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  • Economic and event calendar in Asia 18 December 2025 – New Zealand Q3 economic growth

    While the data due from New Zealand is noted in the calendar screenshot below as high priority I want o give a small heads up on why perhaps its not that much of a priority for traders. Gross domestic product data remains a useful benchmark, but its relevance for real-time market analysis is inherently limited because it is backward-looking. By the time a quarterly GDP print is released, it is often describing economic conditions from several months earlier. In New Zealand’s case, today’s GDP data (for July to September) largely reflects activity that occurred well before the most recent shifts in financial conditions, policy expectations, or global demand.

    This time lag matters because economies can change direction quickly. Interest-rate settings, fiscal decisions, commodity prices, exchange-rate moves, and external shocks can materially alter growth momentum within weeks, as well as in quarters. As a result, GDP can confirm what has already happened, but it is less effective at signalling what is happening now or what is likely to happen next.

    GDP is also subject to revisions, sometimes materially so, which further reduces its usefulness as a definitive guide for current decision-making. Initial estimates rely on partial data and assumptions that are refined over time, meaning markets often hesitate to place heavy weight on a single release.

    That does not make GDP worthless. It provides essential context on the economy’s medium-term trajectory and helps validate broader narratives around expansion or contraction. However, for traders/investors and policymakers focused on near-term dynamics, higher-frequency indicators such as labour-market data, inflation prints, business surveys, credit growth and financial conditions tend to offer more timely and actionable insight than a backward-looking GDP release.

    This snapshot from the investingLive economic data calendar.

    • The times in the left-most column are GMT.
    • The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.
    • I’ve noted data for New Zealand and Australia with text as the similarity of the little flags can sometimes be confusing.

    This trader is probably not reacting to missing the New Zealand GDP data release.

    This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

  • investingLive Americas FX news wrap 17 Dec: Stocks continue to fall. USD ends higher

    Key Takeaways for markets today

    • USD/JPY Rally: The Yen was the biggest mover vs the USD, pushing USD/JPY up +0.65% to 155.71. The BOJ will announce its interest rate decision on Friday.

    • Sterling Slump: GBP/USD fell -0.34% to 1.3375 after softer-than-expected UK inflation data cemented bets for a BoE rate cut tomorrow.

    • Commodity Strength: Silver surged it is up 4.34% and Oil rallied +2.92%, while Gold posted a gain of 1%

    USDJPY: The Big Mover

    The Japanese Yen struggled significantly today, finishing as the worst of the major currencies against the dollar. The pair rallied +0.65% to trade at 155.71, extending from lows of 154.52 earlier in the session.

    • The Catalyst: While Machinery Orders and Exports beat expectations, Imports missed. However, the focus remained on policy. The Bank of Japan will enter interest rate decision with expectations of a 0.25% rise in the targeted rate

    GBPUSD: Inflation Data Weights on the Pound

    The GBPUSD came under pressure earlier in the day after UK CPI data missed expectations but rebounded most of its sharp declines. The low for the day reached 1.3312. The current price is trading at 1.3375 with a high for the day near 1.3426.. Technically, the price is ending the day back above its 200 day moving average at 1.3346 and its 100 day moving average at 1.3357.

    • The Data: Headline CPI eased to 3.2% (vs. 3.5% expected), driven largely by falling food prices. Core CPI dipped -0.2% month-over-month.

    • The Impact: The report solidified market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut from the Bank of England when the announcer interest rate decision tomorrow, with markets now assigning a ~99.7% chance of a cut, up from 91% pre-release.

    EURUSD: Flat Ahead of the ECB

    The EURUSD moved lower in sympathy with the Grecovered most of the declines in the North American session to end the day marginally lower by -0.06% .

    • The Outlook: Traders appear to be in a holding pattern ahead of Thursday’s ECB meeting, where rates are expected to remain unchanged. However, economic clouds persist as the German Ifo index hit its lowest level since May. Nevertheless expectations are for ECB’s Lagarde to reiterate the bank will remain data -dependent

    USDCAD: Technical Buyers Gain Control

    The USD/CAD pair rose +0.21% to 1.3783, but the technical story is the highlight.

    • Chart Watch: After multiple failed attempts where sellers defended the 100-hour moving average, buyers finally broke above this key resistance level today. The focus now shifts to whether they can sustain this momentum toward the 1.3800 level (200-hour MA). So far, that moving average has held resistance, putting the pair in a more neutral position above its 100 hour moving average at 1.3768, but below its 200 hour moving average at 1.300

    Fed Governor Waller Signals Need for Rate Cuts Amid Soft Labor Market

    Fed Governor Christopher Waller delivered a bearish assessment of the current economy, specifically characterizing the jobs market as “very soft” with payroll growth that is “not good.” He argued that this labor market weakness supports the case for continued interest rate cuts, estimating that the current policy rate remains 50 to 100 basis points above the neutral level. While acknowledging that inflation sits slightly above target, Waller expressed confidence that price pressures are under control, expectations remain anchored, and inflation should decline over the next few months. He advocated for proceeding at a “moderate pace” rather than taking dramatic action, and noted that while tariffs likely did not cause the current labor weakness, he remains hopeful for a stronger economic year in 2026.

    Commodities & Crypto

    • Silver: The standout performer, rallying $2.70 or 4.25% at $66.44

    • Oil (USOIL): Gained $1.58 and $56.85.

    • Gold: Ticked higher by $42.92 or 1.0% at $4345

    • Bitcoin: felt $-2066 or -2.35% to $85,775.

    Stocks slumped led by the tech/AI/chips

    • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Down -243.51 points (-0.51%) to 47,870.75.

    • S&P 500 (SPX): Down -78.34 points (-1.15%) to 6,721.92.

    • Nasdaq Composite (IXIC): The biggest loser, falling -410.71 points (-1.78%) to 22,700.75.

    • Russell 2000 (RUT): Small caps were not spared, dipping -28.72 points (-1.14%) to 2,490.58.

    This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

  • End of Day Summary: Tech Rout Batters S&P 500 and Nasdaq

    Key Takeaways

    • Tech Wreck: The Nasdaq Composite led market declines, dropping -1.78% as investors aggressively rotated out of AI and semiconductor stocks.

    • Sector Rotation: While Technology (-2.14%) and Industrials (-1.66%) lagged, the Energy sector surged (+2.12%) alongside defensives.

    • The AI Unwind: Major names like Nvidia, AMD, Palantir, and Oracle saw heavy selling pressure, with many down over 5%.

    • After-Hours Catalyst: Micron Technology (MU) smashed earnings expectations after the bell, potentially putting a floor under the falling chip sector.

    Market Overview: A Sea of Red for Growth

    Wall Street closed firmly in the red today, with growth stocks bearing the brunt of the selling pressure. The major indices stumbled as the “risk-off” sentiment that plagued the session accelerated into the close.

    • Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI): Down -243.51 points (-0.51%) to 47,870.75.

    • S&P 500 (SPX): Down -78.34 points (-1.15%) to 6,721.92.

    • Nasdaq Composite (IXIC): The biggest loser, falling -410.71 points (-1.78%) to 22,700.75.

    • Russell 2000 (RUT): Small caps were not spared, dipping -28.72 points (-1.14%) to 2,490.58.

    Sector Watch: Energy Shines While Tech Bleeds

    The divergence between sectors was stark today.

    • The Laggards: Information Technology (S5INFT) was the worst-performing sector, plunging -2.14%, followed closely by Communication Services and Industrials (S5INDU), which fell -1.66%.

    • The Leaders: Energy stocks bucked the trend significantly, with the Energy sector (SPN) rallying +2.12%. Materials (S5MATR) and Consumer Staples also managed to eke out gains, highlighting a defensive rotation by portfolio managers.

    The Losers: AI & Chip Stocks hammered

    The selling was concentrated in the high-flying names that have led the bull market for months. Traders appeared to be taking profits—or heading for the exits—in the semiconductor and AI infrastructure space.

    • Nebius NV (NBIS): -6.79%

    • Super Micro Computer (SMCI): -5.64%

    • ASML (ASML): -5.64%

    • Palantir (PLTR): -5.58%

    • Oracle (ORCL): -5.46% (Hitting fresh lows)

    • AMD: -5.27%

    • Tesla (TSLA): -4.57%

    • Broadcom (AVGO): -4.48%

    The Winners: Defensives & Earnings Plays

    Not everything was selling off. Money found its way into “safe haven” defensive stocks and select earnings winners.

    • Occidental Petroleum (OXY): +4.39% (Leading the energy charge)

    • Chipotle (CMG): +3.80%

    • General Mills (GIS): +3.45% (Classic defensive play)

    • GameStop (GME): +3.37%

    • Gilead Sciences (GILD): +2.18%

    • Adobe (ADBE): +1.91%

    After-Hours Spotlight: Micron (MU) to the Rescue?

    Just as the sentiment seemed bleakest for tech investors, Micron Technology (MU) released its Q1 2026 earnings report immediately after the closing bell, delivering a significant beat that could stabilize the sector tomorrow.

    • Adjusted EPS: $4.78 (vs. expectation of $3.84)

    • Revenue: $13.6 Billion (vs. expectation of $12.78 Billion)

    Micron’s strong performance suggests that demand for memory chips—driven by the very AI data center buildout that investors were selling today—remains robust. Traders will be watching closely to see if this result can spark a relief rally in Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom during tomorrow’s session.

    Shares of Micron are up 6.65% in after-hours trading. Nvidia is up 0.39%, Broadcom is trading up 0.55%, Intel is up 0.36%, and AMD is up 0.51%. On the day, Micron tumbled -2.93%, Nvidia was down -3.81%, Broadcom was down -4.48%, Intel is down -3.38%, and AMD was down -5.29%.

    This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

  • Silver Price Analysis: XAGUSD Hits Record Highs (Up 130% in 2025)

    Key Technical & Fundamental Takeaways

    • Record-Breaking Run: Silver has surged another 4.25% today, hitting a fresh all-time high of $66.88.

    • The Fundamental Driver: A “perfect storm” of falling real rates, structural supply deficits, and booming industrial demand (EVs/Solar) is fueling the rally.

    • The Trend: Silver is now up a staggering 130% year-to-date in 2025.

    • The “Line in the Sand”: The bullish trend remains intact as long as price holds above the 100-hour moving average at $63.84.

    • Reversal Risk: A break below the $62.70 trendline would signal a technical shift in favor of the sellers.

    Unstoppable Momentum: Silver Hits $66.42

    Silver is continuing its relentless run to the upside, with the price currently trading up roughly 4.25% on the day at $66.42. Earlier in the session, the buying pressure extended the price to a new intraday record of $66.88.

    This move is not an isolated event; it is the continuation of a powerful trend that has seen the white metal rise 130% in 2025. As the old trading adage goes, “trends are fast, directional, and tend to go farther than traders think.” Right now, this is the definition of a runaway trend.

    The “Why”: 4 Pillars Driving the Silver Rally

    Fundamentally, Silver has been moving higher on a rare combination of macro tailwinds and metal-specific tightness. Here is what is powering the move:

    1. Monetary Policy & Rates: Easing real interest rates and expectations for looser monetary policy have improved the appeal of non-yielding assets like precious metals.

    2. Hard Asset Demand: Persistent central bank buying and investor demand for “hard assets” have supported the entire complex.

    3. Industrial Super-Cycle: Unlike Gold, Silver has massive industrial utility. Demand is soaring due to its critical role in solar panels, electrification, EVs, and advanced electronics.

    4. Structural Deficit: Mine supply growth has lagged behind this exploding demand, creating a structural deficit that amplifies price moves when investment flows increase.

    5. The Gold Sympathy Play: Gold’s own rally has pulled Silver higher via the gold-silver ratio. Once momentum builds, Silver often outperforms Gold due to its smaller, more volatile market cap.

    Technical Analysis: When Does the Trend End?

    All good things eventually come to an end. For this parabolic trend to reverse, we would need to see either a fundamental shift (a reversal of the drivers listed above) or, more immediately, price action that tilts the technical bias to the downside.

    While markets can remain overbought for long periods, traders must watch specific “risk-defining” levels to know when the tide is turning.

    The Bearish Trigger: Watch $63.84

    Looking at the hourly chart, the immediate line in the sand is the rising 100-hour moving average, currently located at $63.84.

    • The Rule: For the bearish bias to increase, the price must break—and stay—below this moving average.

    Secondary Support: The Trendline Test

    Below the 100-hour MA lies a critical upward-sloping trendline that has been tested multiple times. This trendline support currently comes in near $62.70 and is rising.

    If sellers can push the price below both the $63.84 moving average and the $62.70 trendline, it would mark a significant technical victory for the bears. In that scenario, the focus would shift to the rising 200-hour moving average, currently at $61.72, as the next downside target.

    Bottom Line: Until those levels are broken, the sellers are not in control, and the path of least resistance remains to the upside.

    Watch the video analysis

    In the video above, I (Greg Michalowski, author of Attacking Currency Trends) break down the technical factors driving the price of silver in real time, outlining the bias, the risk-defining levels, and the next upside and downside targets that matter most.

    Be aware. Be prepared.

    This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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