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Nonfarm payrolls were expected to increase 125,000 in May while the unemployment rate stayed at 4.2%.

This is the first hint at a timeline for China-US talks, and it’s a rapid one. That’s a good sign that both sides are aiming for some kind of deal before long.

But let’s hope that Navarro isn’t invited because that’s not the guy to make a deal with China.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk and President Trump launched a war of words at each other Thursday over Musk’s criticism of the Republican’s “One Big, Beautiful” tax bill

• Prior was +177K (revised to +147K)
• Two-month net revision: -95K versus -58K prior
• Unemployment rate: 4.2% versus 4.2% expected
• Prior unemployment rate: 4.2%
• Unrounded unemployment rate: 4.244% versus 4.1872% prior –highest unrounded print since October 2021
• Participation rate: 62.4% versus 62.6% prior
• Average hourly earnings (m/m): +0.4% versus +0.3% expected and +0.2% prior
• Average hourly earnings (y/y): +3.9% versus +3.7% expected and +3.8% prior
• Average weekly hours: versus 34.3 expected and 34.3 prior
• Change in private payrolls: +140K versus +120K expected and +167K prior (revised to +146K)
• Change in manufacturing payrolls: versus -5K expected and -1K prior
• Government jobs: -1K versus +10K prior
• Full-time jobs: -623K versus +305K prior
• Part-time jobs: versus +33K +56K prior
• Household survey -696K vs +436K prior

USD/JPY was trading at 144.26 just ahead of the data and the market was pricing in 80 bps in easing in the year ahead, which is at 79 bps afterwards.

There was a slight hawkish reaction to the data which I would classify more as a ‘sigh of relief’ that jobs were better than ADP. With the revisions, it was slightly less than expected and also note falling labor force participation; if not for that the unemployment rate would have risen further. There is also an argument that the revisions tell you more about the economy than the headlines, and the revisions weren’t great for the second month, the household survey was also poor (though it’s volatile).

Note the composition as well:

• Healthcare: +62,000 jobs (hospitals +30,000, ambulatory care +29,000, nursing facilities +6,000).

• Leisure & hospitality: +48,000 jobs (mostly food/drinking places +30,000).

• Social assistance: +16,000 jobs.

• Federal government: -22,000 jobs (down 59,000 since January).

The government job losses are a solid sign that the private sector is doing better but healtcare is government-adjacent and the rest of the jobs aren’t high quality.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +7.4k
• Unemployment rate 7.0% vs 7.0% expected
• Prior 6.9%
• Full-time employment +57.7k vs +31.5k prior
• Part-time employment -48.8k vs -24.2k prior
• Participation rate 65.3% vs 65.3% prior
• Average hourly wages +3.5% vs +3.5% prior

StatCan notes that overall, there has been virtually no employment growth since January, following strong gains from October 2024 to January 2025.

Anyway this report won’t change anything for the Bank of Canada which is expected to deliver another rate cut by the end of the year.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

EUR/USD

• 1.1500 (EUR 3.19bn)
• 1.1400 (EUR 2.38bn)
• 1.1300 (EUR 1.28bn)

USD/JPY

• 146.00
  (US$ 1.35bn)
• 142.00 (US$ 2.08bn)

GBP/USD

• 1.3600 (GBP 413mn)
• 1.3410 (GBP 896mn)

USD/CHF

• 0.8300 (CHF 415mn)
• 0.8250 (CHF 470mn)

USD/CAD

• 1.4040 (US$ 1.11bn)
• 1.3600 (US$ 1.13bn)

AUD/USD

• 0.6300 (AUD 1.64bn)

NZD/USD

• 0.5590 (NZD 766mn)

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

Broadcom’s artificial intelligence business is at the center of the company’s recent boom.

Happy jobs Friday.

I’m tempted to dismiss this report as unimportant because the Fed is in a casual wait-and-see stance but a tipping point in an economy is like Hemingway’s description of bankruptcy: Suddenly and then all at once.

Lululemon late yesterday cut guidance citing a ‘dynamic macroenvironment’ and shares are down 23% premarket. There have also been cracks elsewhere and the Beige Book described a slowing economy. Still, even with a bad jobs report it’s tough to extrapolate one month.

In any case, let’s see what the data brings. Here is the only preview you need to read, as it highlights some of the data foreshadowing the numbers, the estimates and the seasonals.

USD/JPY is up 67 pips to 144.18 just ahead of the data.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Sweden’s economy and households are already feeling the heat from U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs, the country’s finance minister said.