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Let’s dive straight into the calls (h/t @ MNI Markets).

Deutsche Bank- 25 bps rate cut- “Even with the US tariff pause, the arguments now clearly favour a cut”- “The hit to growth from reciprocal tariffs, uncertainty and financial conditions likely exceeds what the ECB
was expecting”- “We expect the “meaningfully less restrictive” language to remain in April despite another rate cut. In
combination with the view that inflation is returning to target, this has an implicit dovish leaning”- ECB will keep the data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach to
determining the “appropriate stance”- “We think the risks of disinflation are being underestimated, and we hold our 1.5% terminal rate view”

Societe Generale- 25 bps rate cut but not ruling out a 50 bps move “to more clearly exit the restrictive stance”- “The downside risk to growth and inflation should dominate any worries over one-off increases
in the price level”- “The message after the April
meeting will be much more focused on the disinflationary forces, stemming from weaker global and US
growth, lower energy prices, a stronger EURUSD, and a higher risk of China redirecting excess capacity
into Europe”- “While we would argue that neutral is likely somewhat higher than the ECB’s 1.75-2.25% in normal
conditions, we think there is margin for the ECB to err on the downside under the current conditions”

UBS- 25 bps rate cut- “We do not think the ECB will cut rates by 50 bps, given the current uncertainty over the degree
of EU retaliation (which would likely be inflationary), the duration of US tariffs at current levels (i.e. the
success of future negotiations) and – more broadly – the broader impact on Eurozone growth and inflation”- “We expect the ECB to follow up with another 25 bps rate cut to 2.0% in June”- “Another 25bp rate cut to 1.75% in July is not our base case scenario right now”- “That said, we think the hurdle towards a July cut to 1.75% is not very high, particularly if US tariffs appear
more permanent and the EU retaliates only to a limited extent, generating little additional inflation pressure;
a strong EUR and higher bond yields would also prove disinflationary and help the ECB to cut”

Goldman Sachs- 25 bps rate cut- “ECB to acknowledge the growing downside risks to growth and note that the
trade tensions raise the uncertainty around the inflation outlook”- “We expect the ECB to
remove the “meaningfully less restrictive” phrase but keep the remaining policy language unchanged”- “During the press conference, we look for President Lagarde to signal more concern around growth due to
the trade tensions but remain non-committal on future policy steps”- A 25 bps rate cut in June is “highly probable” before another expected rate cut in July- “Our updated ECB scenario analysis includes a downside scenario where the policy rate falls to 0.75% (for
example, if the euro area enters a deeper downturn) and an upside scenario where the policy rate remains
at 2% (for example, if the US administration reverts to narrower tariffs)”- Sees a 50% probability of
baseline, 30% upside and 20% downside in the scenario analysis

Commerzbank- 25 bps rate cut- ECB will probably describe its
current monetary policy as “neutral”- “We now expect interest rates to be cut
not only in June but also in September” due to US tariffs- “ECB is likely to be cautious in its communication and leave all doors open”, no kind of forward guidance is expected- “We
assume that monetary policy will no longer be described as “becoming meaningfully less restrictive”, rather it is likely to have reached the “neutral range” according to policymakers”

This is a very neat summary of the consensus view going into the meeting later:

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

UnitedHealth pulls the heaviest weight in the Dow and so them slashing earnings outlook for the year while reporting an earnings miss in Q1 is weighing on the index. Dow futures have erased earlier gains to be down 0.8% now with UNH shares indicated down by over 16% in pre-market trading.

This is also weighing slightly on the broader market mood with S&P 500 futures seeing gains chipped away to 0.6%. Tech shares remain buoyed with Nasdaq futures up 1.0% at the moment. The drag on UnitedHealth is also weighing on other health insurers such as Elevance and CVS Health. The former is down by 8% while the latter is down nearly 9% respectively in pre-market trading.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Powell is always too late and wrong.
• Fed should have lowered interest rates long ago.
• Powell’s termination cannot come fast enough.

Trump has been criticising Powell since his first term. Powell’s term expires in May 2026.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

The rate decision is going to be rather straightforward, with the ECB set to cut key policy rates by 25 bps today. So, is there anything else to watch out for as the central bank delivers the same decision for a sixth consecutive time? Let’s take a look.

The thing that will be scrutinised heavily from the statement today will of course be this part. The ECB in March tweaked their language on restrictiveness in saying that “monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive”. The previous statement before that said “monetary
policy remains restrictive”.

So, are they about to change that up again in April amid the mixture of risks from US tariffs?

That’s the key thing to look out for in the statement, in seeing if the ECB has the appetite to switch so hastily to a more neutral stance.

But even so, don’t expect that to change the bigger picture outlook for the central bank though. Amid downside risks to the economy, they are still expected to deliver more rate cuts down the road. The question though is by how much more?

The issue here is that all of this hinges on how Trump’s tariffs are going to play out in the weeks/months ahead. And even if not directly regarding trade with the EU, even US-China relations will have a spillover impact. So, that needs to be considered as well.

In that lieu, the main takeaway is that the ECB will surely continue their meeting-by-meeting approach. And that’s basically the more important thing right now.

As such, even with the removal of the phrase “monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive” it doesn’t mean a material change to the ECB’s next steps. They still have to take things one meeting at a time considering what’s at stake.

In essence, the ECB will not offer much of any forward guidance and stick to a more flexible i.e. data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach.

Besides that, the only other thing today will be to watch out for Lagarde’s press conference. I wouldn’t expect too much though as I would wager that Lagarde is going to place a lot of emphasis on this one word: uncertainty. She will likely stress a great deal on that and avoid committing to anything.

No doubt she will be questioned as well on any removal of the above phrase as she said before this that:

“It’s not just, you know, an innocuous little change, it’s a change that has a certain meaning. We are now moving by having our monetary policy is
becoming meaningfully less restrictive to a more evolutionary approach.”

So, to move on from that so quickly will definitely invite some jabs from the press. But at this stage, she can easily dodge that by pointing to Trump’s tariffs and the uncertain nature of its impact on the euro area economy and inflation.

There’s a slight chance that markets could take all of this to mean a more hawkish stance. But if Lagarde plays her cards right, markets will be left waiting on trade developments in the aftermath – the same as before.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Putin had a long conversation with Trump’s envoy Witkoff about Ukraine.
• Now the United States is continuing with Europeans and Ukrainians.
• Unfortunately, so far we only see the Europeans focusing on a continuation of the war.

More from the Russian Foreign Ministry:

• Ukraine continues to break on a daily basis the moratorium on energy strikes.
• Ukraine has struck Russian energy infrastructure more than 80 times since agreeing to the moratorium.
• We have passed this data on Ukrainian energy strikes to the Americans.

Today there is a meeting in Paris during which the US Secretary of State Rubio and special envoy Witkoff will meet President Macron and other European officials to negotiate a peace deal. Ukrainian officials and President Zelensky will also be present.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.