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Feds Semi-annual survey: Risks to global trade are the most frequently cited risk

  • 🔴 Risks to global trade are the most frequently cited risk to the U.S. financial system, according to new Federal Reserve survey

  • 🔴 Fed says growing stablecoin sector remains subject to run risks

  • 🔴 Fed says bank funding vulnerabilities in line with historical norms

  • 🔴 Fed says funding markets were resilient through early April’s market volatility

  • 🔴 Global trade risks, fiscal debt sustainability, and policy uncertainty top concerns of Fed survey respondents

  • 🔴 Fed survey respondents also cite foreign divestment from U.S. assets, value of U.S. dollar, as other new potential shocks

  • 🔴 Fed survey: Some respondents say ‘incremental tariffs’ may only cause modest disruption

  • 🔴 Fed in latest Financial Stability Report says prices remain high relative to fundamentals even after April market turmoil

  • 🔴 Fed says liquidity in Treasury and equity markets was low and worsened further in April, though market functioning remained orderly

  • 🔴 Fed says Treasury markets continued to see orderly trading, markets continued to function amid recent volatility

  • 🔴 Fed says commercial real estate prices showed some signs of stabilizing

  • 🔴 Fed says banking system remained sound and resilient, but hedge fund leverage rose to historical highs, concentrated among largest funds

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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Trump says he think Ukraine ready to concede Crimea to Putin (contradicting Zelensky)

Trump was asked by a reporter a question on whether he thought Ukrainian leader Zelensky was ready to “give up” the Crimea territory that Russia occupied in 2014:

  • Trump responded

    “Oh, I think so”

This would be a direct contradiction to the Ukrainian leader’s previous statements on the peninsula annexed by Russia.

Earlier from Trump:

Take Trump’s answer on Crimea with a grain of salt. But, if he is correct then it brings an end to the war closer in sight.

Forbes is one of the outlets reporting it, passing along a piece from AFP (Agence France Presse).

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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US Ag sec says talking to 100 countries every day on trade, including China

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins spoke in a TV interview over the weekend:

  • CNN’s “State of the Union”
  • administration is having daily conversations with China over tariffs
  • there were ongoing talks between the US and China
  • trade deals with other nations were “very close”
  • “Every day we are in conversation with China, along with those other 99, 100 countries that have come to the table”

Bessent wasn;t so upbeat in his media comments:

So I guess the brown-nose award goes to Rollins. I don’t think her comments pass the sniff test.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

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ECB policymakers warm up to a June cut — sources report

Reuters ECB sources report that a consensus is building for a June rate cut. At the moment the market is pricing in 71% chance of a cut but it looks like the ECB wants to bump that up, given that this report cites six sources.

The report notes that data has been deteriorating but also notes that the euro has strengthened and oil prices have declined.

It also notes that “policymakers saw no reason to consider a 50 basis point cut”.

I would expect this report to put some light pressure on the euro at the open, given that this is a strong signal.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

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