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ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Bank of Japan kept short-term interest rate at 0.5%

News /

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The
Bank of Japan kept its short-term interest rate at 0.5%, a widely
exp4ected on hold decision. The BoJ cited growing headwinds from
higher US tariffs. The Bank cut its 2025 and 2026 economic growth
forecasts in its quarterly outlook report. This was a not unexpected
move. A cautious BoJ today.

USD/JPY has risen towards 143.50 with the net dovish statement
and report.

Dialling
back the clock a little to before that focal point for the session.

In
late US time United
States trade representative Greer
admitted
that
there are no official talks with China on trade, He
said also that ‘initial’ trade deals with some other countries
are still weeks away.

Australia
published March trade data, showing a widening surplus on a surge in
exports, up 7.6% m/m on gold (26% rise in non-monetary gold
shipments) and other commodity shipments. Iron ore exports recovered
from weather disruptions.

Exports
to the US jumped. Australia runs a trade deficit with the US but in
March recorded a surplus ahead of tariffs.

Imports
dropped by 2.2% m/m, capital goods showing a notable drop.

Also
from Australia today were export and import price indexes. Consumer
goods import prices rose, which may impact inflation ahead if such
rises continue.

Of
note for those with an interest in equities, the Wall Street Journal
reported that Tesla’s board has begun discussions with search firms
to explore potential successors to CEO Elon Musk. In the reports the
Journal noted that Some directors, including Tesla co-founder JB
Straubel, have been meeting with major investors to reassure them the
company is in good hands. This will be in reference to the damage
Musk has inflicted on the brand through his political and ideological
activities. Data from France released today gave some insight into
this. While new
car registrations in France fell 5.64% in April from a year earlier
the figure for Tesla was an order of magnitude worse, Tesla sales
fell 59.45%.

US
equity indexes rose in ‘overnight’ Globex trade, adding to their
solid bounce during Wednesday RTH trade.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Bank of Japan kept short-term interest rate at 0.5% Read More »

Australian March exports +7.6% m/m (prior -4.2%) & Imports -2.2% (prior +1.8%)

News /

NOTE: MY BAD. i HAD THIS WRITTEN BUT DIDN’T REALISE I HAD FORGOTTEN TO PUBLISH THIS EARLIER. APOLOGIES.

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Australia Trade Balance for March 2025: AUD6900mn surplus

  • expected +3200mn, prior +2968mn

Exports +7.6% m/m

  • prior -3.6%

Imports -2.2% m/m

  • prior +1.6%

Earlier:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Read More »

USD/JPY has popped a little higher after the BoJ statement and report – mixed but dovey

News /

I posted the main points here:

In very brief:

  • kept interest rates steady, short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.5% by a unanimous vote
  • cut its growth forecasts
  • cited the damage to global demand from higher U.S. tariffs impacting Japan’s nascent economic recovery

BOJ Governor Ueda press conference is at 0630 GMT

USD/JPY update:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

USD/JPY has popped a little higher after the BoJ statement and report – mixed but dovey Read More »

Bank of Japan leaves policy unchanged, as widely expected

News /

Bank of Japan leaves policy unchanged, as widely expected.

  • BOJ maintains short-term interestst rate target at 0.5%

Board’s core CPI fiscal 2025 median forecast at +2.2% vs +2.4% in January

  • Core CPI fiscal 2026 median forecast at +1.7% vs +2.0% in January
  • Core CPI fiscal 2027 median forecast at +1.9%
  • Core-core CPI fiscal 2025 median forecast at +2.3% vs +2.1% in January
  • Core-core CPI fiscal 2026 median forecast at +1.8% vs +2.1% in January
  • Core-core CPI fiscal 2027 median forecast at +2.0%

BoJ report: will continue to raise policy rate if economy, prices move in line with its forecast

  • Japan’s economic growth likely to moderate
  • Underlying consumer inflation likely to be at level generally consistent with 2% target in second half of projection period from fiscal 2025 through 2027
  • Uncertainty surrounding Japan’s economy, prices remain high
  • Must be vigilant to financial, FX market moves and their impact on economy, prices
  • Risks to economic outlook skewed to downside
  • Risks to inflation outlook skewed to downside
  • Japan’s economy recovering moderately, although some weaknesses are seen
  • Real interest rates are at significant low levels
  • Will conduct monetary policy as appropriate from perspective of sustainably, stably achieving 2% inflation target

BOJ report on risks: trade policy recently announced in each jurisdiction is likely to push down domestic and overseas economies through various channels.

  • Introduction of wide-ranging tariffs is expected to impact global trade activity, uncertainties regarding policies including tariffs are likely to have large impact on business, household sentiment, global financial, capital markets
  • Import prices could rise, and push down domestic demand if disruptions in global logistics were to arise or moves to restructure supply chains were to take place and incur considerable costs

BOJ quarterly report: Important for BoJ to carefully examine factors such as developments in economic activity

  • Important to judge whether the outlook will be realised without any preconception
  • Extreme uncertain how trade and other policies in each jurisdiction will evolve
  • Uncertain how overseas econimic activities and prices will react to them
  • Japan’s financial system has maintained stability on the whole
  • If disruptions in global logistics were to arise or moves to restructure supply chains were to take place and incur considerable costs, import prices could rise
  • This could in turn push down domestic demand
  • Households’ defensive attitudes toward spending could strengthen further, and this could push down the economy
  • A prolonged period of high uncertainties regarding trade and otherpolicies in each jurisdiction could lead firms to focus more on cost cutting
  • Moves to reflect price rises in wages could also weaken

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Background to this:

Still to come is Bank of Japan Governor Ueda’s press conference at 0630 GMT / 0230 US Eastern time.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Bank of Japan leaves policy unchanged, as widely expected Read More »