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Trump’s call with Xi came as U.S.-China trade relations have frayed following an agreement in Geneva to temporarily pause most of their retaliatory tariffs.

The smoke around a new Canada-US trade deal continues to rise.

This was out earlier today but in case you missed it, the Toronto Sun reporter who initially reported a potential deal at the start of the week now has more details, citing ‘multiple sources’. He continues to suggest that the hope is to get a deal before the G7 meeting on June 15 in Canada.

What we can expect is an announcement that
Canada will increase its defence spending, including potential
participation in the Golden Dome missile defence system. We should
expect the government to show that border security will be a priority
and there will be action on fentanyl.

It’s not a full USMCA extension, which is likely to be tackled later. So while it will add some certainty, more-contentious negotiations are likely starting next summer when the window for renegotiation reopens.

After this was published, the US ambassador to Canada confirmed that ‘secret’ talks were ongoing.

USD/CAD today traded to the lowest since October at 1.3635 but bounced to 1.3660 as the US dollar chops around more broadly.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Circle joins Coinbase, Mara Holdings and Riot Platforms as one of the few pure-play crypto companies to list in the U.S. 

Tesla boss Elon Musk was the biggest financial backer of President Trump’s 2024 campaign, and led his DOGE effort. But they are at odds over a major bill.

• Some argued for a pause beyond July

This is the second sources line with similar reporting, though this is more granular. The market is pricing in a 20% chacne of July cut, so this is no surprise. The baseline for the ECB is now ‘one and done’ with a cut priced for Oct or Dec.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Anduril Chairman Trae Stephens told Bloomberg on Thursday that the defense tech company has just raised $2.5 billion at a $30.5 billion valuation.

Stellantis is resurrecting its well-known V-8 Hemi engine for its Ram 1500 full-size pickup trucks beginning this summer.

• Inflation will be the first order effect, the other effects will be down the road
• Haven’t seen the full extent of impact of tariffs on prices

This has a hawkish tilt.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The US ambassador to Canada said Trump and Carney are trying to iron out a framework for a trade and security
agreement, according to ambassador Peter Hoekstra.

I guess they’re not a secret anymore if he’s announcing it in Canada’s largest newspaper.

Hoekstra said that top deputies are ‘being held under a cone of silence’ but that Trump and Carney are also speaking:

“The indications that they are talking and in communications regularly
is a clear indicator to me that both sides recognize the importance and
the urgency of moving this forward.”

The talks are solely between Canada and the US, not including Mexico:

Mr. Hoekstra said the Canadians and Americans are “laying out the
perimeters” of a deal that could involve boosting US content in autos,
improving US access to Canadian critical minerals and ensuring Canada
plays a much bigger role in the Arctic. The talks also include
increased defence spending, energy, border security, fentanyl as well as
steel and aluminum.

We have been indicating this could come all week but this is the strongest sign yet.

There is a remarkable lack of self-awareness here:

“This is too important for it be managed by leaks. There is too much at
stake. You are our second largest trading partner,” he said.

The timeline for a deal is unclear. Reports this week said it could come before the June 14 G7 but Hoekstra din’t offer any timeline, besides to say it could be earlier or later than September.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The satellite imaging company surged more than 50% on Thursday, catching a tailwind from solid quarterly results.