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The AUDUSD started the week on a strong note, breaking above recent resistance to post a new high for 2025 on Monday. However, that bullish breakout proved short-lived. Price quickly reversed lower, falling back below the key swing area between 0.6493 and 0.6500 (see red numbered circles), and momentum accelerated as the pair broke below the 100-hour moving average (blue line).

Since then, sellers have remained in control. Attempts to correct higher on Tuesday and Thursday were capped at the 100-hour MA, reinforcing its role as a strong dynamic resistance. The inability to push back above this level keeps the bearish bias intact.

To the downside, the area around 0.6406 has emerged as a firm support zone, holding multiple tests dating back to last Thursday and Friday, as well as during trade yesterday and again today. The repeated bounces from this area suggest that buyers are defending the level, setting up a clear floor.

Key levels to watch:

• Support:
  • Key floor: 0.6406
  • Below that: 0.6387 to 0.6391 (swing area)

  Resistance:
  • 100-hour MA/200 hour/200 day MA (currently near 0.6445-48)
  • Swing zone: 0.6493–0.6500

As long as price holds below the 100-hour MA, sellers remain in control, with the downside risk building on a break of 0.6406. A move above the 100-hour MA and MA cluster near 0.6445 to 0.6448 would be needed to shift short-term sentiment.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate rose sharply to 3.8% from 2.2% helped largely by the sharp rise in net exports. In their own words:

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2025 is 3.8 percent on May 30, up from 2.2 percent on May 27. After recent releases from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Economic Analysis, the nowcast of the contribution of net exports to second-quarter real GDP growth increased from -0.64 percentage points to 1.45 percentage points, while the nowcasts of second-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and second-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 3.7 percent and -0.2 percent, respectively, to 3.3 percent and -1.4 percent.

The next GDPNow update is Monday, June 2. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a list of upcoming releases.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

Tech stocks struggle while healthcare gains: Today’s market overview

The US stock market is showcasing a dynamic landscape today, characterized by struggles within the semiconductor sector and encouraging growth in healthcare stocks. Let’s dive into the current trends, sector performances, and strategic insights to help investors navigate these volatile times.

📉 Semiconductor Struggles: A Red Day for Tech

• Nvidia (NVDA) leads the downturn in semiconductors, sliding 1.33%. Such declines might raise concerns over demand forecasts or recent earnings reports.
• Other semiconductor giants, including AMD (-1.48%) and Micron (-2.16%), are also under pressure, possibly indicating broader market skepticism in the tech space.

🚀 Healthcare Sector: Leading the Charge

• Eli Lilly (LLY) shines with a 1.74% increase, catapulting the healthcare sector into the spotlight. New drug approvals or favorable clinical trial results might be contributing factors.
• Other key players like Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) see modest gains, up 0.46%, signaling investor confidence in stable medical stocks.

🏢 Consumer and Financial Sectors: Mixed Reactions

• Amazon (AMZN) experiences a slight dip of 0.32%, reflecting nuanced sentiment amidst broader cyclicals, possibly weighed down by e-commerce competition.
• Financials show resilience with Visa (V) up 0.55%, steering the sector towards cautious optimism.

📚 Overall Market Analysis

• The market is emblematic of mixed signals, with challenges in tech offset by healthcare’s robust performance.
• Investors are displaying caution, potentially influenced by macroeconomic indicators or geopolitical tensions that might impact tech dependencies.

🌟 Strategic Recommendations

Considering today’s market environment, investors should:

• Monitor tech stocks closely as they adjust to market pressures; any positive news might offer rebound opportunities.
• Consider increasing exposure to healthcare sectors, where companies like Eli Lilly are capturing growth underpinned by innovation and regulatory success.
• Diversify across performing sectors to hedge against potential downturns within more volatile industries.

Stay engaged with Forexlive.com for comprehensive insights and analysis on the evolving market trends, ensuring your portfolio remains robust amidst fluctuating dynamics. Visit us regularly to keep abreast of real-time market updates and expert opinions. 📈

This article was written by Itai Levitan at www.forexlive.com.

After attempting to break higher this week, USDCAD buyers continue to come up short at key resistance levels. On Thursday, the pair tried and failed to move above both the 200-hour moving average and the 50% retracement of the May trading range, stalling momentum.

Today, after rallying in the Asian Pacific session, the price In early European trading had another brief move above the 200-hour MA, but that too failed, reinforcing the ceiling. The price has since rotated back to the downside and is now trading below the 100-hour moving average at 1.37968, a level that is now acting as resistance. Staying below this level keeps the sellers in control in the short term.

The next key support comes into play at the swing area between 1.37498 and 1.37724, which held several lows earlier in May. A break below this zone could increase bearish pressure.

Key technical levels:

Resistance:

• 100-hour MA: 1.37968
• 38.2% of the May range at 1.38107
• 200-hour MA 1.3818

Support:
• Swing zone: 1.37498 to 1.37724
• Low for May: 1.36841

As long as USDCAD remains below the moving averages, the short-term technical bias favors sellers.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.

• Prior +2.2%
• CPI (HICP) M/M +0.2% vs +0.1% expected
• Prior +0.5%
• Core CPI Y/Y +2.9% vs +2.9% prior

Slightly higher than expected figures but nothing that will worry the ECB for the time being.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at www.forexlive.com.

• Preliminary 50.8. Last month 52.2
• Univ of Michigan sentiment final 52.2 vs 51.0 estimate
• Current conditions 58.6 vs 57.6 preliminary and 59.6 prior month
• Expectations 47.9 vs 46.5 preliminary and 47.3 prior month. 2nd worse for the year.

Inflation expectations:

• 1 year inflation expectations 6.6% vs 7.3% preliminary. Prior month 6.5%. Down from the preliminary.
• 5-year inflation expectations 4.2% vs 4.6% preliminary. Prior month 4.4%. A move lower for the month.

Joanne Hsu from the Univ. of Michigan says:

Consumer sentiment was unchanged from April, ending four consecutive months of plunging declines. Sentiment had ebbed at the preliminary reading for May but turned a corner in the latter half of the month following the temporary pause on some tariffs on China goods. Expected business conditions improved after mid-month, likely a consequence of the trade policy announcement. However, these positive changes were offset by declines in current personal finances stemming from stagnating incomes throughout May. Overall, consumers see the outlook for the economy as no worse than last month, but they remained quite worried about the future.

Year-ahead inflation expectations were little changed at 6.6%, inching up from 6.5% last month. This is the smallest increase since the election and marks the end of a four-month streak of extremely large jumps in short-run expectations. Notably, long-run inflation expectations fell back from 4.4% in April to 4.2% in May. This is the first decline seen since December 2024 and ends an unprecedented four-month sequence of increases. Given that consumers generally expect tariffs to pass through to consumer prices, it is no surprise that trade policy has influenced consumers’ views of the economy. In contrast, despite the many headlines about the tax and spending bill that is moving through Congress, the bill does not appear to be salient to consumers at this time.

China helped in the final readings

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at www.forexlive.com.