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The Nasdaq index is trading at new session lows, down around 200 points or -1.14% at 17,183.96. Earlier in the day, the index reached a high of 17,467.35, coming within about 27 points of the key 50% midpoint of the move from the December 16 all-time high to the April 7 low. That midpoint level sits at 17,494.31. A sustained move above the midpoint would be needed to strengthen bullish momentum, but buyers failed to break through on their first attempt today.
Despite the pullback, buyers are still in play and arguably maintain a technical advantage after last Thursday’s move above the 200-hour moving average, currently at 16,957.54. That was the first break above the 200-hour MA since February 21, when the index fell below it at 19,641.07 — a move that ultimately led to a near 25% decline. Holding above the 200-hour MA remains an important line in the sand for buyers. A move below would shift the buyers back in favor of the sellers.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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The Nasdaq opened at the best levels since Liberation Day today but that’s been followed by a decent reversal with the index now down 1.0%.
The question for investors right now is whether it’s best to bail after a return to pre-tariff levels or whether a new bull market has started?
I don’t think the bulls can maintain the upper hand until we get an answer to this question: What are the tariffs for?
The latter case is the one you hope for as it would ultimately result in a world with lower tariffs and that would benefit US corporations, particularly the large multinationals that dominate the index.
But if the goal is to raise revenue, then it argues that tariffs are permanent and in that case, we will end up in a place where other countries raise tariffs in retaliation or at the very least, there is less policy certainty.
On the weekend, Trump again pointed to the revenue side.
That’s worrisome but the real answer will come when we finally get a fresh US trade deal, something Bessent said could happen in the next week or two.
If that results in lowering tariffs on both sides, and the US drops its own tariffs down to 0% (rather than a 10% floor), I think the bull market continues. But if we get a 10% floor, I just can’t see the US making many deals.
Japan Economy Minister Akazawa today said “there is no change to our stance” and they are demanding full removal of US tariffs.
This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.
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The EURUSD pushed above the 100-hour moving average at 1.1370, a level that had previously stalled rallies twice earlier in the day. After breaking higher, the pair extended gains through the 200-hour moving average at 1.1397 (green line), reaching a high of 1.1413. However, momentum faded, and the price has since rotated back below the 200-hour moving average, currently trading around 1.1392.
This retreat could be a warning sign for buyers. That said, as long as the price holds above the 100-hour moving average, the door remains open for upside momentum to continue. However, a move back below the 100-hour MA would weaken the bullish bias, and likely lead to disappointment on the failed break.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.
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