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“I wanted to go somewhere that was radically different than the U.S.,” says Bert Muller. Today, his restaurant chain has 103 locations across India.

Reuters ECB sources report that a consensus is building for a June rate cut. At the moment the market is pricing in 71% chance of a cut but it looks like the ECB wants to bump that up, given that this report cites six sources.

The report notes that data has been deteriorating but also notes that the euro has strengthened and oil prices have declined.

It also notes that “policymakers saw no reason to consider a 50 basis point cut”.

I would expect this report to put some light pressure on the euro at the open, given that this is a strong signal.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

When Beyoncé and Solange were ages 12 and 7, Tina Knowles took them to counseling together. Here’s why and how it paid off.

Craig Moffett of MoffettNathanson reacts to the report Apple was aiming to shift production toward India.

At the turn of the year, it looked like a certainty that Conservatives would form a large majority in this year’s Canadian election but Trump changed everything. His harsh tariffs on Canada and unceasing 51st state talk upended the focus on housing/immigration/culture and put it squarely on sovereignty.

Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre struggled to strike the right chord on that issue and the Liberal Party replaced the unpopular Justin Trudeau with the electable Mark Carney. With that, and a collapse in the left-leaning NDP, the polls have been flipped upside down.

Liberals now enjoy a roughly 5 point advantage in a split that will likely lead to a majority.

The reversal in fortunes is one of the all-time unexpected swings in western democracies.

Of course, the polls have been wrong many times in the past decade so we will wait for Monday’s results.

If anything, there will be some modest disappointment in CAD if the Liberals win, though I would expect something less than 50 pips in USD/CAD as it should be widely priced in now.

Based on polling averages, Scotia estimates an 80% probability of a Liberal majority. The remaining probabilities are for a Liberal minority or Conservative minority, with only a tail rise of an outright Conservative win.

The worst-case scenario for the loonie would be another Liberal government propped up by the NDP and/or Bloc Quebecois. That would stifle Carney’s touted agenda to improve building conditions in Canada and extend the bloated bureaucracy.

In contrast, if the Conservatives pull out a win, I would expect to see a relief rally in the loonie, that could extend to a full cent — all else equal.

After the dusk settles, I think the larger ultimate signal for Canadian assets will be how Carney forms cabinet. We still have scant ideas on what he wants to do and if he stacks it with former Trudeau ministers — particularly in the environment portfolio — then it could spell trouble.

Most notably though will be how Trump and Carney get along. The early indications are that the 51st state talk isn’t going to go away.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

The tech companies have invested mostly in renewable power, but they are now navigating a changed political environment.

The major US stock indices close the week with a four day when streak. Monday’s declines of over 2.5% were erased on Tuesday. The gains from Wednesday Thursday and Friday were icing on the cake.

The NASDAQ index outpaced the other major indices with a gain of 6.73%.

.For the day, the NASDAQ rose 1.26%

A snapshot of the final numbers shows:

• Dow industrial average rose 20.10 points or 0.05% at 40113.50.
• S&P index rose 40.44 points or 0.74% at 5525.21.
• NASDAQ index rose to 16.90 or 1.26% at 17382.94

for the trading week:

• Dow industrial average rose 2.48%
• S&P index rose 4.59%
• NASDAQ index rose 6.73%

Some of the biggest winners this week included:

• Palantir: +19.88%

• Robinhood Markets: +19.72%

• Trump Media & Technology Group: +18.83%

• Tesla: +18.06%

• SoFi Technologies: +17.21%

• MicroStrategy: +16.26%

• Shopify Inc: +16.10%

• Micron: +15.92%

• Super Micro Computer: +15.76%

• Nio A ADR: +14.35%

• Netflix: +13.20%

• CrowdStrike Holdings: +13.11%

Next week, Microsoft, Amazon, Meta and Apple report earnings. Also, McDonald’s, Starbucks, Pfizer, Exxon Mobil, Coca-Cola, Chevron will all report as well

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Here’s what to know about the current status of the different federal student loan forgiveness opportunites under the Trump administration.

• 🔴 Risks to global trade are the most frequently cited risk to the U.S. financial system, according to new Federal Reserve survey

• 🔴 Fed says growing stablecoin sector remains subject to run risks

• 🔴 Fed says bank funding vulnerabilities in line with historical norms

• 🔴 Fed says funding markets were resilient through early April’s market volatility

• 🔴 Global trade risks, fiscal debt sustainability, and policy uncertainty top concerns of Fed survey respondents

• 🔴 Fed survey respondents also cite foreign divestment from U.S. assets, value of U.S. dollar, as other new potential shocks

• 🔴 Fed survey: Some respondents say ‘incremental tariffs’ may only cause modest disruption

• 🔴 Fed in latest Financial Stability Report says prices remain high relative to fundamentals even after April market turmoil

• 🔴 Fed says liquidity in Treasury and equity markets was low and worsened further in April, though market functioning remained orderly

• 🔴 Fed says Treasury markets continued to see orderly trading, markets continued to function amid recent volatility

• 🔴 Fed says commercial real estate prices showed some signs of stabilizing

• 🔴 Fed says banking system remained sound and resilient, but hedge fund leverage rose to historical highs, concentrated among largest funds

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Monday, April 28

• Canada Federal Election (All day)

Tuesday, April 29

• U.S. JOLTS Job Openings (Forecast: 7.48M; Prior: 7.57M)

• Australia CPI q/q (Forecast: 0.8%; Prior: 0.2%)

• Australia CPI y/y (Forecast: 2.3%; Prior: 2.4%)

• Australia Trimmed Mean CPI q/q (Forecast: 0.6%; Prior: 0.5%)

• China Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 49.8; Prior: 50.5)

• Germany Preliminary CPI m/m (Forecast: 0.4%; Prior: 0.3%)

Wednesday, April 30

• U.S. ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (Forecast: 123K; Prior: 155K)

• Canada GDP m/m (Forecast: 0.4%; Prior: 0.4%)

• U.S. Advance GDP q/q (Forecast: 0.4%; Prior: 2.4%)

• U.S. Employment Cost Index q/q (Forecast: 0.9%; Prior: 0.9%)

• 7:00am: U.S. Core PCE Price Index m/m (Forecast: 0.1%; Prior: 0.4%)

• Tentative: BOJ Policy Rate Decision (Expected: <0.50%)

• BOJ Monetary Policy Statement

• BOJ Outlook Report

• BOJ Press Conference

Thursday, May 1

• U.S. Unemployment Claims (Forecast: 224K; Prior: 222K)

• U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI (Forecast: 48.0; Prior: 49.0)

Friday, May 2

• U.S. Average Hourly Earnings m/m (Forecast: 0.3%; Prior: 0.3%)

• U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (Forecast: 129K; Prior: 228K)

• U.S. Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 4.2%; Prior: 4.2%)

• All day: Australia Parliamentary Elections

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.