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German Gfk consumer sentiment rises to -20.6, domestic political stability offsets trade concerns

Germany’s GfK Consumer Sentiment Index for May rose from -24.3 to -20.6 and outperforming expectations for a decline to -26.0. In April, key underlying indicators also showed encouraging signs. Income expectations rose sharply for a second straight month, climbing 7.4 points to 4.3, their highest level since October 2024. Economic expectations increased modestly for a […]

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ECB’s Cipollone: Trade policy uncertainty could reduce business investment

  • Potential for sudden stops in capital flows, payment disruption and volatility in currency markets requires robust contingency planning.
  • There are further signs that geopolitical considerations increasingly influence decisions to invest in gold.
  • Recent increase in trade policy uncertainty could reduce Euro Area business investment by 1.1% in the first year and real GDP growth by around 0.2% in 2025-2026.
  • The observed increase in financial market volatility might imply lower GDP growth of about 0.2% in 2025.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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Forexlive European FX news wrap: Markets await Bessent and Lutnick

It’s been a pretty quiet session with no notable data or news releases. The Spanish Flash CPI was higher than expected but that won’t change ECB’s plan of cutting rates in June unless we get resolutions on the tariffs front.

The Chinese continue to repeat that they are open for dialogue but it’s pretty clear that they won’t be the first to engage in negotiations. The ECB consumer survey showed that inflation expectations have risen, while growth remained unchanged. Classic stagflationary shock due to tariffs.

We got some positive comments from the Indian Government on the trade talks although it didn’t look like there’s something concrete yet. Nonetheless, the markets will likely be fine with some details like the tariffs rate and so on, so everyone is watching out for that.

In the American session, we have the US Job Openings data and the US Consumer Confidence report. The focus though, will be on US Treasury Secretary Bessent joining the White House Briefing at 08:30 ET/12:30 GMT, and later in the day on the US Secretary of Commerce Lutnick speaking on CNBC at 18:00 GMT/14:00 ET.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

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