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Shares of online sports betting platforms struggled in Monday’s session.

Dallas Fed Pres. Lorrie Logan:

• Despite the uncertainty, financial market volatility, the US economy is resilient.
• Labor market stable.
• Inflation still somewhat above target.
• Risks are balanced on both sides of the mandate.
• If tariffs change inflation expectations and that would be significant.
• Market volatility, uncertainty could cause households, businesses to pull back.
• Monetary policy well-positioned to wait, be patient.
• Well-positioned to act if risk materialized.
• Key risk is if higher short-term inflation expectations become entrenched.
• Our job is to ensure inflation doesn’t become persistent.
• Risk from tariffs is higher unemployment and higher inflation putting two Fed goals in conflict

Logan’s bias appears cautiously neutral (risks both sides) with a fear toward inflation risks rising.

She emphasizes patience in current policy, reflecting confidence in the economy’s resilience. However, her concern about inflation expectations becoming entrenched—especially due to tariffs—signals vigilance and a willingness to act IF inflation risks intensify. It is a big IF, but she is not in any hurry.

Earlier today, Fed Governor Christopher Waller was a bit more dovish. He said rate cuts remain possible later this year if inflation continues to ease and tariffs stay modest. He expects tariffs to cause a one-time price rise—not persistent inflation—and believes the Fed can look through that impact. Still, uncertainty around trade policy poses risks, with tariffs likely to be the main inflation driver in 2025 and potentially increasing unemployment, especially in the second half of the year.

Waller sees the Fed as close to its inflation target and stresses that policy should focus on real economic activity when inflation is near goal. He doubts a 10% tariff would push inflation to 3% and downplays concerns from consumer surveys, noting workers lack the leverage to demand higher wages in the current job market.

He also attributed rising long-term yields to fiscal concerns and foreign buyer anxiety but said there’s no issue with bond market functioning. Overall, Waller remains attentive to inflation forecasts and sees no signs of the pandemic-era inflation dynamics returning.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

“Consumers are cooking at home at the highest levels since early 2020,” the Campbell’s CEO said Monday.

The USDCAD opened the day with a modest move higher, but on the daily chart, the rally once again stalled just below a key technical level—the 61.8% retracement of the 2024 decline at 1.37415. The high reached 1.3738 before reversing lower (see chart above).

That rejection helped push the pair lower and ultimately to a new low for 2025, breaking below the prior October 2024 low and nearing an important confluence of support around 1.36443. This level marks the base of a multi-month swing area and intersects with a rising trend line that has defined the broader bullish structure since late 2023. A clean break below this zone would tilt the bias more clearly to the downside from a longer-term technical perspective.

Hourly chart view:
On the hourly chart, buyers made a run last week above the 50% retracement of the May decline at 1.38505 but failed to hold gains. That failure set the stage for renewed downside momentum, with sellers pushing the price below the 100-hour moving average on Friday (blue line on the chart below). The pair stayed below that MA on intraday corrections—reinforcing the bearish tone—and eventually broke below the key swing area between 1.3749 and 1.3772 into the weekly close.

Today, early upside stalled near the underside of that broken swing area, and fresh selling pressure pushed USDCAD to a new low for the year, briefly dipping below 1.3685. However, the break could not be sustained, raising questions about bearish conviction. The inability to hold that new low may hint at near-term exhaustion, making 1.3685 a key pivot point. A decisive move below would reaffirm downside momentum, while continued failure could invite dip buyers and a possible rebound.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

How to avoid a common mistake many adults in their 20s make when saving for retirement, according to a certified financial planner.

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How the Dubai chocolate trend is taking over the U.S.

• Prior month -0.8% revised from -0.5% previously reported.
• Construction spending -0.4% versus 0.3% expected

Overall much weaker than expected from US construction spending as it reacts to higher rates and economic/employment uncertainty.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior month -0.8% revised from -0.5% previously reported.
• Construction spending -0.4% versus 0.3% expected

Overall much weaker than expected from US construction spending as it reacts to higher rates and economic/employment uncertainty.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Priot month 48.7

Details:

• 🔻 Prices Paid: 69.4 vs. 69.8 last month

• 🔺 Employment: 46.8 vs. 46.5 last month

• 🔺 New Orders: 47.6 vs. 47.2 last month

• 🔺 Production: 45.4 vs. 44.0 last month

• 🔺 Supplier Deliveries: 56.1 vs. 55.2 last month

• 🔻 Inventories: 46.7 vs. 50.8 last month

• 🔻 Customer Inventories: 44.5 vs. 46.2 last month

• 🔺 Backlog of Orders: 47.1 vs. 43.7 last month

• 🔻 New Export Orders: 40.1 vs. 43.1 last month

• 🔻 Imports: 39.9 vs. 47.1 last month

The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee:

“The Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.5 percent in May, 0.2 percentage point lower compared to the 48.7 percent recorded in April. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 61st month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted for the fourth month in a row following a three-month period of expansion; the figure of 47.6 percent is 0.4 percentage point higher than the 47.2 percent recorded in April. The May reading of the Production Index (45.4 percent) is 1.4 percentage points higher than April’s figure of 44 percent. The index continued in contraction in March for the third straight month after two months of expansion preceded by eight months of contraction. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or ‘increasing’) territory, registering 69.4 percent, down 0.4 percentage point compared to the reading of 69.8 percent in April. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 47.1 percent, up 3.4 percentage points compared to the 43.7 percent recorded in April. The Employment Index registered 46.8 percent, up 0.3 percentage point from April’s figure of 46.5 percent.

“The Supplier Deliveries Index indicated a continued slowing of deliveries, registering 56.1 percent, 0.9 percentage point higher than the 55.2 percent recorded in April. (Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases.) The Inventories Index registered 46.7 percent, down 4.1 percentage points compared to April’s reading of 50.8 percent.

“The New Export Orders Index reading of 40.1 percent is 3 percentage points lower than the reading of 43.1 percent registered in April. The Imports Index plunged into extreme contraction in May, registering 39.9 percent, 7.2 percentage points lower than April’s reading of 47.1 percent.”

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.