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The rate decision is going to be rather straightforward, with the ECB set to cut key policy rates by 25 bps today. So, is there anything else to watch out for as the central bank delivers the same decision for a sixth consecutive time? Let’s take a look.

The thing that will be scrutinised heavily from the statement today will of course be this part. The ECB in March tweaked their language on restrictiveness in saying that “monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive”. The previous statement before that said “monetary
policy remains restrictive”.

So, are they about to change that up again in April amid the mixture of risks from US tariffs?

That’s the key thing to look out for in the statement, in seeing if the ECB has the appetite to switch so hastily to a more neutral stance.

But even so, don’t expect that to change the bigger picture outlook for the central bank though. Amid downside risks to the economy, they are still expected to deliver more rate cuts down the road. The question though is by how much more?

The issue here is that all of this hinges on how Trump’s tariffs are going to play out in the weeks/months ahead. And even if not directly regarding trade with the EU, even US-China relations will have a spillover impact. So, that needs to be considered as well.

In that lieu, the main takeaway is that the ECB will surely continue their meeting-by-meeting approach. And that’s basically the more important thing right now.

As such, even with the removal of the phrase “monetary policy is becoming meaningfully less restrictive” it doesn’t mean a material change to the ECB’s next steps. They still have to take things one meeting at a time considering what’s at stake.

In essence, the ECB will not offer much of any forward guidance and stick to a more flexible i.e. data-dependent and meeting-by-meeting approach.

Besides that, the only other thing today will be to watch out for Lagarde’s press conference. I wouldn’t expect too much though as I would wager that Lagarde is going to place a lot of emphasis on this one word: uncertainty. She will likely stress a great deal on that and avoid committing to anything.

No doubt she will be questioned as well on any removal of the above phrase as she said before this that:

“It’s not just, you know, an innocuous little change, it’s a change that has a certain meaning. We are now moving by having our monetary policy is
becoming meaningfully less restrictive to a more evolutionary approach.”

So, to move on from that so quickly will definitely invite some jabs from the press. But at this stage, she can easily dodge that by pointing to Trump’s tariffs and the uncertain nature of its impact on the euro area economy and inflation.

There’s a slight chance that markets could take all of this to mean a more hawkish stance. But if Lagarde plays her cards right, markets will be left waiting on trade developments in the aftermath – the same as before.

This article was written by Justin Low at www.forexlive.com.

• Putin had a long conversation with Trump’s envoy Witkoff about Ukraine.
• Now the United States is continuing with Europeans and Ukrainians.
• Unfortunately, so far we only see the Europeans focusing on a continuation of the war.

More from the Russian Foreign Ministry:

• Ukraine continues to break on a daily basis the moratorium on energy strikes.
• Ukraine has struck Russian energy infrastructure more than 80 times since agreeing to the moratorium.
• We have passed this data on Ukrainian energy strikes to the Americans.

Today there is a meeting in Paris during which the US Secretary of State Rubio and special envoy Witkoff will meet President Macron and other European officials to negotiate a peace deal. Ukrainian officials and President Zelensky will also be present.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

EURJPY recovers losses but lacks new highs. Mixed signals; breakout above 164.20 or below 159.70 needed. EURJPY has been range-bound after immediately recouping the steep drop to 158.14 last week. Persistent rejections around the 163.00 area have capped upside momentum, but not all signs are negative. A bullish cross between the 20- and 200-day SMAs […]

The post EUR/JPY Sits on the Sidelines as ECB Rate Decision Looms appeared first on Action Forex.

Just six days ago, we highlighted the historic breakthrough of the $3,200 level for the first time. Now, as the XAU/USD chart shows today, the price of an ounce of gold on global exchanges is fluctuating above $3,300. Bullish sentiment is being driven by a weakening US dollar and rising trade tensions between the United […]

The post Gold Price Surpasses $3,300 for the First Time in History appeared first on Action Forex.

Rate cuts by year-end

• Fed: 86 bps (84% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• ECB: 79 bps (99% probability of rate cut at today’s decision)
• BoE: 79 bps (87% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• BoC: 45 bps (52% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)
• RBA: 118 bps (78% probability of 25 bps rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• RBNZ: 78 bps (99% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)
• SNB: 24 bps (74% probability of rate cut at the upcoming meeting)

* for the RBA, the rest of the probability is for a 50 bps cut.

Rate hikes by year-end

• BoJ: 14 bps (99% probability of no change at the upcoming meeting)

Since yesterday’s update we got some slight changes in the pricing. There is a less dovish pricing for the RBA following the solid Australian employment report today (although it remains pretty aggressive compared to just three weeks ago). Some positive comments from BoJ officials regarding the need of rate hikes have also impacted the expectations with a slightly more hawkish pricing.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.