The USD is mixed to start the new trading week in North America. That start will include the stock market which is trading higher as the market reacts to the hostage release in Isreal, and a “new dawn” in the Middle East, but the Bond market will be closed in honor of Columbus Day. Canada is also closed today. The USD is mixed to start the data with gains vs teh EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF but declines vs the AUD. The CAD and the NZD are mixed. In the video above, I take a technical look at the 3 major currency pairs, the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD give the moves to the upside in the greenback. What is the bias, the risk and the target levels in play for each and why.
In the news, the hostages have been released with Pres. Trump saying it is a historice dawn of a new Middle East. He is currently speaking but is also outlining a sweeping vision for regional stability and peace. He said his administration will first work to resolve the Ukraine-Russia conflict, describing that as a necessary step to achieving broader global peace. Trump added that the “forces of chaos” destabilizing the region have been defeated and emphasized that progress will begin with Russia. He announced U.S. support for Lebanon in efforts to disarm Hezbollah and said the entire region has endorsed a plan to disarm Hamas—moves he characterized as part of a unified strategy to end long-standing sources of conflict in the Middle East.
The other news over the weekend that is not so positive, Treasury President Trump announced an additional 100% tariff on imports from China, set to take effect on November 1, 2025, or sooner depending on China’s response. The new tariff will be added on top of existing duties already imposed on Chinese goods, significantly raising the overall cost of imports. Alongside the tariff escalation, the administration is introducing new export controls targeting critical software and technology. Earlier in the year, the U.S. had established a baseline “reciprocal tariff” system, including a minimum 10% rate on most imports and higher country-specific levels. While some tariffs on Chinese goods had previously been reduced during negotiation periods, the new measures mark a sharp re-escalation in trade tensions between Washington and Beijing
Secretary Bessent this mornins has said the U.S. has taken a strong stance against China’s export controls, calling the move provocative but emphasizing that communication channels remain active and constructive. He noted that U.S. officials have already been in contact with allies—including India—and are meeting them this week to coordinate responses. Bessent said China appears open to dialogue, but the U.S. has significant levers it can use if necessary and could move more aggressively than China has. He expressed confidence that tensions can be de-escalated, adding that President Trump is on track to meet with Chinese President Xi in Korea, with additional staff and ministerial-level meetings expected around the World Bank and IMF gatherings. While reaffirming that the U.S. seeks to “de-risk” rather than “decouple,” Bessent cautioned that China’s messaging continues to suggest a shift toward economic separation.
On more local news, Bessent is saying that the shutdown is getting serious and that it is starting to affect the economy.
A snapshot of the US stock market shows that some of the massive declines from Friday have been retraced:
Crude oil is trading up $0.61 at $50.51. Gold is up $56.27 at $4074.77 the high price today reached another new record at $4085.25 bitcoin is trading at $114,303. It tumbled on Friday falling from a high of $122,382. The low over the weekend reached $109,683.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
Nasdaq Futures Analysis and Trade Plan for Today: Fading the Gap-Up
This is an opinion, not financial advice, by Itai Levitan, investingLive.com
The U.S. stock market is closed today due to a public holiday, but Nasdaq futures opened with a notable gap-up. After Friday’s heavy move, traders are debating whether this strong push is an overreaction or the start of another leg higher. Our assessment points to a potential fade setup — a tactical opportunity to short into strength, applying core tradeCompass principles for controlled risk and partial profit-taking.
Nasdaq Futures Trade Plan (MNQ or NQ)
Average entry:
(24,978 + 25,024 + 25,067) / 3 = 25,023
Stop-loss: 25,223
Total risk (points): 25,223 – 25,023 = 200 points
Take Profit Targets (points gain from avg. entry):
TP1: 25,023 – 24,805 = 218 points
TP2: 25,023 – 24,619 = 404 points
TP3: 25,023 – 24,427 = 596 points
Assuming equal take-profit sizes (1/3 each), the average blended gain if all three are hit:
(218 + 404 + 596) / 3 = 406 points average gain
Reward-to-Risk Ratio (RRR)
Risk: 200 points
Reward: 406 points
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 406 / 200 = ≈ 2.0x
This means that for every 1 unit of risk, the trade offers a potential reward of roughly 2 times the risk, which is a healthy setup under tradeCompass risk management principles.
Percentage Calculations (Based on Average Entry 25,023)
Risk: (200 / 25,023) × 100 = 0.8% potential loss
Reward: (406 / 25,023) × 100 = 1.6% potential gain
These are realistic intraday-swing magnitudes — not extreme and within reason for Nasdaq futures volatility.
Market Context and Technical Setup
The fade idea is based on several technical confluences:
The area around 25,000 acts as a psychological round-number resistance, often triggering profit-taking and reversal attempts.
This zone overlaps with the Value Area Low (VAL) and Point of Control (POC) of October 7–8 — regions where prior high-volume activity occurred, suggesting supply may re-emerge.
The gap-up comes after a sharp Friday sell-off, hinting that today’s early strength could represent an overextension rather than renewed momentum.
By setting layered sell orders between 24,978 and 25,067, traders are fading this rally with controlled exposure.
Why Reward-to-Risk Matters
A good RR ratio is one of the cornerstones of professional trading. It ensures that even if a trader is right only half the time, consistent winners still outweigh losers.
For example:
With a 2:1 RR, a trader can afford to be wrong 50% of the time and still break even.
With disciplined stop placement (beyond the activation threshold but not far), risk is contained while allowing room for natural price fluctuation.
This is why tradeCompass emphasizes partial profit-taking and stop movement to breakeven after early targets are achieved.
Trade Management Plan
After TP1 (24,805) is reached: move the stop of the remaining position to the average entry (25,023) to protect gains.
After TP2 (24,619): consider taking another third off, securing a strong realized profit.
TP3 (24,427): optional runner for traders seeking to capitalize on extended momentum.
This is a tactical fade setup, not a long-term short bias. The expectation is for a temporary retracement from overextended prices rather than a full trend reversal. Traders should remember that today’s U.S. stock market closure may lead to thin liquidity, which can exaggerate both moves and reversals.
Use this setup as a model for disciplined execution — risk small, scale out strategically, and always align your trade with a favorable reward-to-risk profile.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trade at your own risk. For live trade ideas and setups, join our Telegram group at https://t.me/investingLiveStocks
This article was written by Itai Levitan at investinglive.com.
End of content
End of content