Federal Reserve speakers Friday include Bostic, Daly, and Goolsbee

  • 1620 GMT/1220 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic gives welcome remarks before the Council for Economic Education’s 2025 National Economics Challenge, in Atlanta, Ga
  • 1745 GMT/1345 US Eastern time: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly participates in panel before virtual Reagan National Economic Forum, in Simi Valley, Calif
    • At 2045 GMT/1645 US Eastern time: Daly will participate in another panel at the same Forum
  • 2330 GMT/1930 user: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee participates in moderated Q&A before “The Interview Show with Mark Bazer,” in Chicago, Ill

Daly spoke earlier in the timezone here:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

WSJ Timiraos: This month is good, but what will the impact of tariffs going forward

Two headwinds that will make things look worse going forward.

A year ago tame PCE MoM data will fall off from the YoY calculation, putting upside pressure on the YoY levels.

  • May 2024, 0.0%
  • June 2024, 0.1%
  • July 2024, 0.2%
  • August 2024, 0.1%
  • September 2024, 0.2%
  • October 2024, 0.2%

3- month average: 0.1% 6-month average: 0.13%

For the core MoM over the next 6-months

  • May 2024, 0.1%
  • June 2024, 0.2%
  • July 2024, 0.2%
  • August 2024, 0.1%
  • September 2024, 0.3%
  • October 2024, 0.3%

3-month average of core PCE: 1.67%6-month average of core PCE: 0.2%

MoM gains of 0.2% or more for headline and core data will mathematically move the YoY up for the headline and the core measures.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

ECB’s Panetta: Reduced room to cut rates further, but macro outlook remains weak

  • Reduced room to cut rates further, but macro outlook remains weak and trade tensions could worsen it.
  • Future rate decisions need to be assessed on case by case basis, weighing data, inflation and growth outlook.
  • Essential to maintain pragmatic and flexible approach, closely monitor liquidity conditions.
  • Disinflation has not taken too high a toll on the Eurozone economy and is now close to completion.
  • Outcome of trade negotiations uncertain but impact on European economy bound to be significant.
  • Sectors most exposed to tariffs already showing signs of falling confidence, weaker expectations on orders and employment.

He’s a dove but he’s sounding more neutral here. The ECB is getting close to its estimated neutral rate, so they are now getting even more data-dependent for further rate reductions.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.