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Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1314; (P) 1.1363; (R1) 1.1449; More… EUR/USD is still bounded in consolidation below 1.1472 and intraday bias remains neutral. Deeper retreat cannot be ruled out. But downside should be contained by 1.1145 resistance turned support to bring another rally. On the upside, break of 1.1472 will target 161.8% projection of 1.0358 to […]

The post EUR/USD Mid-Day Outlook appeared first on Action Forex.

• Most indicators point to inflation returning to target
• Inflation has declined
• Geopolitical tensions are a major source of uncertainty
• A strong euro could push down inflation

The euro has edged lower as she takes a dovish tone. The market is pricing in a 68% chance of a rate cut in June.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The USDCAD has rebounded after finding firm support in the 1.3827–1.39499 zone, where multiple recent lows have formed a solid base. The pair has pushed back above the 100-hour moving average, currently near 1.3880, but bullish momentum has stalled, suggesting hesitation from buyers.

To build on this recovery, the pair needs to hold above the 100-hour MA and push toward the next upside targets:

• Swing area between 1.3923-1.2932

• Broken 61.8%retracement at 1.39465

• 200-day moving average at 1.4005

• 38.2% of the move down from the April 7 high at 1.40062

• 200-hour moving average at 1.40135

These resistance levels align closely and could act as a key decision area for traders. A break above would strengthen the bullish outlook and open the path toward the 50% retracement near 1.4061.

On the downside, a break below recent lows at 1.38278 would have traders looking toward the low price from November at 1.38171. Move below that level and the door for further downside momentum is opened (see post from yesterday for more information).

For now, price action is constructive off the lows, but confirmation through follow-through buying is critical to shift the broader bias.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Donald Trump wrote today that he likes ECB policy, how about Fed Chair Lagarde?

For now, her job is European rate and we will hear from her at 8:45 am ET or 1345 GMT. Better than the video is the low-latency feed here.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The ECB cut rates by 25 basis points, as expected, with a unanimous decision. The press conference is set to begin at 8:45 AM ET.

From a technical perspective, the EURUSD broke below its 100-hour moving average, currently at 1.13495—a key short-term bias barometer. The break increases the bearish tilt, with the next key target coming in at the 1.1271–1.1275 area. That zone includes:

• The July 2023 high at 1.1275

• The 61.8% retracement of the 2020 high to 2022 low at 1.12709

A break below this dual support would further open the downside. Watch for additional targets at the 38.2% retracement of the recent move up from last week’s low and the rising 200-hour moving average.

Sellers are starting to take control—but need follow-through below key support to build momentum.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US initial jobless claims fell -9k to 215k in the week ending April 12, below expectation of 224k. Four-week moving average of initial claims fell -2.5k to 221k. Continuing claims rose 41k to 1885k in the week ending April 5. Four-week moving average of continuing claims rose 1k to 1867k. Full US jobless claims release […]

The post US initial jobless claims fall to 215k, vs exp 224k appeared first on Action Forex.

• Monetary policy is well positioned, doesn’t see need to change rates any time soon
• Tariffs will drive up inflation this year and lower growth

There isn’t much support for a rate cut any time soon, though markets are pricing in a big pivot and quickly.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.