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ES Futures Analysis: VWAP Test Underway, Order Flow Signals Caution

📈 ES Futures Analysis for Today: VWAP Test Underway, Order Flow Signals Caution

Prediction Score: +4 (Mild Bullish Bias)

ES Futures are making a cautious move higher after bouncing from support near 5492.25, but order flow shows buyers encountering resistance around the VWAP zone. With Delta SL (Delta Since Low) showing buyer defense, momentum is on the bulls’ side—but absorption at VWAP is keeping a full breakout in check.

🔍 Key Price Levels to Watch

🧠 What Order Flow Tells Us

  1. Buyer Defense Confirmed

    • Delta SL surged at 16:33 (932), 16:40 (2027), and again at 17:04 (1320), showing buyers stepping in and defending intraday lows.

    • These spikes in Delta SL are often early signs of bullish reversals building energy.

  2. Cumulative Delta Rising

    • From 6055 to 10031, net delta supports an upward bias.

    • However, the 16:57 bar had 32K trades with only +5 delta — that’s a red flag for liquidity absorption or hidden selling at VWAP.

  3. Mixed Momentum Near VWAP

    • The last push (17:04) tried to retest VWAP with a +1047 delta and solid Delta SL, but it wasn’t as powerful as the earlier 16:40 spike (+2096 delta).

🧭 TradeCompass Outlook

This is a decision point market — not yet a breakout, not yet a rejection. Let the price tip its hand.

✅ If Price Holds Above 5510.75–5515

  • Look for confirmation from strong delta change and a fresh Delta SL spike (1500+).

  • Target upside toward 5522.25, potentially even higher.

  • This would represent a clean VWAP breakout supported by buyer strength.

❌ If Price Rejects and Falls Below 5506

  • Especially if delta turns weak or negative again, favor a pullback setup.

  • Downside targets:

    • 5495.31 (interim support)

    • 5492.25 (major support and origin of bounce)

This would signal that VWAP is still acting as a ceiling, not a launchpad.

⚠️ Clarification for Traders and Investors

This analysis gives you a real-time compass, not a prediction in a vacuum. If price is hovering just below a bullish threshold without strong delta, that’s a short setup. If it breaks above with strength, the opposite is true. This dual-path framework is built to help you react intelligently to unfolding price behavior — not just plan ahead blindly.

🔁 Use this structure for partial profit-taking and entry zone refinement. The best setups emerge when price tells you its next move — the map just helps you listen better.

📌 Trade at your own risk. This compass is designed as a decision support tool, not financial advice.

Visit ForexLive.com, evolving later this year to investingLive.com, for additonal views.

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

ES Futures Analysis: VWAP Test Underway, Order Flow Signals Caution Read More »

EURUSD stays below the 200 hour MA. 100 hour MA is moving toward 200 hour MA

The EURUSD stretched higher in the US session, but after reaching a high price of 1.1388, and getting within four pips of its 200-hour moving average, buyers turned to sellers and have pushed the price back lower.

The current price is trading at 1.13727 after reaching a post-high low price of 1.1364.

Yesterday, the price moved briefly above the 200-hour moving average on three separate hourly bars, but momentum died after extending above five or fewer pips above that MA. Momentum could not be sustained.

At session lows today, the price approached the lows from Wednesday (two lows) near 1.13072. The low today reached 1.1314 before finding buyers.

.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EURUSD stays below the 200 hour MA. 100 hour MA is moving toward 200 hour MA Read More »

Kremlin: US envoy Witkoff and Putin met for 3-hours. Talks were constructive

The Kremlin is reporting that :

  • US envoy Witkoff met with Russian Pres. Putin for three hours
  • Talks were constructive
  • Talks brought the sides closer on Ukraine and other questions.
  • There was a discussion of renewing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.

We know from previous comments this week and from the Time magazine article released overnight, that Ukraine will need to cede Crimea to Russia for peace to occur. Ukraine has balked at that idea.

Pres. Trump also this week publicly scolded Russian’s Putin for continuing to bomb which seemingly is to balance the conversation.

If a ball is in play, it seems it is back in Ukraine’s court.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Kremlin: US envoy Witkoff and Putin met for 3-hours. Talks were constructive Read More »

EU Comm. Dombrovski: Reiterates that EU willing to reach mutually agreeable solution w/ US

EU Commissioner Dombrovski is on the wires saying:

  • Had cordial and candid meeting with United States Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
  • Reiterates that the EU is going to reach a mutually agreeable solution with US on tariffs.
  • He also emphasized the need for continued support for Ukraine

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

EU Comm. Dombrovski: Reiterates that EU willing to reach mutually agreeable solution w/ US Read More »

Earnings calendar: Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, McDonald’s, Starbucks, Coca-Cola

The earnings calendar heats up next week with the number of big-name releases including Coca-Cola, Pfizer, Starbucks, Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Apple, McDonald’s, Exxon Mobil, and Chevron on scheduled to release. Below is the full list of some of the bigger names on the schedule.

Monday, April 29

Before Open:

  • Domino’s Pizza (DPZ)

  • MGM Resorts (MGM)

After Close:

  • Waste Management (WM)

  • NXP Semiconductors (NXPI)

  • F5 Networks (FFIV)

  • Teradyne (TER)

Tuesday, April 30

Before Open:

  • SoFi (SOFI)

  • PayPal (PYPL)

  • UPS

  • JetBlue (JBLU)

  • Coca-Cola (KO)

  • Pfizer (PFE)

  • Royal Caribbean (RCL)

  • Spotify (SPOT)

  • Altria (MO)

After Close:

  • Visa (V)

  • Starbucks (SBUX)

  • Snap Inc. (SNAP)

  • First Solar (FSLR)

  • PPG Industries (PPG)

  • Booking Holdings (BKNG)

Wednesday, May 1

Before Open:

  • Humana (HUM)

  • Caterpillar (CAT)

  • Vulcan Materials (VMC)

  • Western Digital (WDC)

  • Generac (GNRC)

  • International Paper (IP)

  • Hess (HES)

After Close:

  • Microsoft (MSFT)

  • Meta (META)

  • Robinhood (HOOD)

  • Qualcomm (QCOM)

Thursday, May 2

Before Open:

  • Eli Lilly (LLY)

  • Roblox (RBLX)

  • CVS Health (CVS)

  • Mastercard (MA)

  • SiriusXM (SIRI)

  • McDonald’s (MCD)

  • Shake Shack (SHAK)

After Close:

  • Amazon (AMZN)

  • Apple (AAPL)

  • Airbnb (ABNB)

📅 Friday, May 3

Before Open:

  • ExxonMobil (XOM)

  • Chevron (CVX)

  • Cigna (CI)

  • Wendy’s (WEN)

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

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WSJ Timiraos. Don’t get excited about Fed Hammacks comments this week.

Fed watcher, Nick Timiraos of the WSJ is tweeting that comments from Fed’s Hammack on Thursday are not really saying a June rate cut is forthcoming. The qualifier is “if”. Whenever there is an “if” it means a condition or more likely conditions still need to happen and they can be for than one, a couple or a few…

His full tweet:

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Read More »