Tech stocks have struggled in 2025, as recession and trade war fears sap investor appetite for riskier assets. Palantir has bucked the trend.

The Trump Administration’s sudden change in visa policies is causing some international students to rethink whether they want to study in the U.S. at all.

The CEO required a number of costly security measures as he traveled in 2024

The Trump administration dismissed a CFPB lawsuit against National Collegiate Student Loan Trusts, abandoning a $2.25 million proposed settlement.

The S&P 500 has dropped 7.9% since Inauguration Day, CFRA Research data shows.

• Eurozone March M3 money supply +3.6% vs +4.0% y/y expected
• Prior +4.0%
• Loans to households Y/Y 1.7% vs 1.5% prior
• Loans to companies Y/Y 2.3% vs 2.2% prior

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

S&P 500 Futures Deep Analysis and Outlook

Current Market Context for ES

Over the past two and a half trading sessions, the S&P 500 futures (ES) have traded in a defined range between approximately 5,488 and 5,568. This type of market action typically signifies an equilibrium point, where buyers (bulls) and sellers (bears) wrestle for control. Investors, traders, and analysts are closely watching key levels within this range to determine the next significant directional move.

Understanding Market Structure with Volume Profile and VWAP

To gain deeper insight, we incorporate two powerful analytical tools: Volume Profile and the Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP).

Volume Profile shows the distribution of trading volume over price levels, highlighting key “value areas” where most trading activity occurs:

• Value Area High (VAH) represents the upper boundary where approximately 70% of trading volume occurred.

• Value Area Low (VAL) marks the lower boundary of this high-volume trading zone.

• Point of Control (POC) is the price level at which the highest trading volume occurred, indicating significant market interest.

VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) is an essential tool that represents the average price weighted by trading volume over a specified time. Traders and institutional investors use VWAP as a benchmark to gauge whether current prices are favorable for buying or selling.

Key Levels Currently in Play

• 5,566.5: Yesterday’s VAH—a critical resistance being tested now.

• 5,550 Area: Today’s VAL and the April 25th POC, forming a significant confluence.

• 5,511.75 and 5,500: April 25th VAL and a psychologically crucial round number.

• 5,497.5: April 24th POC, another crucial zone of market activity.

These levels act as magnets for price action, attracting significant institutional trading activity and often prompting decisive market movements.

Simplified OrderFlow Intel Update (Late Session Apr 29)

Prediction Score: +4 (Mild Bullish Bias, Cautious Optimism)

Since midday yesterday, buyers have generally maintained control, but the latest order flow data indicates cautious optimism:

• Buying pressure has gradually strengthened, shown by a positive net buying volume (Delta) through recent sessions.

• A temporary setback occurred in the late evening with sellers briefly overtaking buyers, but buyers quickly reasserted themselves.

• Low trading volume in the most recent bar indicates that market participants remain cautious.

What this means:

• If trading volume picks up and price remains above critical support areas, buyers could push towards recent session highs.

• Continued low volume and lack of buyer follow-through may lead to sideways or mildly bearish price action.

Overall, the order flow suggests that while buyers hold a slight advantage, caution and confirmation from increased volume are necessary for sustained upward momentum.

Bullish Scenario for S&P 500 Futures Today: Levels to Watch for an Upward Move

If the bulls manage to sustain prices above yesterday’s VAH (5,566.5), this could trigger further buying and a short squeeze, pushing the market toward these key upside targets:

• 5,617 and 5,624: Intermediate resistance levels.

• 5,655: Primary target based on historical volume clusters—a logical area for significant profit-taking or reassessment.

• Extended targets include 5,690 (April 2nd POC) and eventually 5,723-5,725 (April 2nd VAH), marking more ambitious profit objectives for longer-term traders.

Bearish Scenario for S&P 500 Futures Today: Critical Levels Below to Monitor

Should bears regain momentum, the first critical downside test is at 5,548, where today’s VAL and recent POCs converge. If sustained selling pushes prices below this pivotal area (confirmed by closing one or two 30-minute candles), it signals increased bearish strength:

• Immediate bearish targets include 5,533, followed by the psychologically significant round number 5,500.

• Further bearish pressure could lead down toward 5,467 near the April 24th VWAP—a key price area watched closely by institutional investors.

Educational Insight: The Power of Order Flow & Volume Analysis

Order Flow analysis reveals how aggressively buyers or sellers are executing their trades. By understanding order flow, traders and investors get early indications of potential reversals, breakouts, or continuations—often before traditional price-based indicators signal.

Volume Profile and VWAP analysis enhance this by clearly marking out “zones of interest,” guiding strategic entries, exits, and risk management strategies for both short-term traders and long-term investors.

What This Means for S&P 500 Traders and Investors

• Short-term traders: Keep a sharp eye on the decisive pivot level at 5,566.5. A confirmed breakout could offer attractive short-term bullish trading opportunities, with clearly defined targets above.

• Long-term investors: This analysis provides early insight into the broader market sentiment. If the bulls sustain higher, this could signal renewed confidence in the market, beneficial for selectively adding positions in quality stocks. Conversely, a breakdown could suggest waiting for lower levels before making significant new investments.

Bottom Line for Today’s S&P 500 Futures Outlook

Markets are at a crucial juncture. Bulls are currently showing subtle resilience but have yet to confirm their dominance. Bears are waiting for their opportunity to reverse the trend but the underlying stats favor the bulls, unless bears capture and sustain below 5,548. Investors and traders alike should remain agile, using the levels outlined in this analysis to make informed, disciplined decisions.

Remember, successful trading and investing require a comprehensive understanding of market mechanics beyond traditional chart patterns or moving averages. Leveraging tools like Order Flow Intel, Volume Profile, and VWAP analysis gives you an institutional-level edge. The junctions mentioned – the price levels – are also close areas where you can consider taking partial profits! This is critical to traders.

Stay informed, stay prepared, and trade wisely.

Note: This analysis and prediction is provided for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own analysis and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

ForexLive.com is evolving to become investingLive.com later this year. Remember our new name and warm up for some new exciting things coming to investors and traders worldwide.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

• If US wants resolution, it should stop making threats.
• US should seek dialogue with China on tariffs.
• Tariffs war was launched by US.

Nothing new here. The Chinese continue to repeat that they are open for dialogue and resolution but they won’t be the first to call since the ‘tariff war was launched by US’.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Potential for sudden stops in capital flows, payment disruption and volatility in currency markets requires robust contingency planning.
• There are further signs that geopolitical considerations increasingly influence decisions to invest in gold.
• Recent increase in trade policy uncertainty could reduce Euro Area business investment by 1.1% in the first year and real GDP growth by around 0.2% in 2025-2026.
• The observed increase in financial market volatility might imply lower GDP growth of about 0.2% in 2025.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.