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In the absence of the US federal government’s data releases due to the shutdown, the preliminary figures of its monthly Consumer Confidence Index, released by the University of Michigan (UoM), are expected to gain extraordinary relevance on Friday.

The Pound Sterling (GBP) strives to gain ground against the US Dollar (USD) during Friday’s European trading session after posting a fresh two-month low around 1.3280 earlier in the day.

The AUD/USD pair edges lower to near 0.6550 during the late European trading session on Friday. The Aussie pair faces a slight selling pressure as the US Dollar holds onto gains driven by recent political developments in Japan and France.

USD is expected to trade in a range between 7.1200 and 7.1550, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

Statistics Canada will release its Labour Force Survey on Friday, and markets are bracing for a mixed print. The Unemployment Rate is expected to tick higher to 7.2% in September, while the Employment Change is forecast to rise by 5K new workers after a huge loss in August.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is up 0.2% against the US Dollar (USD) and outperforming all of the G10 currencies as we head into Friday’s NA session, Scotiabank’s Chief FX Strategists Shaun Osborne and Eric Theoret report.

US Dollar (USD) is likely to trade in a range of 152.40/153.40. In the longer run, further USD strength is likely; the level to watch is 153.80, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.

EUR/USD’s recovery is losing steam ahead of Friday’s US session opening. The pair is trading right above 1.1560 at the time of writing, down from session highs near 1.1590.

• I don’t know if I am a finalist for the position or not
• There was nothing political about the interview
• “It was all serious economics”
• There have been shutdowns before, there is a lot of private sector data to rely on
• Pieces of data are all telling the same story now, that the labour market is not doing great
• ADP data is consistent with where BLS data was heading, that is towards negative jobs growth
• CPI data will help a lot in the coming meeting
• Tariffs effect on inflation is a one-time change and can be looked through
• If inflation goes up and comes back down, it should not influence monetary policy
• The Fed needs to cut rates but also needs to be cautious about it
• Fed is not going to be aggressive or fast, will move in quarter point steps
• The labour market is not tight in any way

That’s arguably the first confirmation that we are getting of how the official labour market data from the BLS might have looked if released. Waller is definitely tilting more dovishly with his remarks overall, so it’s not clear cut to say that non-farm payrolls would have been that abysmal but we’ll see in due time. I mean, he has to play the game if he wants to be Fed chair so..

In any case, he is almost certainly in the final shortlist as seen here. As for the CPI report mention, just be wary that the BLS is working on it and the Fed might get a glimpse of that data. However, it will likely be delayed past the original release date of 15 October.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Headlines:

• Gold recovers losses on the day, silver looks to seal a break above $50
• The list for Fed Chair candidates has been narrowed down to 5
• ECB’s Dolenc: Monetary policy is in a good place
• ECB’s Kazaks: ECB rate at 2% is appropriate
• ECB’s Escriva: Inflation remains contained
• ECB’s Villeroy says that French economy is holding up
• BOJ governor Ueda set for visit to the US from 14-19 October
• Japan’s Komeito leader Saito reportedly expressed intention to withdraw from coalition
• Japan’s Komeito leader Saito: We cannot agree with LDP on issues involving money, politics
• Reminder: It will be a long weekend in the US

Markets:

• JPY leads, GBP lags on the day
• European equities mixed; S&P 500 futures up 0.1%
• US 10-year yields down 3.9 bps to 4.109%
• Gold up 0.5% to $3,995.25
• WTI crude oil down 1.2% to $60.78
• Bitcoin up 0.3% to $121,513

There weren’t any major headlines in European trading today, with a lack of key economic data releases not helping. But still, precious metals continue to find a way to hog the spotlight again with both gold and silver poised for eight straight weeks of gains now.

After a mild “setback” yesterday, both are seen pushing higher again today with gold rebounding from $3,947 to retest the $4,000 mark while silver is attempting to make clearance above $50. The latter even crossed above $51 earlier in the session before a bout of profit-taking came along, though price is still up over 2% to $50.13 currently.

In the FX space, there wasn’t much for major currencies to work with in general. The dollar is holding steady for the most part, only down slightly against the yen after Komeito party leader, Tetsuo Saito, said that they will withdraw from the governing coalition. That adds a complication to LDP president Sanae Takaichi’s bid to become prime minister.

USD/JPY is down just slightly by 0.2% to 152.67, also cooling off after some verbal intervention by Tokyo officials.

In the equities space, things remain more muted with European indices not really doing all too much and keeping more mixed on the day. The DAX remains lightly changed after posting a record close yesterday, which also came just by the slightest of margins. US futures are seen posting a marginal bounce, so there’s not too much to work with in terms of risk sentiment.

With the US government shutdown still in effect heading into the long weekend, market players continue to be left hanging for the most part and figuring stuff out on their own devices.

The dollar is set to end the week higher but remains vulnerable to any potential softening in US data and the economy, if and when there is evidence of that. And as things stand, the Fed remains set to cut interest rates again at the end of the month.

But this week, it’s all about gold and silver for the most part as the rally continues. Putting the pedal to the mettle metal. 🤘

Have a great weekend, everyone!

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.