t move the needle on the likelihood the budget bill will pass.
That’s not to say that the jobs report didn’t shift views. The pricing on April 2026 Fed funds fell 10 bps to 70 bps in the aftermath. That helped to lend a strong bid in the dollar, particularly in USD/JPY, which ended a see-saw week at close to its best levels. The dollar moves were smaller elsewhere but it added 25-35 pips on most fronts.
Have a great weekend.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
Silver has experienced a significant breakout, decisively surpassing its previous high from October 2024. This signals the start of the next upward leg in its price trajectory. From the last notable low on April 7, 2025, the rally has been unfolding as an impulsive wave with an extended structure, often referred to as a “nest.” […]
The post Elliott Wave Update: Silver (XAGUSD) Breaks Out – What’s the Paths Forward? appeared first on Action Forex.
Shares of Lululemon are down 18% today after the company cut guidance and cited a ‘dynamic macroenvironment’ for the decline. The stock market more broadly certainly isn’t worried about that call with the S&P 500 up 1.2% today.
This isn’t a Fed call as the market has trimmed about 8 bps of easing for the year ahead since the non-farm payrolls report. Instead, the market looks to be enthusiastic about trade deals.
In any case, the consumer will ultimately be important and corporates have some good views. The problem is that sometimes they mistake poor macro for poor execution. Here is the commentary from Lulu, you decide:
CEO Calvin McDonald:
We continue to see a more cautious discerning consumer. We’re definitely not happy where the growth is in the U.S., but relative to the market in our performance versus others, please that we’re putting on share, pleased with the reaction to the newness.
The current tariff paradigm has brought uncertainty into the retail environment as consumers try to assess the impact they will have on daily life.
Interesting relatively bullish comment on Canada:
I think a bit of the delta between the Canadian and the U.S. market and the consumer we see is — we’re not seeing the same discerning consumer in Canada as we are seeing in the U.S. in terms of traffic as well as some other metrics that we monitor.
CFO Meghan Frank:
We did see a decline in store traffic, particularly in the US as we move from Q4 into Q1.
When we think about traffic trends and headwinds, they would be predominantly in the US … the traffic trends, I would say, would be the leading indicator on why we’ve taken that positioning in terms of consumer confidence and macro uncertainty in the second half.
Nothing notable [on China macro], but we are still seeing strong double-digit growth in the China market.
You don’t hear many comments talking about stronger economy in Canada and China than the US.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
It’s looking like a strong rebound for US stock markets after yesterday’s late-day selloff. Futures levels:
That’s a nice rebound. In focus will be Tesla shares after yesterday’s plunge: they’re up 3.8% premarket. Another mover is Lululemon, down 18% after lowering guidance on poor macro and Broadcom down 2.9% on earnings.
I didn’t see much in the non-farm payrolls report to spark this kind of buying but the fast majority of the lift came after the data, indicating some real angst about the economy.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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