News

• ECB’s Lane will be speaking on monetary policy on Wednesday. de Guindos also speaking.
• Reuters poll: RBA expected to cut rates in August, more easing likely by year-end
• UBS: Emerging market stocks not fully pricing in tariff risks
• Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor (Economic) Hunter speaking soon
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) leaves rates unchanged, as expected
• China June CPI +0.1% y/y (expected +0.0%)
• Hassett emerging as serious contender to be next Fed chair (not a typo)
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 7.1541 (vs. estimate at 7.1806)
• More on Trump’s 50% copper tariff rate to hit within just 30 days
• Nissan halts production of three models for Canada at two US plants due to tariffs
• U.S. tariff revenue could reach $300 billion this year, says Bessent
• Reports are that Trump’s 50% tariff rate will come into effect within just 30 days
• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser: Enormous amount of uncertainty in global economy
• Trump says releasing tariff details for 7 or more countries Wednesday morning
• RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speech makes no mention of current monetary policy
• Gold ETFs see largest inflows in five years amid trade war concerns: WGC
• ICYMI – Goldman Sachs ramped up its forecasts for the S&P 500, to 6600 from 6100
• J.P. Morgan revises EMFX overweight call, citing overbought signals
• Oil: private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil build vs draw expected
• WallStreetJournal:Latest Trump threats could lift tariff rate closer to 20%, Deutsche Bank
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 8 Jul: USD mixed as markets continued to digest tariffs
• BoJ official says recent rises in Japan’s food, rice prices stronger than expected
• Trade ideas thread – Wednesday, 9 July, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas

The USD gained ground during the session, with USD/JPY notably climbing above 147.00. Trump again took to social media to discuss tariffs, saying he would release details on new tariffs targeting seven or more countries on Wednesday morning (U.S. time), with additional announcements expected in the afternoon.

A few events from the session are worth highlighting:

• A private survey of U.S. oil inventories showed a large build, in stark contrast to the draw that had been expected. The official government data is due during U.S. hours—let’s see if the surprise is confirmed.

• From China, June inflation data showed y/y CPI rising for the first time in five months, though only by 0.1%. Meanwhile, PPI deteriorated sharply, falling 3.6% y/y—its biggest drop since July 2023.

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its cash rate unchanged at 3.25%, as expected. In its statement, the RBNZ noted that if medium-term inflation pressures continue easing as projected, the policy committee anticipates further rate cuts. NZD/USD initially popped higher but later gave up gains as broader U.S. dollar strength returned.

• The Wall Street Journal reported that Trump adviser Kevin Hassett is emerging as a serious contender for the next Federal Reserve Chair, having met with Trump twice in June to discuss the role.

In geopolitics:

• The White House is considering sending another Patriot air defence system to Ukraine.

• Taiwan launched its largest-ever military drills, underscoring growing tensions in the region.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

1045 GMT / 0645 US Eastern time:

• Philip Lane, member of the executive board of the European Central Bank, and the bank’s chief economist, will deliver aA speech on a broad perspective on the monetary policy agenda at the ECB

1300 GMT / 0900 US Eastern time:

• European Central Bank’s Vice President Luis de Guindos will

  Speak at an event held in San Lorenzo del Escorial, outside Madrid. – 1300 GMT

—

ECB speeches will get much more interesting as EUR/USD approaches 1.2 … that big round number will be a line in the sand for the Bank. Perhaps will prompt further rate cuts.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Economists widely expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.60% in August, following this week’s unexpected decision to hold rates steady. All 30 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll forecast the cut, with Australia’s four major banks—ANZ, CBA, NAB, and Westpac—also backing the call.

The RBA has already delivered two 25 bp cuts this year (in February and May), but paused in April and July as it waits for clearer signs that inflation is sustainably moving toward its 2.5% target midpoint.

The poll’s median forecast sees the cash rate at 3.35% by end-2025, with most economists expecting one more cut after August. That’s a shift from last week’s poll, where many anticipated the rate would fall to 3.10% by year-end. The latest inflation data, due later this month, will likely be key to confirming the RBA’s next move.

This time,. for sure!

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.

Earlier from Trump on tariffs:

• Trump says releasing tariff details for 7 or more countries Wednesday morning
• with more to follow in the afernoon

Its been a slow burn sort of session with the UISD tracking dradually higher.

Most notable is the yen, with USD/JPY hitting its highest since June 23:

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.