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  • Federal Reserve minutes from the November meeting:Little changed since the previous report

    Reported headlines from the report.

    • Economic activity was little changed since the previous report, according to most of the twelve Federal Reserve districts, though two districts noted a modest decline and one reported modest growth.

    • Some contacts noted an increased risk of slower activity in coming months, while some optimism was noted among manufacturers.

    • Wages generally grew at a modest pace; however, some sectors such as manufacturing and construction saw firmer gains. The report was prepared at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas based on information collected on or before November 17, 2025.

    • Prices rose moderately during the reporting period.

    Employment

    • Employment declined slightly, with about half of Districts reporting weaker labor demand.

    • Firms relied more on hiring freezes, replacement-only hiring, attrition, and hour adjustments rather than layoffs.

    • Layoff announcements increased, but were not the primary method of reducing headcount.

    • Some employers adjusted hours worked to match business volume instead of changing staffing levels.

    • AI adoption replaced some entry-level roles or boosted productivity enough to limit new hiring.

    • Labor availability improved overall, though shortages persisted in certain skilled positions and areas with fewer immigrant workers.

    • Wage growth was modest, though manufacturing, construction, and health care faced more moderate wage pressures due to tighter labor supply.

    • Rising health-insurance premiums continued to lift overall labor costs.

    Prices

    • Prices rose moderately across the economy.

    • Input-cost pressures were widespread in manufacturing and retail, driven largely by tariffs.

    • Rising costs were also reported for insurance, utilities, technology, and health care.

    • Ability to pass higher costs to customers varied, depending on demand, competition, and customer pushback.

    • Several firms reported margin compression or financial strain due to tariffs.

    • Some materials saw price declines because of sluggish demand or reduced/delayed tariffs.

    • Most contacts expect upward cost pressures to persist, though plans for near-term price increases remain mixed.

    Regionally:

    Boston

    Slight economic expansion; home sales strengthened while consumer spending stayed flat. Employment edged lower, wages rose modestly, and price pressures were mild outside of groceries. Outlook mildly optimistic.

    New York

    Activity declined modestly; slight job losses and some major layoffs. Prices rose more slowly but stayed elevated. Manufacturing improved moderately, but consumer spending softened. Little improvement expected ahead.

    Philadelphia

    Activity declined modestly, worsened by the government shutdown. Employment fell, and price pressures continue to strain lower-income households. Policy uncertainty is stressing small businesses.

    Cleveland

    Slight uptick in activity, though expectations are flat. Professional services demand rose, manufacturing slipped slightly but benefited from AI-related demand. Nonlabor costs stayed high; selling prices rose moderately.

    Richmond

    Modest growth overall. Consumer spending increased slightly, but manufacturing contracted. Employment held steady with moderate wage gains. Price growth also moderate.

    Atlanta

    Activity mostly unchanged. Employment flat, and wages/prices modestly higher. Retail slowed; travel was flat to down. Home sales fell, but commercial real estate improved. Transportation and manufacturing steady; energy demand up.

    Chicago

    Slight economic growth across employment, spending, construction, real estate, and manufacturing. Prices rose moderately; wages modestly. Financial conditions loosened slightly. Farm income outlook for 2025 improved.

    St. Louis

    Activity and employment unchanged but demand continues to soften, worsened by the shutdown. Prices rose moderately, with expectations of stronger price growth ahead. Outlook slightly pessimistic.

    Minneapolis

    Flat overall activity. Small decline in head counts with somewhat better labor supply. Price pressures increased. Auto sales rose, but overall consumer spending fell. Manufacturing, home sales, and commercial construction rose; agriculture remained weak.

    Kansas City

    Growth slowed slightly amid softer labor conditions and cooling consumer spending. Wages kept pace with cost-of-living. Prices rose modestly, with only partial pass-through of higher input costs. Firms still expect employment gains.

    Dallas

    Activity weakened slightly, led by declines in services, retail, and banking. Housing remained weak; energy flat. Manufacturing was the relative bright spot. Employment fell overall, prices rose moderately, and outlooks worsened amid economic and policy concerns.

    San Francisco

    Mixed conditions. Employment steady, wages up somewhat, prices modestly higher. Retail, agriculture, and housing softened, while services, manufacturing, and commercial real estate held steady. Lending activity improved slightly.

    The expectations for a rate cut in December stays a steady at around 84%.

    This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

  • AUDUSD Technicals: The AUDUSD trades to new highs and extends above MA targets

    The AUDUSD is stretching to a new high and in the process has moved above the 100 and 200 bar MAs on the 4-hour chart between 0.64983 and 0.6509. That is now close support for traders.

    The price is testing a swing area between 0.6514 and 0.6518 at the highs and need to break above that area to give the buyers more confidence. A move above that level would then target the 100 day moving average at 0.65325.

    The video above outlines the levels in play and explains the risk and the targets.

    This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

  • Bitcoin pops after breaking above 200 hour moving average

    The price of bitcoin has been under pressure since reaching the last peak on October 27 near $116,381. Since then the price has moved down to a low price of $80,533 – reaching that level on November 21.

    The move back to the upside extended up to $89,222 on Monday’s trade and the price has just reached just short of that the level at $89,156. A move above that level should open the door for further upside momentum.

    Technically, the price extended back above its falling 100 hour moving average on Sundays trade and has used that moving average as a support level (with some modest breaks here and there) since that time. However, the 200 hour moving average has been a topside resistance level as well.

    In the current hourly bar, the price finally broke above that 200 hour moving average (Green line on the chart above). The break above the moving average at $87,691, gave the buyers the go-ahead to push to the upside.

    The current price is now trading above Monday’s high – reaching a new intraday high $89,698. Buyers are making a play. Can they keep the momentum going? The next target comes in at the 38.2% retracement of the move down from the October high at $94,229.

    This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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