The USD is ending the US session, the way it started the session – with the USD lower. The biggest mover was the GBPUSD with a rise of 0.52%. The dollar fell -0.37% vs the JPY, -0.46% vs the CHF and -0.31% vs the AUD. The USD was modestly higher vs the CAD (by 0.05%).
The dollar decline was additional follow through selling after the decline yesterday on the back of Fed Chair Powell focusing on potential weakness on employment and that the Fed may look to stop the balance sheet run off (dovish). The market expects a November and December cut.
Treasury Secretary Bessent emphasized that the U.S. wants to help China, not hurt it, but warned that China’s own economic coercion will ultimately damage its economy the most. He said there will be multiple meetings this week on China’s new trade restrictions and highlighted that if China continues to act as an unreliable global partner, the U.S. may have to decouple, though he reiterated that Washington prefers to de-risk, not decouple.
Bessent criticized China’s purchases of Russian oil, arguing they fuel Russia’s war effort in Ukraine, and called for European allies to align with U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods tied to Russian energy. He noted substantial U.S.–China communications in recent days, with President Trump still planning to meet President Xi in South Korea. Bessent framed tariffs as surcharges, not taxes, saying they can be borne by either exporter or importer, and justified the administration’s emergency powers as essential to protect the U.S. economy amid Chinese provocations.
He added that the U.S. offered to lift fentanyl-related tariffs under the IEEPA if China resolves the fentanyl issue for six months, but cautioned that Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs on U.S. soybeans remain in place until Washington acts first. Overall, Bessent’s remarks reflected a firm but conditional approach — maintaining economic pressure on China while signaling a path toward de-escalation if progress is made on key issues like fentanyl and trade discipline.
Fed, Fed’s Miran (recent Trump nominee and dove) struck a distinctly dovish tone (not surprising), saying that two more rate cuts this year “sound realistic” and are already fully priced in by markets. He noted that recent developments — including the government shutdown and renewed U.S.–China tensions — have made rate cuts more urgent, as these shocks pose new downside risks to the economy.
Miran argued that current Fed policy is more restrictive than it appears, since the neutral rate has fallen amid shifts from immigration, AI investment, and other structural changes. While AI could eventually raise the neutral rate, he said for now, policy is tighter than many assume. He also emphasized that his disagreement with colleagues is about the pace of easing, not the ultimate destination for rates.
On inflation, Miran expressed confidence that price pressures are easing, especially in housing, and said he places less emphasis on gradual policy adjustments.
The Federal Reserve’s latest Beige Book reported that overall U.S. economic activity was little changed in recent weeks, with most districts describing growth as modest or flat and some noting early signs of softening demand. Employment remained stable, though several districts highlighted increasing layoffs and hiring freezes, particularly in industries facing weaker demand or elevated uncertainty. Labor supply remains tight in sectors such as hospitality, agriculture, construction, and manufacturing, partly reflecting shifts in immigration policy. Inflation pressures persist, fueled by higher input costs and new tariffs, though the degree of price pass-through to consumers varies by region. With official inflation data delayed by the government shutdown, policymakers are relying more heavily on these anecdotal insights to gauge the economy’s underlying momentum.
Crude oil is lower again with the low price reaching $58.20. Adam Button in a post wrote that world oil demand has reached record highs, yet prices remain subdued, with crude down with the price down 18% lower year-to-date, far from the $130 levels seen in 2022.
The main drag? OPEC+ continuing to add supply, which has kept the market oversupplied.
Still, as Adam Button notes, the “cure for low prices is low prices,” since depressed prices discourage new drilling and investment, eventually tightening supply. Demand is expected to grow by another 1 million barrels per day in 2026, which could gradually restore balance—though whether that occurs in 2026 or 2027 remains uncertain. CLICK here to read the full story.
Meanwhile, gold and silver continued their runs to the upside. Gold is up by $63 or 1.54% at $4206 and silver is up 1.62 or 3.14% at $53.07 on the day. Both are on pace for record closing levels for the day.
Bitcoin buyers are NOT as relentless. Since tradin to a new record high price at $126,272, the price has the hundred 10,000 915,000 over the last 6 trading days. The current price is trading near the low of the range at $111,343 down $-1734 or -1.53%
US broader stock indices traded up and down and is closing in the middle The Dow was not as fortunate as it gave back some of the gains from yesterday when it was the one indice that moved higher.
The final numbers shows:
In the US debt market, the yields are modestly higher:
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock:
Cautious comments from Bullock on her outlook. Expectations for a cash rate cut from the RBA at its next meeting, November 3 and 4, are not high.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
it was a funny day in the stock market today as a very strong start saw the S&P 500 up 1% but it was completely erased by the European close. It could have been European selling or it could have been trade war fears after a WSJ report suggesting China will call Trump’s bluff. The thing is, that report was out before the stock market open so it could have been something else or the market could have been slow to pick up on it.
In any case, after falling to a 0.4% decline, the stock market dip buyers arrived and there was a solid finish. The Russell 2000 in particular led again as it hit a new record in part due to strong numbers from financials so far in earnings season.
The daily SPX kinda looks like a failure to retake the pre-fight highs.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
The NZDUSD has been choppy today, swinging between gains and losses. During the European and early U.S. sessions, the pair’s advance stalled near its falling 100-hour moving average, which currently sits around 0.5726 — a key pivot for traders heading into the new day.
As long as price action remains below 0.5726, the downside bias stays intact. A sustained move above that level, however, could trigger short covering, with the 200-hour moving average at 0.5764 becoming the next upside target. A break above the 200-hour MA would shift the bias more decisively in favor of buyers.
In short, watch the 100-hour MA — it’s the technical battleground likely to define the next directional move. The video above outlines the key levels in more detail.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
World oil demand is at record highs but you wouldn’t know it from the price of oil, which is down another 20-cents to $58.50 today. Many global assets are at records but crude is down 18% and a far cry from the $130 days of 2022.
The main drag has been OPEC+ relentlessly adding barrels to the market.
The cure for low prices is low prices though and that’s going to curb investment in new wells in the year ahead. Demand should also rise by another 1 mbpd next year and that should slowly balance the market. Whether that comes in 2026 or 2027 is the tougher question to answer.
What makes it so compelling is that there are a wide range of ideas about what’s happening in the market. As it stands, there are forecasts from the IAE of a surplus of 4 million barrels per day next year. That’s a massive glut. But then you have Conoco’s CEO saying this:
“We don’t see floating inventories rising, we don’t see a lot more medium-sour crude coming into the US Gulf Coast, which typically happens if there’s a lot of spare capacity,”
“
“You look at the physical market, you don’t see that
playing itself out,” he said. “So there could be a collision
coming.”
“We’re all watching some of those kinds of signals
wondering: when is the bearishness going to kick in?”
“Is there going to be a big flood of supply — which we frankly don’t see? A lot of the OPEC+ increases were paper barrels, they were already in the market.”
That would be typical of OPEC, which is always bluffing and playing games but the cost of being wrong probably outweighs the cost of being right so it’s tough to buy crude at $58 right now.
But everyone is seeing this glut, so why aren’t prices lower?
Over at Exxon, you have the top people saying they’re bullish ‘medium term’ which implies that they’re bearish in the short term.
In the bullish scenario, the OPEC barrels really are paper barrels and there is no spare capacity. That would rapidly and massively tighten the crude market. Alternatively, the glut could be months away and when crude falls into the $40s next year, drilling will stop until prices rise again.
In all these scenarios, there is some real volatility (and opportunity) to come, but right now the future is foggy. For me, I lean bearish at the moment as I can’t believe that OPEC has pulled off one of the biggest bluffs of all time.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
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