The U.S. Treasury sold $39 billion of 10 year notes at a high yield of 4.175%
AUCTION GRADE: C+/B-
The 10 year note auction came in with a 0.0 basis point tail which is precisely the six-month average. The bid to cover was just marginally higher than the six-month average. The domestic the bidders were just above the six-month average while the in directs were also just above the six-month average. As a result the dealers were saddled with about 1.2% less than the norm.
That was good enough for a C+/B- grade in my view.
There is little reaction. However, in general, the 10 year yield is comfortably above the 4.0% level at 4.17%. Recall that toward the end of November, the yield reached a low of 3.962%. The current level is near the high levels going back to September 26 and is also near a swing area between 4.17% and 4.199%. Move above that area and we could see a further pop in yields.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
European Indices End Mixed as Trading Winds Down
The major European stock indices closed the session mixed, with performance varying across the region. Germany’s DEU40 led to the upside, gaining 0.49% at 24,162.66, while France’s CAC40 lagged, falling 0.69% to 8,052.52. The UK’s FTSE 100 (UKX) hovered near unchanged levels, slipping just 0.03% to 9,642.00.
Spain’s market data included duplicate readings for the IBEX 35, both showing the index up 0.13% at 16,734.49, confirming a modest gain on the day. Italy’s FTMIB also posted a respectable rise of 0.33%, closing at 43,574.51.
U.S. stock indices are mixed as London and European traders call it a day
As European traders head for the exits, U.S. equities are mixed in early trading.
Dow Jones (DJI): 47,724.12, down 0.03%
S&P 500 (SPX): 6,854.43, up 0.12%
Nasdaq (IXIC): 23,588.28, up 0.18%
The modest moves reflect a cautious tone ahead of today’s Treasury auction and lingering macro uncertainty.
U.S. Treasury Yields head higher ahead of 10 year auction
The U.S. Treasury market is showing small upward moves in yields across much of the curve:
2-year: 3.6043% (+0.021 basis points)
5-year: 3.7691% (+0.017 basis points)
10-year: 4.1741% (unchanged)
30 year 4.800%, (-1.5 basis points)
Further out the curve, long-end yields dipped slightly, with the 20-year and 30-year down by 0.012 and 0.014 respectively.
A key focal point today will be the U.S. Treasury’s auction of $39 billion in 10-year notes at 1:00 PM ET, which could influence yield direction and risk sentiment into the afternoon session.
Commodities & Crypto: Silver Breaks Above $60 for the First Time Ever
The commodities complex is uneven, with crude oil under pressure while precious metals surge.
US Oil: $58.22, down 1.05%
Gold: $4,206.095, up 0.37%
Silver: $60.115 — up 3.40%, trading above $60 for the first time ever
Bitcoin: $93,727, up 3.40%
Silver’s breakout above the $60 mark marks a historic milestone, underscoring strong investment flows into precious metals as inflation hedges and volatility dampeners.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
NZDUSD Rides Risk Momentum After Hawkish RBA Decision
The NZDUSD is trading higher today, supported in part by strength in its sister currency, AUDUSD, which surged after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered a more hawkish-leaning decision. While the overall tone is bullish, the upside move has not been a straight line. Early in the U.S. session, the pair dipped lower, but that pullback found strong support at the rising 100-hour moving average, currently near 0.57744.
Holding above that moving average keeps the short-term bias tilted in favor of buyers, reinforcing the notion that the recent correction was a pause rather than a reversal.
Key Fibonacci Level in Play: 38.2% Retracement as a Battleground
Also important today is the 38.2% retracement of the decline from the July high to the November low, which sits at 0.57835. The price has been oscillating around this level, signaling that the market is testing buyer conviction.
For buyers to remain firmly in control, the ideal scenario is to stay above both the 100-hour moving average and the 38.2% retracement. Holding that dual support zone would keep bullish momentum intact and build the foundation for the next leg higher.
Upside Roadmap: 0.5800 and the 100-Day Moving Average
If NZDUSD remains supported above these key intraday levels, the next upside target lies at the 0.5800 handle—a swing high from October and a key pivot point extending back to August. A break above that level exposes the falling 100-day moving average at 0.5809.
Notably, NZDUSD has not traded above its 100-day MA since mid-September. Reclaiming that longer-term moving average would mark a meaningful shift in trend and could unlock additional upside potential.
Beyond that, traders will look toward the 50% midpoint of the broader July–November decline at 0.58476, a level that would serve as a natural technical magnet if bullish momentum accelerates.
Bottom Line: Buyers Are Making a Move—Now They Must Defend It
Buyers have stepped in and are trying to carve out a more constructive bullish structure.
Staying above the 100-hour moving average is the first requirement.
Breaking and holding above the 100-day moving average strengthens the bullish bias significantly.
If these conditions hold, the NZDUSD has room to extend higher into deeper retracement levels and reestablish a broader upward trajectory.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
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