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As Beijing signals its readiness to engage in talks with the Trump administration, reaching a comprehensive deal will be a complex and time-consuming endeavor.

S&P 500 futures are up 0.7% on the day and that sets up the cash index to eye a potential ninth consecutive day of gains. It’s been an impressive rebound in Wall Street to say the least, on what has been a lot talking the talk but nothing about walking the walk just yet. This time around, China is the one reportedly delivering some hopeful optimism here. Is that opening a slight gap in the door for Trump? We’ll see. But for now, we’re not at the point of picking up the phone just yet on either side.

In any case, the S&P 500 now looks poised to recover the 61.8 Fib retracement of the fall since February as the rebound continues.

That is encouraging but there will be bigger technical hurdles to get through just above that. The 100 (red line) and 200-day (blue line) moving averages will present key challenges before thinking about retesting the highs near 6,000 to 6,100 again.

Besides trade developments, we also had Amazon and Apple earnings come in. And while both delivered better than estimates, the latter does have a caveat. Greater China sales roughly met estimates with a $16.0 billion figure but that is down a little over 2% compared to a year ago. That is evident of a shift in spending mindset and perhaps the toll taken from the US-China trade rhetoric spilling over into consumer behaviour. If anything, we’ll likely see this figure shrink the longer the trade war rages on.

As for the day ahead, there will also be the US jobs report to look out for. Any thinking of layoffs in logistics and retail related to tariffs should be quickly dispelled here as it is still too early to see that show up in the data.

It will still take a few months of hard data hitting hard before really leading to freight and trucking services to cut labour costs. But when it starts to hit, the cascading effect can be quick to catch on. So, just be wary of that.

As such, the non-farm payrolls data today shouldn’t be too much of a factor besides looking into the wider impact of DOGE layoffs. If you’re looking for any impact from tariffs here, this isn’t the time yet.

And that means trade headlines or should I say Trump headlines, will continue to take on more importance.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

Yen weakness remains the dominant theme in an otherwise range-bound forex market today. While all other major pairs and crosses are contained within yesterday’s trading range, the Japanese currency continues to lose ground as traders react to BoJ’s dovish tone. Governor Kazuo Ueda attempted to soften the impact of the downgraded growth outlook and emphasized […]

The post FX Markets Hold Range While Yen Extends Slide appeared first on Action Forex.

U.S. Vice President Vance: Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going to end any time soon.

• up to the Russians and Ukrainians now
  that each side knows what the other’s terms for peace are
• its going to be up to them to come to an agreement and stop this
  brutal, brutal conflict
• “Its not going anywhere, Bret. It’s not going to end any
  time soon,”

Vance’s comments came during a Fox News interview.

Dialling back geopolitical tension such as ending this war, was a promise Vance and his boss made, it was always a stretch.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

That headline is via Reuters, recapping the bombshell remark from Kato earlier. Kato made the comments while appearing on a television program.

Kato is Japan’s Finance Minister. He said the country’s massive holdings of U.S. Treasuries could serve as a potential bargaining tool in trade negotiations with Washington — though he emphasized there’s no commitment to actually using that option.

• noted that while Japan’s main reason for holding such large reserves is to maintain sufficient liquidity for possible yen intervention, “we obviously need to put all cards on the table in negotiations. It could be among such cards.”
• he was quick to add a caveat: “Whether we actually use that card, however, is a different question.”

—

Japan holds around $1.27 trillion in foreign reserves, most of which analysts believe is in U.S. Treasury debt, though the government doesn’t publicly detail the composition.

Threatening to offload some is a big step.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Apple almost nailed it.

The vast majority of Apple’s products are “currently not subject” to Trump’s tariffs, CEO Tim Cook said. But beyond June, he didn’t say much.

A downside surprise could be perilous for the market considering the recent spate of bad economic news and the prevailing angst over tariffs.