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Always remember that there’s two sides to the coin

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If there’s one thing that we’ve learnt from Trump over the years, it is that he loves to talk up a big game no matter the situation. Facts or not, that is a separate discussion. And when it comes to boasting about something or anything, it’s the same as well.

As the US and Japan conclude the first round of trade negotiations, Trump said that they made “big progress” in the talks this week. For what it’s worth, he also said that he is “very confident” about a deal with the EU and also that they would “make a very good deal” with China. Call me a skeptic but yeah, it’s not the first time we see Trump talk up something when the reality begs to differ.

In the case of the tariff talks with Japan, Akazawa was less upbeat about the situation as seen here.

There were no major details revealed but the only thing that seems to be agreed upon was that they are going to schedule more discussions in the weeks ahead. Is that really “big progress”?

We’ve seen this sort of episode before. If you recall back to 2019 when the US and China were discussing the Phase One trade deal, we basically got this wild contrast in communication between Trump and China:

Seems familiar?

Back then, Trump said that they struck “a very large deal” and that “Phase Two will begin immediately”. Meanwhile, China said that they only “agreed on the text of the deal, which is still subject to legal review” and that “Phase Two will depend on the implementation on Phase One”.

Of course, we all know how that neither side stuck to the deal whatsoever in the end. But putting that aside, there is a precedent for Trump to make a play on words to give out an entirely different meaning to the actual situation.

As such, keep that in mind when reading into the remarks – not just for Japan, but the entire tariffs saga this time around.

Now, I don’t doubt that there will be a trade deal between the US and Japan. Again, this is supposed to be one of the easiest battles for Trump to claim victory in this tariffs war. However, the details are going to be the key thing.

Japan was slapped with 24% reciprocal tariffs initially before the pause. Now, they’re facing the 10% blanket tariffs alongside the 25% auto tariffs separately. The question then becomes which tariffs will go away after both sides strike an accord?

If there is a compromise on other things instead and the 10% tariffs stay the course, that is going to be a tough example for everyone else. While it might seem good that they didn’t get hit with tariffs of 24% and “only” got 10%, it’s a case of Trump basically hoodwinking the world into believing that is a good thing.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

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Learn Investing: Business Confidence

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Learn Investing: Why Business Confidence Moves Markets (And How to Track It)

Because when CEOs get nervous—or controversial—the market usually reacts.

If you’re new to investing, you probably check things like inflation, interest rates, or stock prices. Those are obvious. But there’s another powerful (and quieter) force that often moves the market before anything else hits the headlines:

Confidence.

And we’re not just talking about business leaders feeling optimistic—we’re also talking about how investors and consumers feel about a brand, a product, or even a CEO.

In fact, former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently said that companies are feeling “paralyzed by uncertainty” amid rising tariffs and policy instability. That’s not just a headline—it’s a signal. Confidence shapes decisions, and decisions shape the market.

Let’s break down why confidence matters, how to track it, and what beginner investors can learn from companies like Tesla, where emotions and leadership perception can be just as important as the product.

Why business confidence is such a big deal

When companies feel good about the future, they:

  • Hire more people

  • Invest in growth

  • Launch new products

  • Borrow and spend confidently

But when they don’t?

  • Hiring freezes

  • Spending delays

  • Conservative guidance

  • And eventually, market pullbacks

Confidence is often the first domino in a chain that leads to stock volatility. It’s one of the earliest signals investors can catch.

What about investor confidence? Let’s talk about Tesla.

It’s not just about CEOs and CFOs feeling optimistic. Investor and consumer confidence in a brand can make or break a stock—especially in the world of consumer-driven companies.

Take Tesla, for example. It’s a company known for innovation, EV leadership, and a product that has deeply loyal fans.

But Tesla is also closely tied to Elon Musk, the company’s CEO and public face. For many investors and consumers, Musk is the brand. That’s great when public perception is positive. But when Musk engages in what some view as extreme political commentary or online behavior, confidence can waver—even if the cars are still top-tier.

What happens next?

  • Retail investors hesitate—they may not want to associate with a brand caught in controversy.

  • Institutional investors grow cautious—not because the company’s fundamentals have changed overnight, but because they sense a shift in consumer sentiment.

  • Stock price suffers, not necessarily due to profits, but due to eroded emotional trust.

This is a classic case of emotional and reputational confidence shaping stock market behavior.

Even with a great product, when a company’s leadership creates friction with its own customer base, it adds instability. That can lead to fewer sales, less favorable analyst ratings, and a short-term (or long-term) hit to the stock.

How to track confidence as an investor

You don’t need to guess what’s going on in boardrooms—or on Twitter—to understand when confidence is shifting. Just watch a few key indicators:

  1. ISM Manufacturing & Services PMIs – Think of this as a real-time check-in with businesses across the country.

  2. Earnings Guidance – When companies start dialing back their own forecasts, take note.

  3. Capital Expenditures – Growth investment is the ultimate vote of confidence from management.

  4. Consumer and Brand Sentiment – When brands like Tesla see public opinion shift, it can be an early warning signal—especially in a social-media-driven world.

  5. CEO Behavior & Public Perception – Like it or not, many stocks today trade on personality as much as performance.

Bottom line: Confidence isn’t just a vibe—it’s market fuel

Confidence shows up in headlines, earnings calls, brand perception—and tweets. And whether it’s Janet Yellen warning about economic paralysis or Elon Musk drawing sharp public reactions, the lesson is the same:

Sentiment drives action, and action drives markets.

As a beginner investor, the sooner you start noticing confidence shifts—whether in economic reports or in the court of public opinion—the sooner you’ll start seeing what moves stocks before everyone else does.

Coming soon: ForexLive is becoming investingLive.com
We’re expanding beyond currencies to help you understand the full picture. Whether you’re tracking inflation, evaluating earnings, or decoding CEO behavior, we’ve got the tools and education to make you a smarter – and confident – investor—one step at a time.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

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