San Francisco Fed Pres. Mary Daly is speaking and says that she:
Supported rate cut
Rate cut was appropriate
Still have inflation above target, need to get it down
Labor market has softened quite a bit
Need to keep policy modestly restrictive
Open mind on December
50 bps of cuts this year makes Fed better-positioned
Need to make decision that balances risks
Not a more divided Fed than before
Wouldn’t even use the word ‘divided’
Disagreement is usually what you see when world is uncertain.
Everyone should 1 of the FOMC to debate and disagree.
Government data is the only data we get.
Looking ahead requires talking with people.
We have less information than used to, but can still make a decision as needed
Labor market doesn’t look like it’s on a precipice
Will there was a risk, inflation is is still printing around 3%
I look at pockets of saw this as a leading indicator.
If you wait for job market report to tell you if labor market is weak, you are already behind.
Surprised and pleased by the economic resilience.
The Fed cut rates by 100 basis points in 2024. It may be that they cut by 50 basis points in 2025.
The Fed is currently driving in a fog with less data. That could lead to mistakes if they don’t see something. I am sure the Fed is doing all it can to drive through the fog by getting information from other sources. The Fed is closer to neutral that they were 2 cuts ago.
inflation may be lower than expectations but it is still at 3%.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
The Atlanta Fed growth estimate for Q3 rose to 4.0% from 3.9% last
GDPNow is not an official
forecast of the Atlanta Fed.
Rather, it is best viewed as a
running estimate of real GDP
growth based on available
economic data for the current
measured quarter. There are no
subjective adjustments made to
GDPNow—the estimate is based
solely on the mathematical results
of the model.
With the absence of government data, the model is reliant on private data like today’s ISM manufacturing index. Impact was a 0.1% uptick.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
The EURUSD is rebounding in the last few hours of trading, supported by softer economic data that has prompted some short covering. Interestingly, U.S. yields are not lower, with the 10-year up 1.3 basis points at 4.113%, while stocks are off their highs but also off the session lows.
Technically, the pair has climbed back into a key swing area between 1.1518 and 1.1529. A break and hold above this zone could invite additional buying from short-term traders who were disappointed by the earlier downside break. The next upside hurdle comes near 1.1541, which aligns with the lows from October 9 and October 14.
A move above and sustained above 1.1541 would strengthen the bullish case and add confidence that a short-term bottom may be in place for the EURUSD.
Conversely, move back below the 1.15185 level and stay below that level would have traders targeting the low for the day at 1.1506 followed by the 50% midpoint of the move up from the May 13 below. That level comes in at 1.14919.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
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