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Canada Industrial Product Price (MoM): 0.8% (September) vs 0.5%

• Prior was 4.0% y/y (revised to 3.7%)
• Prices +0.8% m/m vs +0.5% prior (revised to +0.2%)
• Raw materials price index +8.4% y/y vs +3.2% prior (revised to 3.0%)
• Raw materials price index +1.7% m/m vs -0.6% prior (revised to -0.8%)

I think we might be deluding ourselves about inflation risks, given that these hot numbers have come at a time of plunging oil prices.

This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

The USD is little changed to start the new trading week with the EURUSD unchanged, the USDJPY higher by 0.10% (higher USD) and the GBPUSD down -0.16% (higher USD as well).

Geopolitical concerns continue to drive the markets with the US shutdown now in day 20, US/China tension continuing to be a major economic concern, the Ukraine/Russia war continues with Ukrainian President Zelensky saying he doesn’t expect U.S. President Trump to escalate with Russia until after another meeting with Moscow and that he remains focused on maintaining U.S. support while preparing Ukraine to supply drones if Washington provides missiles. Meanwhile, President Trump reportedly told Zelensky he has no immediate plans to send missiles and urged Ukraine to consider Russian President Putin’s terms, warning that Russia might “destroy” Ukraine if it refused.

In Japan they are moving closer to a coalition government with LDP leader Takaichi and Innovation Party Yoshimura signing an agreement to form a coalition government.

In the video above I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs, the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD focusing in on what I see as the bias dominating the price action, the specific risks and target levels for each. Knowing the roadmap for your trade is the most important thing a trader can do to keep fear down, and traders in tune with the market.

The Fed is now in the blackout period until its FOMC rate decision a week from Wednesday (Oct 29). WIth most of the economic data on pause, the market will be grasping at any private data that may tell a picture about the US economy. Having said that, the US will publish the delayed CPI report on Friday as it impacts Social Security payments. It is expected to rise by 0.3%/0.4% for the month (not that great a number if it comes in as expected).

Also on tap this week is the US existing home sales on Thursday with a modest rise to 4.06M annualized sales pace from 4.0M last month. That is about it.

The US earnings calendar will continue with the following

Major Earnings Releases This Week

Tuesday

• BMO: Coca-Cola (KO), GE Aerospace (GE), Texas Instruments (TXN), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), 3M (MMM), PulteGroup (PHM), GM (GM), Northrop Grumman (NOC),

• AMC: Netflix (NFLX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Capital One (COF)

Wednesday

• BMO: GE Vernova (GEV), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Boston Scientific (BSX),AT&T (T), Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC), SAP (SAP), Alcoa (AA),

• AMC: Tesla (TSLA), IBM (IBM), Hilton (HLT), Lam Research (LRCX), T-Mobile (TMUS)

Thursday

• BMO: American Airlines (AAL), Honeywell (HON), Alaska Air Group (ALK), DOW (DOW)

• AMC: Intel (INTC), Newmont (NEM), Deckers Brands (DECK), Ford (F), Southwest Airlines (LUV)

Friday

• BMO: Procter & Gamble (PG), Gentex (GNTX),General Dynamics (GD), HCA Healthcare (HCA)

Looking at the markets today, the major US indices are higher:

• Dow +89 points
• S&P index +20.79 points
• NASDAQ index +106 points

in the US debt market, yields are marginally lower

• 2-year yield 3.463%, unchanged
• 5 year yield 3.588%, -0.4 basis points
• 10 year yield 4.001%, -0.8 point basis points
• 30 year yield 4.592%, -1.0 basis points

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges higher on Monday, recovering modestly after Friday’s steep decline from record highs near $4,380. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,280 during the European session, up over 0.50% on the day.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) underperforms a majority of its peers at the start of the week. The British currency faces pressure as investors turn cautious ahead of the United Kingdom (UK) Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for September, which will be released on Wednesday.

GDP growth eased to 4.8% yoy in Q3 but it would still put China’s economy on track to meet the 5% official target. Growth was mainly supported by strong exports as household consumption slowed and fixed investment faltered, Commerzbank’s economist Tommy Wu reports.

Markets remain broadly risk-off amid elevated valuations and persistent geopolitical risks, prompting asset allocators to reassess country and sector exposures for potential corrections, BNY’s FX analysts report.

Headlines:

• Japan’s LDP and Nippon Ishin parties formalise coalition agreement
• Japan’s Nippon Ishin co-head Fujita says will back Takaichi in tomorrow’s premiership vote
• EU trade commissioner Sefcovic says to meet with Chinese counterpart on Tuesday
• BoJ may slightly revise up economic growth forecast for 2025 at October policy meeting
• BOJ policymaker Takata: Japan has already roughly achieved BOJ’s price target
• Germany September PPI -0.1% vs 0.0% m/m expected
• SNB total sight deposits w.e. 17 October CHF 473.8 bn vs CHF 474.2 bn prior

Markets:

• USD leads, GBP lags on the day
• European equities mostly higher; S&P 500 futures up 0.3%
• US 10-year yields flat at 4.008%
• Gold up 0.3% to $4,262.96
• WTI crude oil down 1.0% to $56.66
• Bitcoin up 1.9% to $110,758

It was a rather dead session to start the new week as markets are picking up from where they left off last week. And amid the US government shutdown and now cautiously optimistic mood ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting next week, there’s not much to work with in general.

Major currencies are stuck in relatively narrow ranges on the day, with the dollar keeping steadier overall. There’s only some light extension to the daily ranges as traders don’t have much appetite to go running really.

USD/JPY was trading up to 151.20 early in Asia but is settling around 150.60-80 levels in Europe. Japan’s LDP and Nippon Ishin parties formalised their coalition agreement ahead of tomorrow’s premiership vote. That should see Takaichi take office as Japan’s first femal prime minister but much of that is already priced in before the weekend.

Besides that, there isn’t really anything interesting with the changes being light and nothing noteworthy whatsoever.

In the equities space, we’re seeing stocks post modest gains in Europe although the French benchmark index is failing to join the party as BNP Paribas shares are down over 8% after Sudan court ruling that could result in a costly settlement. But elsewhere, regional indices are posting solid gains with US futures also sitting a little higher on the day.

In other markets, bonds are not up to much amid a rather tepid mood while precious metals are also observing light changes as compared to the volatile swings we’ve been accustomed to in the past weeks. Gold and silver are both sitting a little higher on the day, keeping in check after the Friday drop.

With the US government shutdown still persisting, we can only watch and wait for US-China headlines at most to hopefully keep things interesting. Otherwise, it’s a long wait until the Fed this month-end and with the spotlight also turning to the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.