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The Bank of Japan (BoJ) board members shared their views on the monetary policy outlook on Wednesday, per the BoJ Minutes of the September meeting.
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BoJ Sept minutes: Current real interest rates are very low, will hike if data indicates
Bank of Japan minutes of the September meeting. The meeting created some shock waves with two dissenters seeking an immediate rate rise. The minutes show cautious path toward further rate hikes amid trade uncertainty
The Bank of Japan’s September meeting minutes revealed policymakers broadly agreed that real interest rates remain very low, and the central bank will likely continue gradually raising rates if its projections for growth and inflation hold.
Members highlighted “high uncertainty” surrounding global trade policy, with several officials emphasising the need to scrutinise how trade developments impact Japan’s economy and prices before adjusting policy further.
A few participants argued it was appropriate to maintain current monetary settings in the near term to observe the effects of recent U.S. tariffs and global economic headwinds. One member warned that Japan’s economy could stall temporarily due to U.S. trade measures, suggesting monetary policy should continue to support activity for now.
Another member said that while the conditions for another rate hike are gradually falling into place, the BOJ should avoid surprising markets with a premature move, and it “would not be too late” to wait for more hard data before normalisation proceeds.
Additional minutes showed that one policymaker suggested it might be a good time to resume rate hikes, noting that more than half a year has passed since the last increase, though it would be prudent to wait for greater clarity on the extent of the U.S. economic slowdown before acting.
Another member emphasised the importance of being able to predict with some certainty—based on corporate profits and preliminary wage-negotiation data—that the wage-hike trend of recent years will not be disrupted, underscoring the need for confidence in sustained income growth before tightening further.
The minutes underscore the BOJ’s data-dependent and cautious approach as it balances emerging inflation persistence against risks from global trade disruptions and policy tightening abroad.
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Full text:
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From the day:
We had the “Summary of Opinions” from this back on September 30.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
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US President Donald Trump said he met with senior representatives from Switzerland to discuss trade and other issues, describing the talks as productive and praising both sides “on a job well done.”
“The meeting was adjourned with the understanding that our Trade Representative, Jamieson Greer, will discuss the subjects further with Switzerland’s Leaders,”
Trump wrote on Truth Social.The upbeat tone could mark progress in efforts to resolve a trade dispute that has weighed on ties since August, when the US imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss imports following a tense call between Trump and Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter in late July.
Bern has sought to ease tensions by offering a package of investment pledges and deficit-reduction proposals, though Keller-Sutter warned last month that a deal this year remained uncertain.
“Everything depends on whether the U.S. president gives the green light or not,”
Keller-Sutter told the Tages-Anzeiger newspaper.Neither the Swiss embassy nor the White House offered immediate comment following Tuesday’s meeting. The tariffs affect less than 10% of Swiss exports, but have hit machinery makers especially hard amid broader weakness in European manufacturing.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
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