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United States Initial Jobless Claims 4-week average declined to 223.75K in November 21 from previous 224.25K

While presenting the Autumn Budget on Wednesday, UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said that there will be no return to austerity and added that they will maintain investment in the economy and health services, per Reuters.

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The USD is mixed with the EUR (+0.09%) and the GBP (-0.09%) little changed vs the greenback and the USD higher vs the JPY by 0.27% despite expectations leaning toward a BOJ hike again as a result of the weak JPY. In the video above, I take a look at each of those currency pairs – the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD – from a technical perspective. In an unexpected early release “due to a technical issue,” the UK OBR published its full fiscal outlook ahead of the Budget, showing the government on track to run a £21.7 billion surplus by 2029–30, more than double the £9.9 billion headroom projected in March. The outlook details a major tax-heavy Budget, including a three-year extension of frozen personal tax thresholds (raising £8 billion), higher dividend/property/savings tax rates (£2.1 billion), NICs on salary-sacrifice pensions (£4.7 billion), and a total £14.9 billion rise in personal-tax receipts. Additional measures include a new property tax on homes above £2 million, taxes on electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles from April 2028 (£1.4 billion), and gambling-tax reforms (£1.1 billion). Despite these increases, spending rises in every year, reaching £11 billion more by 2029–30, with the package amounting to the third-largest medium-term tax increase since 2010. The OBR now sees a 59% chance of meeting fiscal targets (up from 54%), upgrades 2025 GDP growth to 1.5% but trims 2026 to 1.4%, expects inflation at 3.5% next year and back to 2% by 2027, and projects debt stabilizing near 95–96% of GDP. The GBPUSD initially moved higher but reversed sharply lower. The premature release sent markets into disorder: GBPUSD briefly jumped above 1.3200 before sliding to 1.3136, while UK 10-year yields rebounded from 4.43% to 4.53%. The episode has created political embarrassment, and markets appear to be signaling that this may be the last budget Reeves delivers.

The RBNZ cut the Official Cash Rate by 25 bps to 2.25%, with the decision supported by a 5–1 committee vote. Policymakers noted that while annual consumer inflation increased to 3% in the September quarter, significant spare capacity in the economy should help bring inflation back toward 2% by mid-2026. Economic activity, which was weak in mid-2025, is beginning to recover, aided by lower interest rates that are supporting household spending and a stabilizing labor market. The Bank emphasized that future OCR moves will depend on how medium-term inflation and economic conditions evolve, with further reductions seen as helping to underpin confidence and offset the risk of a slower-than-desired recovery. The committee weighed holding the OCR at 2.50% versus cutting but ultimately opted for the reduction given the extent of excess capacity. The updated projections show the OCR at 2.25% in March 2026 (previously 2.55%) and 2.28% in December 2026 (previously 2.62%), highlighting the move lower today. Despite the cut, the prospect of the last rate cut has sent the NZDUSD higher. It is currently the biggest mover with a gain of 0.87% vs the USD. However, the pair did find willing sellers near the 50% of the move down from the end of October high, and swing area between 0.56796 and 0.56912 (high reached 0.5696).

In a Reuters article overnight, the Bank of Japan was reported to be preparing markets for a possible rate hike as early as December, shifting back to a more hawkish tone as the weak yen re-emerges as a key inflation risk. The article said BOJ officials have deliberately toughened their messaging in recent days to remind markets that a December move is still on the table, especially after a meeting between Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and Governor Kazuo Ueda appeared to remove political resistance to further tightening. A growing number of board members now see conditions supportive of a hike, and even Ueda acknowledged the BOJ will discuss the “feasibility and timing” of raising rates at coming meetings. While the decision between December and January remains close and could hinge on the Fed meeting a week earlier, the BOJ increasingly views the yen’s decline as persistent and inflationary, giving it fewer reasons to delay normalization.

Australia’s October CPI came in hotter than expected, signaling renewed inflation pressure and effectively shutting the door on near-term RBA rate cuts. Headline inflation printed at 0.0% m/m (vs. -0.2% expected) and 3.8% y/y (vs. 3.6% expected), pushing further above the RBA’s 2–3% target band. Core measures were even more troubling: the trimmed mean rose to 3.3% y/y (2.9% expected, +0.3% m/m) while the weighted median hit 3.4% y/y (2.95% expected). With both headline and underlying inflation running too hot, the data strongly reinforces the RBA’s higher-for-longer stance. October’s release also marks the transition to the Monthly CPI as Australia’s primary inflation gauge, offering faster detection of inflation trends and more detailed breakdowns for policymakers. The AUDUSD is higher by about 0.42% to kickstart the US session.

The US stock indices are trading higher to start the day with the NASDAQ index leading the charge. The futures are currently employing

• Dow industrial average up 30 points
• S&P index of 14.37 points
• NASDAQ index up 96 points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• UK OBR publishes fiscal outlook and forecasts earlier than expected, before the budget
• Sterling slides back down after OBR published fiscal forecasts ahead of the budget
• UK OBR says technical error resulted in forecasts being put up too early
• UK chancellor Reeves: There will be no return to austerity
• Japan prime minister Takaichi says stimulus package isn’t reckless spending
• ECB’s de Guindos: The present interest rates level is the correct one
• Switzerland November UBS investor sentiment 12.2 vs -7.7 prior
• US MBA mortgage applications w.e. 21 November +0.2% vs -5.2% prior
• China issues plan to further promote consumption activity

Markets:

• NZD leads, JPY lags on the day
• European equities higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.2%
• US 10-year yields up 0.6 bps to 4.007%
• Gold up 0.7% to $4,158.37
• WTI crude down 0.3% to $57.79
• Bitcoin down 0.4% to $86,650

There was a lot of anticipation ahead of the UK budget but the release ended up being rather anti-climactic amid a cock up by the OBR.

The UK body made an unprecedented mess up in publishing their fiscal outlook before Rachel Reeves’ statement, with it also containing key details of the budget itself. They proceeded to blame it all on a “technical error” of course but what’s done is done.

The forecast showed that Reeves’ budget will more than double the fiscal headroom from March, roughly amounting to £22 billion. Much of that will come from tax hikes, which were to be fair expected. That said, there will be much more spending as well.

While the fiasco might have stolen much of the headlines, the market reaction is rather choppy overall. GBP/USD rose from 1.3155 to 1.3200 initially before falling back to 1.3125 as traders digested the numbers and the headlines. Will this be Reeves’ final budget? The political backlash is now something to watch out for.

10-year gilt yields also moved lower initially from 4.49% to 4.43%. But all of that reversed in the past hour with GBP/USD now coming back up to 1.3180 and 10-year yields in the UK are now at 4.49%, after having hit a high of 4.54%. Expect much more volatility in the day(s) ahead as market players continue to digest the situation.

In other markets, there wasn’t much to talk about. The dollar is trading more mixed as it holds lower against the antipodeans but lightly changed against the rest of the major currencies bloc. USD/JPY remains underpinned though, up 0.3% to 156.50 as the yen continues to struggle amid the fallout from Takaichi’s fiscal plans.

AUD/USD is up 0.4% to 0.6495, keeping near large expiries at the 0.6500 level, after a push higher earlier from hotter-than-expected Australia monthly CPI data. Meanwhile, NZD/USD is up 0.9% to 0.5673 after the RBNZ looked to have delivered their final rate cut in this cycle. The pair moved close to 0.5700 earlier but is facing rejection from the mid-November highs just below the figure level.

In the equities space, stocks continue to stay optimistic on the week with European indices holding modest gains while US futures continue to nudge a little higher as well. As for commodities, gold is also keeping higher on the day but still stuck in the recent wedge/flag pattern with the high earlier touching $4,173 but is now at $4,158 – still up 0.7% on the day though.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

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USD/CHF trades lower on Wednesday, around 0.8060 at the time of writing, down 0.10% on the day. The pair extends the correction initiated after reaching its near three-week high just above 0.8100, pressured by a broader bearish tone surrounding the US Dollar (USD).