News

The Indian Rupee (INR) remains steady against the US Dollar (USD) on Monday, after registering losses in the previous session.

NZD/USD extends its losses for the fifth successive session, trading around 0.5740 during the early European hours on Monday. The daily chart’s technical analysis signals a potential bullish reversal as the pair price moves ahead in the descending wedge pattern.

Fundamental
Overview

Gold had a positive day on
Friday as it found support from the risk-off sentiment caused by Trump’s threat
of substantially increasing tariffs on China. Over the weekend, we had more
soothing comments from Trump and other US officials which triggered a recovery
in risk sentiment.

Despite the positive risk
sentiment, gold started the week on a positive note and extended the gains into
a new all-time high this morning. The market has been mostly driven by inertia given
the lack of bearish catalysts.

In the bigger picture, gold
should remain in an uptrend as real yields will likely continue to fall amid
the Fed’s dovish reaction function. In the short-term though, a hawkish repricing
in interest rates expectations will likely trigger a correction, but for that
we will need strong US labour market data or a hot US CPI next week.

Gold
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe

On the daily chart, we can
see that gold had a positive day on Friday following Trump’s threat of a
substantial increase in tariffs on China. This rally went so much parabolic
that it’s basically useless to look at the daily timeframe at the moment, so we
need to zoom in to see some more details.

Gold Technical Analysis
– 4 hour Timeframe

On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price bounced near the 3,939 level and extended the rally into a
new all-time high this morning. From a risk management perspective, the buyers
will have a better risk to reward setup around the trendline to position for
further upside, while the sellers will look for a break lower to target a deeper
pullback into the 3,819 level next.

Gold
Technical Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe

On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that the price already reached the upper bound of the average daily range for today. This doesn’t mean
it cannot continue, but we can usually see some consolidation or a pullback at
such limits. In this case, if the price fall back below the previous all-time
high at 4,059, we can expect the sellers to pile in to position for a drop into
the trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will likely continue to step in
around these levels with a defined risk below the 4,059 level to keep pushing
into new highs.

Upcoming
Catalysts

This week is going to be very light again in
terms of data releases given the US government shutdown. Data like Retail Sales
and Jobless Claims won’t be released. We will have lots of Fed speakers though
with Fed Chair Powell scheduled for tomorrow. Given the lack of key US data
though, it’s very unlikely to see a change in stance. For now, we know that
only the US CPI will be published despite the shutdown, which is scheduled for
Friday October 24.

This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

EUR/USD stands comfortably above 1.1600, trading at 1.1615 at the time of writing on Monday, as the latest trade rift between the US and China has hurt the US Dollar, and the US federal government remains closed with little prospects of an upcoming solution.The US Dollar dropped on Friday after US P

The US Dollar is hesitating right above the 0.8000 line against the Swiss Franc on Monday, with investors wary that the trade rift between the US and China might lead to a full-blown trade war.US President Trump soothed investors on Sunday by easing his tone against China in a social media post that

Here is what you need to know on Monday, October 13:

Here is what you need to know on Monday, October 13:

• Calls on US to act on the basis of equality, respect, and mutual benefit

This is their latest communique when briefing about Trump’s latest tariffs threat. It’s the usual salvo between the two and we’ll only see things get done closer to the 1 November deadline. Beijing has already signaled it will stick with using rare earth export controls as their tool to manage the US, and the latter is responding with tariffs again. Sound familiar? That’s basically the same position we got back in April to May.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.

Monday starts quietly, with bank holidays in the U.S. in observance of Columbus Day and in Canada for Thanksgiving Day.

On Tuesday, Australia will release the RBA monetary policy meeting minutes, while in the U.K., the focus will be on labor market data, including the average earnings index 3m/y, claimant count change, and the unemployment rate.

Later in the day, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak at a moderated discussion on the economic outlook and monetary policy at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Meeting in Philadelphia, with questions from the audience expected.

Thursday will be busier, with Australia publishing its employment change and unemployment rate, while in the U.S., attention will turn to the PPI m/m, retail sales m/m, and potentially the weekly unemployment claims, but only if the ongoing government shutdown ends.This also applies to Friday, when the U.S. is scheduled to release housing market data, including building permits and housing starts.

Throughout the week, several FOMC members are also scheduled to deliver remarks.

In the U.K., the consensus for the average earnings index 3m/y is 4.7%, unchanged from the previous reading, while the unemployment rate is also expected to hold steady at 4.7%.

With wage growth still elevated and showing few signs of cooling, the Bank of England is unlikely to shift its policy stance in the near term. Persistent inflation pressures, combined with looming fiscal tightening, continue to weigh on household spending. From a monetary policy perspective, the BoE is expected to keep rates on hold through the end of the year.

The U.S. inflation report has been rescheduled for release on October 24, as announced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This timing means the FOMC will have access to the latest inflation data ahead of its meeting at the end of the month.

Inflation in the U.S. remains above the Fed’s target. Consensus expectations point to a 0.4% monthly increase in the headline CPI, which would lift the annual rate to 3.1%, while core inflation is projected to hold steady at 3.1%.

The uptick in headline inflation is expected to be largely caused by energy, with gasoline prices and a rebound in energy services contributing most to the gains, according to Wells Fargo analysts. Although food prices have shown signs of stabilization, underlying inflationary pressures remain broad. This persistence underpins the Fed’s cautious approach and suggests policymakers will continue to stress vigilance regarding price dynamics.

In Australia, the consensus for the employment change is +20.0K versus the prior –5.4K, while the unemployment rate is expected to edge up from 4.2% to 4.3%.

A rebound in employment is anticipated this week, though Westpac analysts project a slightly smaller gain of around 15K, enough to keep the employment-to-population ratio steady near 64%.

They also highlight a shift in the composition of job creation. The “care economy,” which accounted for most of the employment growth through 2023–24, has seen its contribution roughly halve, while the market sector appears to be stabilizing as earlier weakness in hospitality fades.

Participation is expected to remain at 66.8%, and when combined with projected employment outcomes, this would result in an unemployment rate of 4.3%. Over the longer term, demographic trends are still expected to support a structurally higher participation rate.

In the U.S., the consensus for retail sales m/m is +0.4% versus the prior +0.6%, while core retail sales m/m are expected to rise 0.3% compared with 0.7% previously.

Retail sales data surprised to the upside last month, driven by firm auto sales, robust online activity, and higher prices. Even after adjusting for inflation, spending advanced at a solid pace, reinforcing signs that households remain willing to spend despite persistent price pressures.

The Q2 real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) were revised up to a 2.5% pace, and Q3 spending now appears to be tracking closer to 3.0% annualized, roughly double earlier projections and consistent with 2024’s overall trend.

For September, retail sales are expected to rise 0.4%. However, headwinds are building: tariffs could increasingly strain household budgets, and as income growth moderates, consumer resilience may begin to wane, Wells Fargo analysts said.

This article was written by Gina Constantin at investinglive.com.

• Eurostoxx +0.5%
• Germany DAX +0.5%
• France CAC 40 +0.5%
• UK FTSE +0.1%
• Spain IBEX +0.6%
• Italy FTSE MIB +0.5%

The bounce here chips away at a decent chunk of the drop from Friday but lower is lower at the end still. US futures are also pointing up with hopes that Trump or China will deescalate tensions before the 1 November deadline hits. Trump is now in Israel to mark his victory lap on the Gaza peace deal, so any US-China headlines might have to wait. S&P 500 futures are also ramping up today, up 1.5% currently.

This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.