News

Current homeowners are turning to government FHA loans, which offer lower interest rates, to find savings, as conventional rates turn higher.

• Fed preview: a “hawkish cut” is expected but here’s what could surprise the market
• FX option expiries for 10 December 10am New York cut
• ECB’s Villeroy: the wise thing would be to maintain ECB rates at current level
• ECB’s Simkus: rates can probably stay at 2% at further meetings
• BoC preview: the central bank is unlikely to validate the rate hike bets just yet
• What are the main events for today?

It’s been a very boring session with no data or notable news releases. In the markets, it’s been the same with rangebound price action almost across the board. But that shouldn’t be surprising because we are counting the hours to the last FOMC decision of the year.

Before the Fed, we will have the Bank of Canada delivering its rate decision where the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged but not validating the rate hike bets just yet.

Given the incoming Fed’s decision, the BoC event is unlikely to bring too much volatility unless the central bank clearly pushes back against market pricing or opens the door for rate hikes already at this meeting.

The Fed, on the other hand, is widely expected to deliver a “hawkish” 25 bps cut bringing the FFR to 3-50-3.75%. The overall tone is expected to be more hawkish with clear signal of a pause and the bar for further cuts being higher.

We will also get new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) and the Dot Plot at this meeting, although little changes are expected. The focus will be on potential surprises and especially on the Press Conference where Fed Chair Powell will have to strike a balance between sounding too hawkish or too dovish.

Wish you all a successful trading day. Don’t bet without conviction and keep your risk management in check. Will catch you tomorrow!

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EUR/USD has given away most of the gains taken on Wednesday’s early European session and trades at the 1.1630 area, after rejection at session highs near 1.1660. Investors are looking from the sidelines, awaiting the US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy decision due later in the day.

The Australian Dollar is trading practically flat below a nearly two-month high, at 0.6654, hit on Tuesday.

U.S. Treasury yields moved higher on Wednesday as investors looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s interest decision, set to take place early afternoon.

There’s less than a week left for consumers to pick an Affordable Care Act health insurance plan to ensure coverage starts in 2026.

KEY POINTS:

• All eyes on the Fed’s decision today
• More hawkish than expected decision is likely to trigger a selloff
• More dovish than expected one should support silver further
• Key near-term support around the 59.00 level

FUNDAMENTAL
OVERVIEW

Silver continues to break records as Fed rate cut bets after Fed’s Williams comments on November 21 pushed the precious metal to new all-time highs. The market might have gotten a bit overstretched though, and that increases the risk of an aggressive selloff in case the Fed today were to come out more hawkish than expected.

The FOMC is expected to deliver a “hawkish cut” today. In fact, the consensus sees the central bank to signal a pause and communicate that the bar for more rate cuts will now be higher. That won’t be surprising, so it shouldn’t really scare the market.

Traders will be looking for deviations from the expectations. A more hawkish than expected Fed will likely lead to an aggressive selloff in silver, possibly even taking it back to the 55.00 level in short order. On the other hand, a more dovish than expected decision should give further boost to the precious metal.

There are several potential surprises though that could trigger much stronger reactions in the markets and you can read more about it here.

SILVER TECHNICAL
ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, we can
see that after breaking the previous all-time highs around the 54.46 level,
silver extended the gains as more buyers piled in and increased the momentum. From
a risk management perspective, the buyers will have a better risk to reward setup
around the previous all-time high and/or the upward trendline.

If we get a pullback into
those levels, we can expect the buyers to step in to position for a rally into a
new all-time high. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for downside
breaks to regain control and push into new lows.

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4
HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that we have a minor upward trendline defining the bullish momentum and a clear
support zone around the 59.00 level. If we get a pullback, we can expect the
buyers to step in there with a defined risk below the trendline to keep pushing
into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break lower to pile
in for a deeper pullback into the 54.46 level next.

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1
HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much else we can add here as the buyers will have a better risk to reward
setup around the 59.00 support, while the sellers should wait for a break below
the trendline to gain more conviction for the downside. The red lines define
the average daily range for today.

UPCOMING CATALYSTS

Today we have the Fed’s decision.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

Gold (XAU/USD) edges slightly lower on Wednesday, with price action contained inside the recent consolidation zone as markets brace for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision. At the time of writing, XAU/USD is hovering near $4,200, down from the intraday high of $4,218.

Brazil IPCA Inflation registered at 0.18%, below expectations (0.2%) in November