Light Crude Oil Futures Analysis with tradeCompass for Today and This Week (25 November 2025)
Recent Oil Market Drivers
Crude oil remains under pressure as fresh geopolitical and supply news adds to an already heavy macro backdrop. Russia and China signaled interest in expanding oil exports despite ongoing US sanctions that are squeezing several major producers. At the same time, Canada appears close to approving a key heavy-oil pipeline connecting Alberta to the British Columbia coast, a development that may boost longer-term supply capacity. On the technical front, crude recently settled at 58.84 and briefly tested the 100 hour moving average during a rebound attempt, but that bounce failed to convert into sustained strength.
These news items reinforce an environment where supply remains steady to rising, placing more weight on downside scenarios unless clear bullish triggers emerge.
Crude Oil Market Snapshot
(prices are for futures, ticker CL1!)
Price at time of analysis: 58.62
Month to date: minus 5%
Three months: minus 7.34%
Year to date: minus 18%
This week: minus 1.76%
Since yesterday’s close: minus 0.37%
Crude remains a structurally weak asset this quarter. The significant support low at 55.96, in place since 20 October, still holds for now. The broader April to September base around 55.12 also remains intact, but sellers are showing persistence and nothing rules out a break below these levels if momentum intensifies.
tradeCompass Thresholds for Today’s Oil Traders
Bearish below 58.65.
Bullish above 58.80.
Current price sits just below the bearish threshold, which technically activates the short side. Conservative traders may wait for a clearer dwell below 58.65, but strictly speaking, the bearish plan is live. The bullish side only activates if crude climbs above 58.80 with follow through.
Bearish Trade Plan for Oil Today
(Active while price stays under 58.65)
Below are the bearish partial profit targets, each with a distinct technical justification.
58.53
Tactical liquidity pocket that often gets cleared early in a downside extension. Useful for quick risk reduction, not for moving stops.
58.42
Just beneath the session low and aligned with the second lower VWAP deviation. tradeCompass traders typically move the stop to entry once this target is hit.
58.28
Located well above yesterday’s VWAP but intersects a notable liquidity pool from the previous session. Clean place for another scale out.
58.02
Sits just above yesterday’s value area low, often a level where responsive buyers appear briefly. Logical ladder exit.
57.52
In line with the low from two days ago. If reached, market sentiment is likely deteriorating again.
If crude breaks below 57.40, swing traders can begin monitoring 55.00 as the next medium term bearish objective.
Bullish Trade Plan for Oil Today
(Only active if price climbs and holds above 58.80)
59.02
First upside magnet and early liquidity pocket.
59.32
Aligned with the VWAP from 19 November. Often acts as a pull target during intraday rebounds.
59.61
Upper liquidity zone that tends to attract price during stronger intraday pushes.
59.98
A round number magnet and another key 19 November reference level.
For swing traders, a sustained break above 60.10 opens the door toward 61.47 as the next medium-term target.
Crude Oil Market Context for This Week
Crude has traded in a clear range between 57.5 and 60 for more than three days. There is no technical evidence yet of a breakout either way. Until one of the outer bands is convincingly breached, markets should expect rotational behavior. tradeCompass thresholds help position for that rotation while still keeping traders prepared for a breakout when it finally comes.
Educational Insight
Today’s plan makes heavy use of VWAP standard deviations. These bands expand and contract throughout the session based on real trading activity. When price pushes into a lower deviation band during a downtrend, it often signals either exhaustion or the next acceleration. This is why several partial profit levels align with deviation boundaries. They serve as both magnets and potential turning points.
Trade Management Guidance
Use one trade per direction as defined by tradeCompass.
Move your stop to entry after hitting the second target.
Do not place your stop beyond the opposite threshold since crossing that level invalidates the idea.
A central principle in the tradeCompass methodology is that the difference between a winning trade and an unprofitable one often comes down to disciplined partial profit taking and the timely move of the stop to the entry. This is true for intraday traders using tight tradeCompass targets and it is equally true for swing traders following our buyTheDip ideas on the InvestingLive StocksTelegram channel. The core idea is simple. Once the market gives you a measurable reward, you must protect it. In intraday tradeCompass plans we move the stop only after the second partial target because the distance between targets is smaller and we do not want normal intraday noise to stop us out prematurely. But in longer horizon buyTheDip trades, where targets are wider and swings more pronounced, we move the stop immediately after the first target fills. This keeps you in the game for the larger upside while removing the possibility of a significant drawdown.
The recent Bitcoin example made this principle very clear. After the first dip was bought, Bitcoin rallied apx. 3% and hit our first target. We took partial profits and moved the stop to entry as instructed. When Bitcoin later reversed again before finding its current bullish trend, we were protected. The initial scale out secured gains and the stop at entry ensured that the remainder of the position could not turn into a loss. Without this defensive management, that early profit would have turned into frustration and possibly real damage to the trading account. This is why tradeCompass repeatedly emphasizes that partial profit taking is not optional and stop movement is not cosmetic. They are the cornerstone of consistent risk management and the reason traders can stay active without being washed out by normal volatility.
Final Note for investingLive.com users
This is decision-support content, not investment advice. Markets can move quickly and traders should always manage position size and risk carefully. Visit investingLive.com for additional views.
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.
