News

A notable detail from Howard Lutnick’s interview on CNBC today was that the US has a trade deal with one country ready to go — pending ratification from a country’s parliament and leadership.

That was followed up by Fox Business’ Charlie Gasparino who wrote that “word on Wall Street” was that it was India or South Korea.

Two things point to India:

1) A hint from earlier today

Earlier today Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said they were one of the easiest countries to negotiate with because they have so many tariffs. That meant the US could ask for them to be taken down and the ask was relatively clear. With non-tariff barriers, it can get more difficult and complicated.

2) The structure of parliament

Because the Union cabinet in India can implement a tariff-cutting deal by executive notification that only has to be tabled in Parliament, not approved by a full vote, the ruling National Democratic Alliance can bring a U-S-India tariff package into force in a few weeks to a couple of months after signature. Because of the structure of government, opposition parties would have to actively defeat it, rather than passing it and the NDA have enough seats to block that path.

South Korea’s parliament is controlled by the opposition and it’s very contentious at the moment. Even with some cooperation, it would take 6-12 months to approve because of hearings, studies and public consultations. A previous US deal that wasn’t contentious took 5 months to approve, though you could argue the US could waive tariffs before approval if it was on track.

All told: Bet on India if you have to pick a spot.

This article was written by Adam Button at www.forexlive.com.

Amazon said Tuesday it considered displaying import charges on items sold via its site for ultradiscount items, but that the plan “was never approved and not going to happen.”

Waiting until age 70 to claim Social Security provides the biggest checks in retirement. But it can sometimes make sense to claim earlier. Here’s what to know.

Meta Platforms is launching a stand-alone artificial intelligence app and going head-to-head with OpenAI maker ChatGPT.

The S&P index rose for it 6th consecutive day. Yesterday the NASDAQ index snapped a five day went streak with a modest point. Over all the major indices were up in trading today. A snapshot of the closing levels shows:

• Dow industrial average rose 300.03 points or 0.75% at 40527.62.
• S&P index up 32.08 points or 0.58% at 5560.83.
• NASDAQ index rose 95.18 points or 0.55% at 17461.32.

The small-cap Russell 2000 rose 10.96 points or 0.56% at 1976.51.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

US Treasury Secretary Bessent

more to come

• No trade deal is done until Trump announces it
• Bessent: Trump needs to sign off on 18 key trade deals, he is involved in talks

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Shares of Starbucks have fallen 8% this year, as investors worry about tariffs and how they will affect consumer spending.

It’s a busy session ahead for data.

China’s April PMIs are expected to fall back a little from March, both the official and the unofficial. Trump tariffs should continue to bit in the months ahead. I posted on some analyst takes on jobs and economic activity:

• Goldman Sachs says Trump tariffs could endanger 16 million export jobs in China
• Hidden damage: Trump tariffs threaten bigger blow to China’s economy, Nomura warns

Australian CPI data is due. The consensus has built for an Reserve Bank of Australia rate cut in May:

• “Lock it in: RBA to cut 25bps in May” – Westpac forecast for the Reserve Bank of Australia

This snapshot from the ForexLive economic data calendar, access it here.

The times in the left-most column are GMT.

The numbers in the right-most column are the ‘prior’ (previous month/quarter as the case may be) result. The number in the column next to that, where there is a number, is the consensus median expected.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Good morning, afternoon and evening all. Any charts, technical analysis, trade ideas, thoughts, views, ForexLive traders would like to share and discuss with fellow ForexLive traders, please do so:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Mom-and-pop shops say they’re already juggling rising food costs—now tariffs are making it even harder to keep prices steady.