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  • Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD holds tight range with mild bearish bias

    The Pound Sterling (GBP) trades 0.16% higher to near 1.3320 against the US Dollar (USD) during the European trading session on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair gains as the US Dollar drops slightly amid caution ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcement at 19:00 GMT. Read more…
  • BoC Confirms Long Pause, Markets Pivot to High-Stakes FOMC

    Canadian Dollar eased modestly in early US trading after the BoC left its policy rate unchanged at 2.25%, as markets had fully expected. While the decision itself carried no surprises, the statement struck a slightly cautious tone on growth, prompting a mild pullback in CAD after its recent period of outperformance. Policymakers reiterated that the […]

    The post BoC Confirms Long Pause, Markets Pivot to High-Stakes FOMC appeared first on ActionForex.

  • A line by line comparison of the October and December BOC statements.

    Below is the comparison of the October rates decision to the December rate decision:

    The Bank of Canada today reducedheld
    its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points
    toat 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5%
    and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

    With the effects of US trade actions on economic
    growth and inflation somewhat clearer, the Bank has returned to its usual
    practice of providing a projection for the global and CanadianMajor
    economies in this Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
    Because US trade policy remains unpredictable and around
    the world continue to show resilience to US trade protectionism, but uncertainty
    is still higher than normal, this projection is subject to a
    wider-than-usual range of risks.

    While the global economy has been resilient to the
    historic rise in US tariffs, the impact is becoming more evident. Trade
    relationships are being reconfigured and ongoing trade tensions are dampening
    investment in many countries.high.
    In the MPR projection, the global economy slows from about
    3¼% in 2025 to about 3% in 2026 and 2027.

    In the United States, economic activity
    has been strong, growth is being supported
    by the boomstrong consumption
    and a surge in AI investment. At the same time,
    employment growth has slowed and tariffs have started to push up consumer
    prices. Growth in the euro area is decelerating due to weaker exports and
    slowing domestic demand. In China, lower exports to the United States have been
    offset by higher exports to other countries, but business investment has
    weakened. The US government
    shutdown caused volatility in quarterly growth and delayed the release of some
    key economic data. Tariffs are causing some upward pressure on US inflation. In
    the euro area, economic growth has been stronger than expected, with the services
    sector showing particular resilience. In China, soft domestic demand, including
    more weakness in the housing market, is weighing on growth. Global
    financial conditions have eased further since July and,
    oil prices have been fairly stable. The ,
    and the Canadian dollar has depreciated
    slightly against the US dollar.are all roughly
    unchanged since the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR).

    Canada’s economy contracted by 1.6% in the second
    quarter, reflecting a drop in exports and weak business investment amid
    heightened uncertainty. Meanwhile, household spending grew at a healthy pace.
    US trade actions and related uncertainty are having severe effects on targeted
    sectors including autos, steel, aluminum, and lumber. As a result, GDP growth
    is expected to be weak in the second half of the year. Growth will get some
    support from rising consumer and government spending and residential investment,
    and then pick up gradually as exports and business investment begin to recover.

    Canada’s economy grew by a surprisingly strong 2.6%
    in the third quarter, even as final domestic demand was flat. The increase in
    GDP largely reflected volatility in trade. The Bank expects final domestic
    demand will grow in the fourth quarter, but with an anticipated decline in net
    exports, GDP will likely be weak. Growth is forecast to pick up in 2026,
    although uncertainty remains high and large swings in trade may continue to
    cause quarterly volatility.

    Canada’s labour market remains soft.is
    showing some signs of improvement. Employment has shown solid gains
    in September followed twothe
    past three months of sizeable
    losses. Job losses continue to buildand the
    unemployment rate declined to 6.5% in November. Nevertheless, job markets
    in trade-sensitive sectors andremain
    weak and economy-wide hiring has been weak
    across the economy. The unemployment rate remained at 7.1% in September and
    wage growth has slowed. Slower population growth means fewer new jobs are
    neededintentions continue to keep
    the employment rate steady.

    The Bank projects GDP will grow by 1.2% in 2025,
    1.1% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027. On a quarterly basis, growth strengthens in 2026
    after a weak second half of this year. Excess capacity in the economy is
    expected to persist and be taken up graduallysubdued.

    CPI inflation wasslowed
    to 2.4% in September, slightly higher than the Bank had
    anticipated. Inflation excluding taxes was 2.9%. The Bank’s preferred measures
    of core 2% in October, as gasoline prices fell and food
    prices rose more slowly. CPI inflation have been sticky
    around 3%. Expanding the range of indicators to include alternativehas
    been close to the 2% target for more than a year, while measures
    of core inflation and the distribution of price changes among CPI
    components suggestsremain in the
    range of 2½% to 3%. The Bank assesses that underlying inflation remainsis
    still around 2½%. The Bank expects
    inflationary pressures to ease in the months ahead andIn
    the near term, CPI inflation to remain near 2%
    over the projection horizon.

    With ongoing weakness in the economy andis
    likely to be higher due to the effects of last year’s GST/HST holiday on the
    prices of some goods and services. Looking through this choppiness, the Bank
    expects ongoing economic slack to roughly offset cost pressures associated with
    the reconfiguration of trade, keeping CPI inflation expected
    to remain close to the 2% target, Governing
    Council decided to cut the policy rate by 25 basis points. .

    If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line
    with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at
    about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy
    through this period of structural adjustment. Uncertainty
    remains elevated. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to
    respond. Governing Council will be assessing incoming data
    carefully relative to the Bank’s forecast.

    The Canadian economy faces a difficult transition.
    The structural damage caused by the trade conflict reduces the capacity of the
    economy and adds costs. This limits the role that monetary policy can play to
    boost demand while maintaining low inflation. The Bank is focused
    on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability
    through this period of global upheaval.

    This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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