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Fundamental Overview

The USD has been weakening
across the board since Tuesday when some comments from USTR Greer suggested that
de-escalation was still the base case. The fall in Treasury yields has also
been a bearish driver for the greenback as the dovish interest rate expectations
increased.

Domestically, nothing has
changed for the US dollar as the US government shutdown continues to delay many
key US economic reports. The dollar “repricing trade” needs strong US data to
keep going, especially on the labour market side, so any hiccup on that front
is likely to keep weighing on the greenback.

The BLS announced last week
that despite the shutdown, it will release the US CPI report on October 24, so
that’s going to be a key risk event. That will need to be seen in the context
of US-China relations at that time though. If things go south on that front,
then the CPI will not matter much as growth fears will trump everything else.

On the JPY side, the
currency strengthened last Friday following the risk-off sentiment triggered by
the US-China escalation. Domestically, Takaichi is having some trouble securing
enough votes to become the next Prime Minister after the loss of Komeito
support. This has also been a minor driver of yen strength. On the monetary
policy side, nothing has changed. Traders are assigning just a 22% probability
of a rate hike at the October meeting given the political uncertainty and 41%
chance of a rate hike by year-end.

USDJPY
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that USDJPY probed below the major support zone around the 151.00 handle
but it’s now coming back above it. This is where we can expect the buyers to
step in with a defined risk below the recent low to position for a rally into
the 154.80 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling
back below the support to pile in for a drop into the 148.50 support next.

USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. If we get
a pullback into it, we can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a
defined risk above it to position for a drop into the 148.50 support. The
buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to
increase the bullish bets into the 154.80 level next.

USDJPY Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that we have another minor downward trendline that could act as resistance.
The sellers will likely lean on it to keep pushing into new lows, while the
buyers will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the next
trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.

Upcoming
Catalysts

We don’t have
anything on the data front for the rest of the week with the focus remaining
solely on US-China headlines.

Watch the video below

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Here is what you need to know on Thursday, October 16:

The AI boom has resulted in “unbelievable, crazy valuations,” Clegg said.

This former penny stock is up 78% this week and 322% YTD.

• Eurostoxx flat
• Germany DAX -0.1%
• France CAC 40 flat
• UK FTSE flat
• Spain IBEX -0.1%
• Italy FTSE MIB +0.2%

It’s a slow start to proceedings with it being more of a mixed week for European indices in general. French stocks are the outperformers after the gains yesterday while the DAX is cooling from the highs still, taking a bit of a breather. US futures are helping to keep the broader market mood in a better spot at least. S&P 500 futures are up 0.2% with Nasdaq futures seen up 0.4% currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

US Treasury secretary Bessent yesterday said that a meeting between Trump and Xi in South Korea remains “on track”. And so, we’re seeing the US camp confirm Trump’s attendance here. The timing is interesting though as China has yet to officially confirm Xi Jinping’s visit but media sources and the Korean camp is saying that Xi is “virtually confirmed” to at least attend the APEC Summit.

The thing is though, the APEC Summit dates are on 31 October to 1 November in Gyeongju. While the specific details are yet to be confirmed, reports are saying that Trump will arrive early and then make a visit to Gyeongju as well. So, now the ball is over to China’s court.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) declines against the US Dollar (USD) on Thursday, retracing its recent gains from the previous session. The AUD/USD pair loses ground as the AUD struggles following the release of Australia’s employment data.

Summary Box

Bullish above: 6740
Bearish below: 6730
Primary Bias: Bearish while trading under 6730
Partial Targets: 6721 → 6716 → 6705 → 6685

Market Context and Directional Bias

The S&P 500 E-mini hovers just beneath resistance between 6728 and 6735. According to tradeCompass, the bearish threshold sits at 6730, meaning sellers remain in control unless price reclaims 6740. A sustained drop below 6730 could accelerate toward lower value zones, while a close above 6740 would shift focus back to the 6750–6760 range.

At this stage, bears hold the advantage. The structure favors short opportunities beneath resistance, but as always, activation depends on price behavior relative to these thresholds.

Today’s Key Levels and Partial-Profit Plan

Bearish Scenario (active below 6730)
6721 – Initial short target near the October 14 Value Area High.
6716 – Next support zone and liquidity pocket from recent sessions.
6705 – A structural magnet tied to intraday balance.
6 685 – The October 12 VWAP region and likely major test for bears.

Bullish Scenario (if price sustains above 6740)
6744 – Yesterday’s Value Area High and first resistance.
6747 – Aligned with the October 7 Value Area Low.
6753 – Short-term breakout extension.
6764 – Upper VWAP deviation and the final bullish objective.

The risk-to-reward profile is stronger for shorts at present, but tradeCompass remains flexible to both outcomes based on which threshold is triggered.

Background: What’s Driving the S&P 500 Today

European equities opened firm with Euro Stoxx futures up 0.2 percent as traders assess mixed global sentiment. Earlier this week, strong Q3 results from BofA and Morgan Stanley helped stabilize the broader market. Still, our recent Nasdaq analysis highlighted the risk of exhaustion near key resistance, which now extends to the S&P 500. Risk appetite also softened after Japan’s move to ban crypto insider trading, a reminder that global regulatory tightening can ripple through all risk assets.

Educational Corner: Understanding VWAP and the Value Area

VWAP—the Volume Weighted Average Price—is a crucial benchmark for institutional traders. It shows the average execution level for the day and serves as a dynamic magnet for price. Hedge funds and market-making algorithms often buy below VWAP and sell above it in range conditions, or use its standard deviations to gauge trend extensions.

The Value Area, which contains roughly 70 percent of traded volume, highlights where fair value was established. When price trades below both the Value Area High (VAH) and VWAP, it signals selling pressure and often continuation toward deeper supports.

Trade Management Reminders (tradeCompass)

Only one trade per direction.
After TP2 is hit, move your stop to entry to secure the position.
Stops should sit just beyond the activation side with a small buffer but never beyond the opposite threshold.
Confirmation can be price-based (two closes) or time-based depending on your approach.

Clarification on Using the Compass

If the market fails to sustain above the bullish threshold, it often signals a potential short setup. Conversely, consistent trading below the bearish threshold points to a deeper downside phase. Always use partial profit-taking and protect capital by managing stops as price progresses.

Professional Disclaimer

This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. Trading futures and CFDs involves substantial risk, and you should trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.

Nestle said Thursday it will cut 16,000 jobs as the firm’s new CEO Philipp Navratil looks to accelerate a turnaround at the consumer goods giant.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $58.40 during the early European trading hours on Thursday. The WTI recovers from a five-month low after US President Donald Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had vowed to halt purchases of Russian barrels.