News

With Dreamforce about to kick off in San Francisco, Salesforce CEO Marc Benioff inserted himself into a national debate about crime in U.S. cities.

Rabobank says the latest rebound in the U.S. dollar is being driven largely by short-covering, rather than a shift in underlying fundamentals, as much of the bad news and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts were already priced in. The bank expects this adjustment phase to extend in the near term, allowing markets to reassess U.S. fundamentals once normal data releases resume.

The absence of official U.S. economic data amid the government shutdown is making it difficult to fine-tune expectations around Fed policy, Rabobank notes. Meanwhile, U.S.–China trade developments could influence both inflation and growth forecasts in the coming months, potentially shaping the dollar’s direction into year-end.

Further ahead, Rabobank warns that questions over Fed independence could return to the spotlight in the spring as Chair Jerome Powell’s term nears its end. Such concerns, it says, would point to scope for a broad-based dip in the U.S. dollar, creating upside potential for the Australian dollar.

Rabobank expects AUD/USD to hold a choppy range near current levels, around the 0.65 area, over the next one to three months, as position-driven dollar strength continues.

• However, the bank still sees scope for another move higher in AUD/USD into the new year, targeting 0.68 on a 12-month view as market attention shifts back toward policy risks and trade developments.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

Goldman Sachs says the latest round of U.S. tariffs is adding notable stickiness to inflation, warning that the cumulative impact could keep core PCE inflation around 3.0% year-on-year by December 2025, well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target.

In its updated forecast, Goldman estimates that tariffs already implemented this year have raised core PCE prices by 0.44 percentage points, while new and proposed duties are expected to add another 0.6 percentage points over the coming year. The combined effect would slow the pace of disinflation and complicate the Fed’s policy outlook.

The bank said much of the inflation impulse reflects firms passing through higher import costs in goods categories exposed to China and Europe. Although broader domestic inflation pressures are easing—helped by cooling labour markets and stabilising shelter costs—trade policy is now acting as a countervailing force.

Goldman’s economists noted that without these tariff effects, core PCE would likely be closer to the mid-2% range, suggesting that trade tensions, rather than overheating demand, are behind the persistence of price growth heading into 2026.

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Goldman’s forecast suggests inflation could stay above target longer than markets expect, challenging hopes for faster Fed easing. Sticky core PCE readings driven by tariffs may reinforce caution among policymakers and weigh on Treasuries and rate-cut bets.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand electronic retail card spending

• dipped 0.5% in September m/m
• +1.0% y/y

The electronic cards data covers about 68 percent of core retail sales in the country, and is the main measure of monthly retail activity.

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Kiwi $ little changed, NZD/USD circa 0.5725

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (YoY) climbed from previous 0.9% to 1% in September

New Zealand Electronic Card Retail Sales (MoM) declined to -0.5% in September from previous 0.7%

• US major indices claw back some of the declines
• Goldman Sachs warns U.S. shutdown could be one of the longest in history
• Crude oil futures settle at $59.49
• More Paulson: Sees labor supply and demand for workers declining at about the same pace
• Fed Paulson: Favors gradual path of rate cuts over this year into next
• Ukraine’s Zelensky to meet Trump in Washington on Friday
• Major European indices close higher led the German DAX
• Trump: Would love to take off Iran sanctions, if they talk
• Gold tops $4100 for the first time.
• Silver trades to a new record high
• Israeli defense minister Katz: Any delay in releasing bodies will be a gross violation
• Can peace beget peace and the trend for it continue?
• While the US will continue to be void of data, Fedspeak and earnings will be the focus
• Peace. Hostages are released. The USD is mixed. Stocks are higher
• US Bessent: 100% tariffs doesn’t have to happen
• More from US Bessent: Trump’s Friday social media post turned the tables
• investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar steadies alongside risk mood, gold jumps

US stocks closed higher – erasing some of the declines but not all. The gains can be attributed to less confrontational remarks from Trump to China over the weekend, Trump said the U.S. wants to “help China, not hurt it,” adding that tariffs “don’t have to happen,” while Treasury Secretary Bessent reaffirmed that the U.S. remains open to talks. Maybe. Maybe not.

China’s export numbers today showed that they can export to other nations other than the US (or is that circumventing the tariffs through tariff arbitrage?). Let’s say China is still a wild card but the market’s fear was allayed today. PS the hostage release and hopes for lasting peace were also a feel good story that helped give equity markets a boost.

Nevertheless, tomorrow will be a key day for the stock market as the Nasdaq is closing the day, near the 100 hour MA at 22695 (closed at 22694).

The USD rose vs most of the currencies today.

EURUSD: The EURUSD saw the pair move briefly above the 100 hour MA in early trading, only to fall to swing area between 1.1548 to 1.15612 and find willing buyers. The price bias is to the downside with the 100 hour MA at 1.1602 the key resistance target and bias defining level.

GBPUSD: The GBPUSD also stayed below its 100 hour MA (currently at 1.3355) but is closing within a swing area between 1.3323 and 1.3341. Moving below the lower extreme and staying below will be more bearish. Moving above and also above the 100 hour MA at 1.3353 would be more bullish.

USDJPY: The USDJPY rose today and tested its higher 100 hour MA at 152.457. The price is trading at 152.19 currently. Staying below keeps the seller in play but there is more work to do to the downside if the sellers are to take more control.

Fed’s Anna Paulson also spoke for the first time since becoming Philadelphia Fed President, striking a dovish but balanced tone—emphasizing that policy should prioritize full employment and price stability, with gradual rate cuts expected through this year and into next.

The price of gold and silver both moved to new highs The US debt market was closed due to the Columbus Day holiday.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

Bank of America says the current AI data-centre boom is fundamentally different from the dot-com bubble, despite concerns about excessive spending and stretched valuations.

Dow Jones/Market Watch convey the info. In summary:

BofA said big tech firms are investing heavily in AI infrastructure to defend market share and capture new revenue streams, even before related earnings arrive. The analysts warned of “some risk of overbuilding” but see key differences from past manias.

• First, cloud providers are running their systems at high utilisation, with Nvidia’s three-year-old Hopper chips still in strong demand — unlike the “dark fibre” glut of the late 1990s.
• Second, AI spending is cash-flow funded, not debt-fuelled, with top providers generating over 30% of operating cash flow against about 25% capex intensity.
• Third, the macro backdrop is more supportive, with rate cuts expected instead of tightening cycles that preceded earlier crashes.
• And finally, valuations are far healthier: Nvidia trades at around 29× 2026 earnings, well below its earnings-growth rate and a fraction of dot-com-era multiples.

BofA said it remains “vigilant but optimistic” on chipmakers, naming Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD and Credo as preferred picks. The bank sees US/China tariff tensions, rather than a speculative bubble, as the biggest near-term risk.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

NZD/USD is still stuck near multi-month lows approaching the 0.5700 handle, opening up a fresh trading week with limited day-to-day changes but still leaning into the weak side.

NZD/USD is still stuck near multi-month lows approaching the 0.5700 handle, opening up a fresh trading week with limited day-to-day changes but still leaning into the weak side.