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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) signalled it will remain cautious and data dependent on future policy moves, with the board seeing no immediate need to cut interest rates at its September meeting despite softer economic indicators and ongoing uncertainty abroad.
AUD/USD is barely changed.
Minutes released Tuesday showed the board kept the cash rate at 3.60%, following three earlier cuts this year, and said upcoming third-quarter inflation and consumption data will be key ahead of the November 4 meeting. Policymakers judged that monetary policy was “probably still a little restrictive”, but noted early signs that previous easing was supporting housing activity, with rising home prices and loan approvals.
The RBA said consumer spending had recovered faster than expected and was likely to persist, though some recent data suggested moderation. Monthly inflation readings for July and August, particularly in housing and services, pointed to potential upside risk for Q3 inflation, which markets view as pivotal for the timing of the next rate move.
The minutes also noted the labour market remains tight, with unemployment steady at 4.2%, though some members saw a risk that private-sector wage growth could slow faster than expected. Globally, the board cited uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and a weaker Chinese economy as ongoing downside risks.
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Reserve Bank of Australia minutes headlines via Reuters:
Future policy decisions to be cautious and data dependent
Market path for cash rate within estimates of neutral, but too imprecise to guide policy
Important to see what Q3 data showed on economy, supply capacity
Policy probably still a little restrictive, but difficult to determine
Pick up in housing prices, loans indicated past rate cuts were having an impact
Some time before full impact of past easing would be felt
Still risks on both sides for economy, consumption could be stronger but jobs and wages softer
Data, liaison suggested Q2 recovery in household consumption was likely to persist
Monthly CPI readings on housing, services suggested Q3 inflation could be above forecast
Board noted services inflation proving stubborn in other developed nations
Labour market still a little tight, forward indicators steady
Saw risk private sector wage growth could ease a little faster than expected
A$ close to estimates of equilibrium level given terms of trade, yield differentials
Considerable uncertainty about global outlook, US tariffs, China economy
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Australia NAB Business Survey
Business conditions 8
Business confidence 7
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Australian business conditions held steady in September, as stronger sales and profits were offset by weaker employment, according to the latest National Australia Bank (NAB) survey.
NAB’s index of business conditions was unchanged at +8, while business confidence rose three points to +7, sitting just above its long-run average. “Both business confidence and conditions appear to be consolidating slightly above trend after improving through mid-2025,” said NAB Chief Economist Sally Auld.
Sales rose three points to +16, and profitability edged up to +6, continuing an upward trend since May — a positive sign for future hiring. However, forward orders fell three points, slipping below average into negative territory.
Input costs ticked higher, while retail price growth accelerated to 0.7% from 0.5%, and labour cost growth eased slightly to 1.5%. The data suggest underlying resilience in business activity even as firms remain cautious amid an uncertain inflation and rate outlook.
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The steady NAB survey suggests underlying resilience in Australia’s business sector despite soft hiring and weaker forward orders. Modest price pressures and improving confidence support the RBA’s cautious policy stance, reinforcing expectations for steady rates near term.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
Bank of America expects precious metals to extend their rally into 2026.
Analysts at the bank said the White House’s unconventional policy approach, marked by:
should continue to support demand for gold. Those policies, it said, are likely to weaken the U.S. dollar and reinforce demand for hard assets as investors hedge against inflation and policy uncertainty.
The bullish call underscores BofA’s view that gold’s multi-year rally is not yet over, even after record highs in 2025, as macro and political conditions continue to favour safe-haven flows.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
People’s Bank of China USD/CNY reference rate is due around 0115 GMT.
The People’s Bank of China (PBOC), China’s central bank, is responsible for setting the daily midpoint of the yuan (also known as renminbi or RMB). The PBOC follows a managed floating exchange rate system that allows the value of the yuan to fluctuate within a certain range, called a “band,” around a central reference rate, or “midpoint.” It’s currently at +/- 2%.
How the process works:
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
There was a wobble for the Singapore dollar, but it soon calmed to be be not much changed.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) kept monetary policy unchanged, as widely expected
The central bank said economic growth has been stronger than expected, with the output gap to stay positive through 2025 before returning to balance next year. It expects core inflation to bottom out soon and rise gradually in 2026 as temporary disinflationary factors fade.
The decision came alongside data showing Singapore’s economy expanded 2.9% year-on-year in Q3.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
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