Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.7499; (P) 1.7565; (R1) 1.7599; More… Intraday bias in EUR/AUD remains mildly on the downside for the moment. Fall from 1.8160 is seen as the third leg of the pattern from 1.8554. Deeper decline should be seen to 100% projection of 1.8160 to 1.7561 from 1.7976 at 1.7377. Firm break there will […]
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Press conference following the Bank of Canada rate decision has started.
BOC Gov. TIff Macklem and Senior Deputy Gov. are answering the questions from the press:
What levels should traders watch through the press conference
Technically, the 100 hour moving average remains a short-term target to get above for a more bullish short-term bias shifts. On the downside the 50% midpoint at 1.3839 is the close support level that is broken would shift the short-term bias more to the downside.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Key Data Summary (Actual vs. Estimate vs. Prior)
Crude Stock: -1.812M vs -2.310M est. (Prior +0.574M)
Distillate Stock: +2.502M vs +1.943M est. (Prior +2.059M)
Gasoline Stock: +6.397M vs +2.764M est. (Prior +4.518M)
Crude Imports: +0.212M vs Prior -0.470M (no estimate)
Refinery Utilization: +0.4% vs 0.3% est. (Prior +1.8%)
Crude Cushing Stocks: +0.308M vs Prior -0.457M (no estimate)
Market Summary — Inventories vs. Expectations
This week’s EIA report showed a smaller-than-expected crude draw but the drawdown was less than the private data released late yesterday.
The major standout in the report today was higher than expected gasoline and distillate builds, both of which came in sharply above forecasts — a bearish signal for refined product demand. The private data also showed a gasoline in distillate build.
Crude imports flipped from a decline to a rise, refinery utilization ticked higher, and Cushing stocks increased modestly — all reinforcing a theme of supply increasing faster than demand this week.
The private data released late yesterday showed:
The price of crude oil is trading down $0.42 or -0.72% at $57.83.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Yesterday, the RBA held rates steady, but Governor Bullock delivered a hawkish-leaning message, lifting rate-hike odds into early 2026.
AUDUSD tested multi-day resistance near 0.6648–0.6654, but sellers repeatedly capped gains.
The rising 100-hour moving average at 0.6632 remains the key near-term support, repeatedly attracting dip buyers.
Range remains tight, with buyers and sellers battling between well-defined levels as traders wait for a momentum breakout.
A break below 0.6632 or above 0.6654 will determine the next directional push
Yesterday the RBA held rates steady but leaned to more hawkish
The Reserve Bank of Australia left its cash rate unchanged yesterday, as widely expected. However, the tone from Governor Bullock surprised markets by leaning more hawkish than anticipated. She reiterated that the RBA remains prepared to hike again if inflation fails to moderate, and with the next policy meeting not until February—after the Bank’s summer break—markets are increasingly pricing the risk of a February or early-2026 hike.
The signal was clear: the RBA is not declaring victory on inflation, and the window for another tightening move is still open.
AUDUSD Reaction: Breakout, Failure, and Return to Support
In response to the hawkish tilt, AUDUSD initially pushed higher, rising above prior swing highs from Friday, Monday, and early Tuesday at 0.66488, and extending to 0.6654. But after failing to break through that ceiling, the pair quickly rotated back lower.
During early Asia-Pacific trading today, the pullback reached the rising 100-hour moving average, where buyers stepped in and defended support, pushing the pair back above 0.6648 and retesting the 0.6654 high. Once again, sellers prevailed, sending the price lower.
This repetitive pattern underscores the power of the current range structure.
Technical Battle Zone: Resistance vs. Support
The price action has become highly technical, with traders respecting clear, well-defined levels:
Resistance Zone:
0.6648 – 0.6654
This level has capped rallies for four consecutive trading days, signaling strong selling interest and profit-taking on each test.
Support Zone:
Rising 100-hour moving average (currently 0.6632)
Buyers continue to lean aggressively on this dynamic trend support.
The pair is essentially oscillating between these two areas, building energy for a larger breakout.
What Traders Should Watch Next
Bearish Scenario
If sellers finally push the price below the 100-hour moving average, and the pair stays below it, momentum could accelerate toward the next key downside target:
200-hour moving average near 0.6598
A break of 0.6632 could shift the short-term bias back toward the downside.
Bullish Scenario
If the 100-hour moving average holds once again as support:
Buyers will likely make another run at 0.6648–0.6654,
And a clean break above this ceiling would signal renewed upside momentum, opening the path to new weekly highs.
Bottom Line
AUDUSD is caught in a tight, technically clean battleground. The RBA’s hawkish tilt provides fundamental support, but resistance overhead remains stubborn. Traders should expect the next directional breakout—either below 0.6632 or above 0.6654—to set the tone for the next leg of price action.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
The Bank of Canada (BoC) held its policy rate at 2.25%, in line with market expectations. The opening statement highlighted that while tariffs and trade uncertainty continue to weigh on business investment, the economy has proven to be relatively resilient. However, it noted that measures of hiring intentions remain “subdued” despite the recent improvements in […]
The post Bank of Canada Holds as Expected appeared first on ActionForex.
Markets The European morning session contained little more than the long-drawn waiting exercise that often precedes a Fed policy decision. EMU yields resumed their recent journey ‘north’ that accelerated on comments from ECB board member Schnabel on Monday. She ‘approved’ market pricing taking a rate hike as the ‘base case’ for the next ECB rate […]
The post Sunset Market Commentary appeared first on ActionForex.
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