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Look no further than the automotive industry for the latest indication of a potential “K-Shaped” economy for U.S. consumers.

The Australian Dollar (AUD) steadies against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, with the AUD/USD pair climbing back above 0.6500 after slipping to its lowest level since August 27, around 0.6472, on Friday.

GBP/JPY roiled on Monday, churning chart paper near the 203.00 handle after arresting a two-day backslide from 15-month highs above 205.00.

Crude oil futures are settling at $59.49. That’s up $0.59 on the day. The high price for the day reached $60.17. The low was at $59.

The price is moving away from the swing area from August to mid September which bottomed the pair between $61.45 and $61.94. Staying below that area keeps the sellers more in control. The low price for 2025 was reached at $55.15 back on April 8th, and would be the target for sellers on further downside momentum.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

The AUDUSD experienced a sharp selloff on Friday following news of new China tariffs, which triggered a wave of risk aversion across the markets. However, sentiment improved over the weekend after more conciliatory comments from President Trump, prompting the pair to gap higher at the weekly open and extend its gains through the Asian-Pacific session.

That rebound carried the price back toward its broken 100-day moving average, currently near 0.65309. The day’s high reached 0.6532, just a pip above that key level, before sellers stepped in to cap the rally. The subsequent pullback found support during the late European and early U.S. sessions, with the price twice testing the upper boundary of a swing area that dates back to late August between 0.6500 and 0.65046. The double bottom at 0.6505 reinforced the area’s technical importance as a short-term support zone.

At current levels near 0.6522, the pair sits in the middle of a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. The 100-day moving average at 0.65309 continues to act as resistance, while the 0.6500–0.65046 region holds firm as support.

A move higher would shift focus to the next resistance zone between 0.6539 and 0.6544, followed by the falling 100-hour moving average at 0.6554 and the 50% retracement midpoint at 0.65603. Conversely, a break below 0.6500 would expose 0.6481 as the next downside target, with last week’s low near 0.6464 serving as a key level for bearish continuation.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

USD/JPY clawed its way back above the 152.00 handle on Monday, paring away some of last Friday’s steep tariff-headline-fueled losses.

With less than 24 hours ahead of new U.S. government port fees on Chinese-made freight vessels, importers are grappling with additional tariffs.

Kicking off the week with a bang, OpenAI announced another massive data center buildout partnership.

In July, OpenAI signed a five-year cloud deal with Oracle, which is confident that the startup will be able to pay its bills.

• The Fed has great sources of information even with the government shutdown.
• Next year is a long way off in terms of monetary policy.
• So far seen both labor supply and demand for workers declining at about the same pace.
• The breakeven rate for monthly jobs is lower than it was and hard to assess right now.
• Suspect the breakeven rate is lower than 75K per month.
• Would not want to step on a productivity boom
• the Fed should explore what productivity growth can be.
• Muted tariff inflation so far is a testament to business creativity in managing costs.
• Do not see the type of demand conditions that would turn a series of supply shocks into persistent inflation.
• The Fed will have to fields way to the neutral rate.
• Growth right now is strong, but hard to see how that is sustained.
• If inflation shows a burst the Fed would have to react
• Market expectations are generally more reliable than household surveys on inflation expectations.

More dovish comments from Chicago Fed Pres. Paulson

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.