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Fundamental
Overview

The USD has been weakening
across the board since Tuesday when some comments from USTR Greer suggested
that de-escalation was still the base case. The fall in Treasury yields has
also been a bearish driver for the greenback as the dovish interest rate
expectations increased.

Domestically, nothing has
changed for the US dollar as the US government shutdown continues to delay many
key US economic reports. The dollar “repricing trade” needs strong US data to
keep going, especially on the labour market side, so any hiccup on that front
is likely to keep weighing on the greenback.

The BLS announced last week
that despite the shutdown, it will release the US CPI report on October 24, so
that’s going to be a key risk event. That will need to be seen in the context
of US-China relations at that time though. If things go south on that front,
then the CPI will not matter much as growth fears will trump everything else.

On the NZD side, the RBNZ cut
by 50 bps at the last meeting bringing the OCR to 2.5%, which is the lower
bound of their estimated neutral range (2.5%-3.5%). They kept an easing bias
though as they are trying to “feel their way” as RBNZ’s Conway recently said.

On Sunday, we have the New
Zealand Q3 inflation report and that’s going to be important for them as an
upside surprise could give them a reason to skip the November cut. The market
is pricing a 92% probability of a 25 bps cut at the November meeting with a
total of 39 bps of easing expected by the end of 2026.

NZDUSD
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that the NZDUSD pulled all the way back into a strong resistance zone
around the 0.5760 level where we can also find the downward trendline for
confluence. The sellers are likely to step in around these levels with a defined
risk above the resistance to position for a drop into the 0.56 handle. The buyers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally
into the 0.5850 resistance next.

NZDUSD Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see more clearly the resistance zone around the 0.5760 level and the rejection
as the sellers started to step in. There’s not much else we can add here as the
sellers will continue to pile in around these levels, while the buyers will
look for a break higher to extend the pullback into the 0.5850 resistance next.

NZDUSD Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have an upward trendline defining the current pullback. If the price
falls into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined
risk below it to position for a break above the resistance zone. The sellers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the
bearish bets into the 0.56 handle next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming Catalysts

We don’t have
anything on the data front for the rest of the week with the focus remaining
solely on US-China headlines. Note that the New Zealand Q3 inflation report
will be released on Sunday at 21:45 GMT.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

The Indian Rupee (INR) struggles to extend its Wednesday’s strong recovery move against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday.

The US Dollar bounced up from two-week lows near 0.7930 against the Swiss Franc earlier on Thursday, although upside attempts remain limited below the 0.7975-0.7980 area, as the escalating tensions between the US and China keep weighing on the US Dollar.US President Trump added fuel to the fire in a

Republican and Democrat senators continued to back opposing bills ahead of vote on stopgap funding that would reopen the U.S. government.

Paxos, the blockchain partner of PayPal, mistakenly minted $300 trillion of the online payment giant’s stablecoin on Wednesday in what the company called a “technical error.” 

French Prime Minister (PM) Sébastien Lecornu survives his first no-confidence vote. Out of 560 lawmakers, 271 lawmakers voted against government while 289 were needed.

Ethereum Futures Market Context and Directional Bias

Ethereum futures are trading near 3,972. According to today’s tradeCompass, traders should watch the 3,866 to 3,876 range very closely. A dip to 3,866 followed by a move back above 3,876 would confirm a bullish activation. If this reclaim happens, the bias turns bullish and traders can look for long opportunities.
If price fails to hold above 3,876, the market remains neutral or range-bound for now. The bearish scenario becomes active only if price falls below 3,800, which is relatively far from the current market and would require patience.

Ethereum Futures Key Levels and Partial Profit Plan for Today

Bullish Threshold: Activation if price dips to 3,866 and reclaims 3,876
Bearish Threshold: Activation only below 3,800

Partial Profit Targets:

• 3,925: First partial exit (20 percent) at nearby liquidity area

• 3,947.5: Second partial exit near local high-volume node

• 4,038.5: Third partial target at a round number magnet

• 4,118: Fourth target just under the Value Area High of October 15

• 4,355.5: Final target below the Point of Control from October 9

If price instead turns bearish and moves below 3,800, first support and partial profit zone is 3,807, while the deeper swing target sits at 3,555.

Ethereum Analysis Background

In recent sessions, ETH price has consolidated in a tight range, creating a potential springboard for a directional move. A reclaim of the 3,876 level would likely confirm that buyers absorbed short-term pressure and are ready to push toward higher resistance levels mapped by tradeCompass.

Educational Section: Understanding the Reclaim Strategy

The reclaim strategy helps traders avoid premature entries. It waits for price to test and then recover a key level. In this Ethereum example, the 3,866 test and reclaim of 3,876 confirms genuine buyer strength before committing to a long position. This method filters false breaks and improves risk control.

Trade Management Rules under tradeCompass

• Take one trade per direction per setup.

• After reaching TP1 of, by default, TP2, move the stop to entry to protect remaining positions.

• Place your stop just beyond your activation side with a small buffer.

• Never set a stop beyond the opposite threshold.

• Confirmation by reclaim or retest is valid; for today’s ETH setup, the reclaim confirmation is preferred.

How to Use the tradeCompass Map for Ethereum

TradeCompass provides a map, not a forecast. If Ethereum price hovers near a bullish line but fails to hold above it, traders can use that weakness for short setups back to the range. If the price breaks and sustains below the bearish threshold, the move signals a deeper bearish stage. Partial profit-taking on both sides helps secure progress while managing risk.

Risk Disclaimer for Crypto Traders

This analysis is a decision support tool, not investment advice. Trading involves risk and potential loss of capital. Always conduct your own research and use appropriate position sizing.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) gains against its major peers on Thursday after the release of the United Kingdom (UK) monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and factory data for August.

There were 271 lawmakers who voted against the government in this round, just below the threshold of 289 votes needed to oust Lecornu and his lackeys.

For some context, Lecornu won the crucial support of the Socialist Party in the National Assembly earlier this week after promising to suspend president Macron’s unpopular pension reform. And that is what’s keeping his odds of staying alive here.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.