Deutsche Bank has lifted its 2026 gold forecast, citing a rare alignment of structural and technical forces that continue to push the metal beyond historical patterns.
Analysts said gold’s performance is increasingly breaking from long-standing norms, noting that its outperformance relative to the US dollar now rivals a record set only last year. They also highlight that the projected 2025 trading range is the widest since 1980, a signal of elevated two-way volatility and persistent structural demand.
Deutsche Bank points to several supportive factors.
Structural demand remains “inelastic,” the bank said, with continued reserve-manager accumulation and ETF allocation diverting supply away from jewellery markets at a time when overall demand continues to outpace available supply.
However, the bank emphasised that risks remain.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Christian Hawkesby said the central bank is now more confident that monetary policy has shifted firmly into stimulatory territory after a series of substantial cash-rate cuts.
Speaking on Thursday, NZ time, he suggested the economic recovery could come through “faster and stronger” than previously expected, while acknowledging the downside risk that households and businesses remain overly cautious into late 2025 and early 2026.
Hawkesby also raised concerns about a global trend toward eroding central-bank operational independence, warning that diminished autonomy could leave inflation less controlled worldwide.
Domestically, he noted that the New Zealand dollar continues to function as a shock absorber, helping cushion the economy through external volatility.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
HSBC expects OpenAI to remain unprofitable until at least 2030, warning that the company will need an additional US$207 billion to fund its rapidly expanding compute footprint. While the bank analysts project OpenAI’s revenue could exceed US$213 billion by the end of the decade, it argues that infrastructure demands will vastly outpace cash generation.
The team, led by Nicolas Cote-Colisson, said OpenAI’s growth trajectory confronts “soaring infrastructure costs,” intensifying competition and an AI landscape that is “cash-intensive beyond any technology trend in history.”
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
JPMorgan has reversed its stance on U.S. monetary policy and now expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the December meeting. Chief US economist Michael Feroli said recent remarks from senior Fed officials, especially New York Fed President John Williams, point clearly toward a near-term easing move. The bank had previously forecast no change after the delayed September jobs report muddied the signal.
JPMorgan now expects quarter-point cuts in both December and January. Feroli noted that the latest round of Fedspeak “tilts the odds” toward action, aligning the bank’s view with market pricing, where swaps imply roughly a >80% chance of a December cut.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Soaring NZ retail sales for Q3 2025.
New Zealand Retail Sales +1.9% q/q
New Zealand Retail Sales Quarterly vs. Year Ago +4.5%
Signs of a New Zealand economy getting off the canvas has been welcomed by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand. The Bank pushed the door shut on further rate cuts in is statement/minutes/conference yesterday. Barring a return to poor economic performance, of course.
The new Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor, Dr Anna Breman, will begin on 1 December 2025. She’s walking into an improved situation.
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The NZD remained firm on Wednesday trade in Europe and US after jumping here in Asia after the RBNZ announcement:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
The US Dollar traded mostly lower against most major peers today (with the notable exception of the Yen), as risk appetite returned to the markets and specific domestic catalysts drove outperformance in the New Zealand Dollar and British Pound.
1. The RBNZ Shock: A “Hawkish Cut” (NZD +1.32%)
The New Zealand Dollar (Kiwi) was the undisputed top performer of the day, surging 1.32% to 0.5694.
The Catalyst: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points to 2.25%, as widely expected.
The Twist: Despite the cut, the move was interpreted as “hawkish” because the RBNZ explicitly signaled that the easing cycle is effectively over. Governor Christian Hawkesby’s committee indicated that rates are likely to remain on hold throughout 2026, defying market expectations for deeper cuts.
Market Reaction: This “one-and-done” signal forced a massive repricing of interest rate expectations, triggering a short squeeze that propelled the Kiwi significantly higher against the Greenback and the Aussie.
2. Sterling and the Budget (GBP +0.49%)
The British Pound (Cable) staged a solid recovery, rising 0.49% to 1.3231, as markets reacted positively to Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ Autumn Budget.
Budget Summary: The Chancellor delivered a “growth-focused” budget that avoided the worst-case tax scenarios feared by the City. Key points included:
No new bank taxes: A decision to avoid a fresh tax squeeze on the banking sector reassured investors.
Fiscal Headroom: The release (inadvertently leaked early by the OBR) revealed a larger-than-anticipated fiscal buffer, signaling fiscal responsibility alongside investment.
Lack of 2026 Tax Hikes: The absence of aggressive future tax hikes for the coming year calmed “budget jitters.”
Market Reaction: The combination of fiscal prudence and growth initiatives triggered a relief rally. Gilt yields eased, and the Pound moved higher as the “uncertainty risk premium” that had weighed on the currency in recent weeks evaporated.
3. Broader Currency Moves
USD/JPY (+0.27% to 156.46): The Yen was an outlier, weakening slightly against the Dollar. This move largely reflects improved global risk sentiment (equity markets recovering, fueled by reports of a potential Ukraine-Russia peace framework), which reduced demand for safe-haven assets like the Yen. The lower JPY also occurred despite expectations that the BOJ may look to raise rates in reaction to the weaker JPY. Well the JPY was weaker today.
USD/CAD (-0.41% to 1.4038): The Canadian Dollar strengthened (pushing USD/CAD lower) despite oil prices testing key support levels. The Loonie likely benefited from the broad weakness in the USD and positive cross-border trade sentiment.
AUD/USD (+0.76% to 0.6516): The Australian Dollar rallied in sympathy with the NZD and benefited from the overall “risk-on” tone in global markets.
Fundamentally and other market data.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
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