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There are some larger expiries for EUR/USD and USD/JPY on the board for today. However, they are sitting quite a distance away from the prevailing spot levels. As such, they aren’t going to factor into play unless we get some headlines to jolt price action into life in the session ahead.

For now, the overall risk mood is more tentative with a lack of meaningful trade developments over the weekend. US futures are lower but the dollar is looking more muted against the major currencies space. There’s also month-end approaching, so that will also be a consideration for flows in the next few days. I’ll put up a separate post on that in a bit later.

Anyway, the expiries above aren’t going to feature much once again given the levels in play. In any case, traders are also keenly eyeing US-China trade relations and tariff headlines still in the new week. And those are the more important drivers at the moment.

For more information on how to use this data, you may refer to this post here.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• ICYMI – Bezos-backed start-up launches EV truck for less than $US20,000. Tesla killer?
• AUD traders note – RBA Assistant Governor (Financial Markets) Kent speaking tomorrow
• China’s vice commerce minister (more): Exports steady in April, will expand imports
• PBOC deputy governor says will cut RRR, interest rates, at an appropriate time
• China Gold Association reports gold consumption fell in Q1
• China’s news conference on boosting the economy and jobs has begun
• China’s State Council approved 10 new nuclear reactors over the weekend
• Toyota says it was exploring a potential investment in the key parts supplier – buyout
• More on Japan’s top currency official denying Bessent supports a stronger yen
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.2043 (vs. estimate at 7.2828)
• China Securities Daily says PBoC is seen cutting the RRR and interest rates in Q2
• Yen traders note – Japan is on holiday Tuesday
• Mr Yen says Completely untrue about media report that Bessent said stronger yen preferable
• Bank of Japan to “hit pause” on rate hikes at this week’s meeting – Trump tariffs cited
• More on the the Financial Times Trump Slump for US transport firms
• UK Times says “Trump’s tariffs are set to drive down UK economic growth”, circa 50% cut
• Weekend data: China’s YTD industrial profits rose 0.8% y/y in Q1 (prior -0.3%)
• Trump says he think Ukraine ready to concede Crimea to Putin (contradicting Zelensky)
• US Ag sec says talking to 100 countries every day on trade, including China
• Trump says ‘confines of a deal’ are there on Ukraine / Russia
• US equity index futures are set to open for the week’s trade at the top of the hour
• U.S. Treas Sec Bessent didn’t back Trump assertion that China tariff talks were under way
• Heads up for a China news conference today – to address promoting growth, employment
• Financial Times on “Demand slump fuelled by Trump tariffs hits US ports and air freight”
• ECB’s Kazaks urges caution on further European Central Bank rate cuts
• ECB’s Simkus says the Bank could lower interest rates at least two more times this year
• Trade ideas thread – Monday, 28 April, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
• Monday morning open levels – indicative forex prices – 28 April 2025

Weekend:

• Walmart has notified Chinese suppliers to resume shipping goods – report
• ECB policymakers warm up to a June cut — sources report
• Canada votes on Monday: What the polls are saying and what’s at stake for the loonie

We
have had some market swings during the session here to open the new
week, but not to the extent that we have become accustomed to.

USD/JPY
traded above 143.85 (plenty of talk of offers gathering ahead of 144
seemed accurate today) and to lows under 143.40. Japan’s top
currency official, vice finance minister Atsushi Mimura, put in a
good deal of effort into denying that US
Treasury Secretary Bessent supported
a strong yen.

EUR,
AUD, NZD, GBP all traded in ranges and as I update are little net
changed on the day.

USD/CAD
is a little higher as we head into Monday’s Canadian election where
polls indicate a comeback win for Carney’s party. Let’s see if
the polls get it correct.

From
China we had a news conference from the National Development and Reform
Commission (China’s ‘state planner’), the Ministry of Human Resources
and Social Security, the Ministry of Commerce, and the People’s
Bank of China. It outlined further measures to prompt economic growth
and employment. As is usually the case nitty gritty details were not
discussed.

Separately,
China announced that domestic
gold production grew
1.5% YoY in Q1, while
gold
consumption slumped
nearly 6%.

Most
notable from the weekend, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spoke
with US media on Sunday. Bessent said that while he spoke with his
Chinese counterparts last week during International Monetary Fund
meetings in Washington, tariffs were not mentioned! More
significantly, Bessent refused to back up Trump’s assertion that
Trump had spoken with China’s President Xi:

• “I
  don’t know if President Trump has spoken with President Xi”

Yikes
… lets see how Trumpo responds to being thrown under the bus by
Bessent!

US
equity index futures have traded a little lower in Sunday evening (US
time) trade, barely denting their big surge on Friday though.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

ICYMI, an EV pick up launched by Slate Auto, a firm backed in part by Amazon founder Jeff Bezos:

• starting price point US$20,000 after federal EV incentives
• made in the USA
• two-door version can be changed into a 5-seat SUV
• base model is about two-thirds the size of a Chevy Silverado EV and just a little smaller than the size of a Ford Maverick
• payload capacity of 1,400 pounds compared the Maverick’s 1500 pounds
• maximum range of 150 miles on a single charge
• option for a longer-range battery pack that could offer up to 240 miles
• delivery to customers expected late 2026

Info via NBC.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

China’s Vice Commerce Minister Sheng Qiuping said on Monday that the government “will accelerate reform to integrate domestic and foreign trade.”

Coming up on Tuesday, April 29, 2025, at 12.05pm Sydney time:

• 0205 GMT
• 2205 US Eastern time on Monday, April 28, 2025

Keynote speech by Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor (Financial Markets)

• Topic is “Australia’s External Position and the Evolution of the FX Markets”
• speaking at Bloomberg, Sydney

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) is extending loses for the second successive session on Monday. The AUD/USD pair is under pressure as the US Dollar (USD) strengthens amid signs of easing tensions between the US and China.

Silver price (XAG/USD) continues to lose ground for the second straight day, hovering around $32.80 per troy during Asian trading hours on Monday. The precious metal faces pressure as improving trade relations between the United States (US) and China diminish its safe-haven appeal.

Chinese authorities press conference announce further measures to prompt economic growth and employment. Present are officials from the:

• National Development and Reform Commission (China’s ‘state planner’)
• Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security
• Ministry of Commerce
• People’s Bank of China

Earlier:

• China exports withstand pressure
• PBOC deputy governor says will cut RRR, interest rates, at an appropriate time

More now,
China Vice Commerce Minister Sheng:

• China to accelerate reform to integrate domestic, foreign trade
• to assist companies in broadening overseas market
• to enhance trade financing assistance for exporters
• to establish credit tool for large equipment export
• to keep expanding imports, open up

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

UK Times, and other media outlets, with the latest from EY Item Club, which is sponsored by the big four accountancy firm EY,

EY’s forecast:

• now expects UK gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 0.8% in 2025, down from their projection of 1% in February
• cut its 2026 forecast from 1.6% to 0.9%, citing longer-term effects hitting the UK

EY cite:

• Roughly 16% of UK goods exports are sent to the US, meaning the “baseline” US import tariffs — 10% for most products and 25% for cars, steel, and aluminium — will hurt UK growth by reducing demand for British goods.

• A larger blow to growth will likely stem from the indirect effects of the new tariffs, which could make British consumers even more hesitant to spend on major purchases.

• Businesses are also expected to scale back investment over the next two years in response to the more challenging environment.

EY cite UK firms preparing for potential supply chain disruption from tariffs by targeting new export markets in Asia, Africa and Australia.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.